Weekend Predictions: Will Audiences Find Doctor Too Strange?

November 3, 2016

Doctor Strange

Doctor Strange is the latest installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and arguably the strangest one. It is widely expected to dominate the box office this weekend. Trolls is expected to open way back in second place, but still have a strong showing. The final wide release of the week is Hacksaw Ridge, which appears to be getting lost in the crowd. This weekend last year. Spectre and The Peanuts Movie had a one-two punch that earned a combined $115 million. I think Doctor Strange / Trolls will top that figure giving 2016 the win in the year-over-year comparison.

Doctor Strange looks to continue the Marvel Cinematic Universe winning streak at the box office. It has already continued its winning streak with critics earning 90% positive reviews. Many of these reviews are glowing and most critics say seeing this movie on the big screen is an absolute must. Advance ticket sales suggest a lot of people are going to do just that over the weekend. At this point, a $75 million opening would be seen as a bit of a disappointment, while getting to $100 million is very unlikely, but not out of the question. I think $85 million is likely the safest bet, while its reviews should help its legs over the coming weeks. If things go really well, it will still be in semi-wide release at Christmas.

Trolls is the latest digitally animated family flick to come out this year. This one is earning great reviews and the buzz is solid for counter programming. On the other hand, it is counter-programming and it likely won’t make half as much as Doctor Strange. Back to the original hand, I think it will earn close to $38 million during its opening weekend and just over $100 million in total. That’s not enough to be considered a monster hit, but assuming it does as well internationally, it will break even early in its home market run.

Hacksaw Ridge is an Oscar-bait film about a real-life soldier who is a pacifist. He joins the army to become a medic, but is stuck in a rifle group and branded a coward. The reviews are 90% positive, which is award-worthy; however, its buzz isn’t very loud and there are two much bigger movies opening ahead of it. Worst case scenario has the film opening below $10 million. I think $13 million is more likely, but that is not a great start.

I’m confident that Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween got a Halloween boost last weekend, as it plummeted on November 1st. It will suffer an equally big decline this weekend, falling from first to fourth place with just over $7 million. That said, it will hit $65 million this weekend and will finish its run with over $75 million. That might be enough to cover its combined production and advertising budget.

Inferno will round out the top five with just under $7 million over the weekend. At this pace, it will break even based on its international numbers, so at least the studio won’t be in a total panic.

- Doctor Strange Comparisons
- Trolls Comparisons
- Hacksaw Ridge Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Inferno, Trolls, Doctor Strange, Hacksaw Ridge, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, Marvel Cinematic Universe