2020 Awards Season: Golden Globes Nominations

December 11th, 2019

The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods. More...

Theater Averages: Lion King Says Goodbye to the Competition

July 25th, 2019

The Lion King not only earned first place on the overall chart, but it topped the theater average chart with an average of $40,586. Last week’s winner, The Farewell, landed in second place with an average of $32,723. David Crosby: Remember My Name was the final film in the $10,000 club earning an average of $10,871 in four theaters. More...

Theater Averages: Quiet Weekend

June 27th, 2019

There weren’t many new releases to talk about, but a surprising percentage of them landed in the $10,000 club. This includes the overall box office champ, Toy Story 4, which opened with an average of $26,428. Wild Rose was the best of the limited releases earning an average of $13,235 in four theaters, while Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am was right behind with an average of $12,013, also in four theaters. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Weekend Bests Estimates, Still Clobbered by Incredibles

June 18th, 2019

There is some good news to report, as the weekend final numbers beat both the projections based on Friday estimates and Sunday’s estimates. There’s also some bad news. Even with this improvement, the weekend was really soft at the box office. Men in Black: International led the way with just $30.04 million during its opening weekend, while only two other films topped $10 million over the weekend. This left the overall box office down 18% from last weekend to just $135 million. This is 50% lower than the same weekend last year; a decline that we normally only see when there is a misalignment in a holiday. However, in this case, it was due to Incredibles 2, which earned more by itself than the total box office did this year. This has left 2019 further behind 2018 and it is now off last year’s pace by 7.0% or $370 million at $4.99 billion to $5.36 billion. Several weeks worth of gaining ground has gone in a single weekend. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Skies for MiB

June 16th, 2019

According to weekend estimates, Men in Black: International is topping projections based on Friday estimates, but is still weaker than predicted with $28.5 million. This is a pleasant surprise, as the film’s reviews are terrible and its B from CinemaScore strongly suggested weaker legs. Maybe it will continue to surprise going forward. The film is doing much better internationally with $73.7 million on 41,400 screens in 56 markets. This includes $26.3 million in China, $5.1 million in Russia, $4.9 million in South Korea, and $3.9 million in Mexico. On the downside, the film has opened in most major markets, so it will be mostly coasting on holdovers at this point. It should still earn enough to cover its production budget worldwide, but that’s not enough to break even in any timely fashion. More...

Friday Estimates: Toy Story 4 needs to be a Monster Hit

June 15th, 2019

It is going to be a really bad weekend. All of the progress we made since Endgame came out could be erased in a week and if Toy Story 4 isn’t a monster hit, then 2019 will be in serious trouble, again. Men in Black: International led the way on Friday, but it only managed $10.4 million. Sony is projecting a $26.2 million opening weekend, which would be the studio’s biggest opening of the year so far. In fact, it would be the studio’s third biggest hit of the year after just three days. Yikes. The film’s reviews are terrible and it only managed a B from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect long legs. There are some rumors going around that the film didn’t cost as much as its official $110 million production budget, but even if those are true, this is still not a good start. Maybe it will thrive internationally. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Men in Black Open in the Black?

June 13th, 2019

It’s a busy weekend at the box office with the potential for four new entries in the top ten. Unfortunately, only one of those films, Late Night, is earning good reviews. The other films’ reviews range from mediocre reviews to depressing reviews. Likewise, the four film’s box office chances range from mediocre, with Men in Black: International expected to open south of $30 million, to depressing, with some suggesting Late Night and / or The Dead Never Die missing the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Incredibles 2 opened with $182.69 million. That’s more than the entire box office will make this weekend. 2019 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Theater Averages: Late Night Gets Off to an Early Start

June 13th, 2019

2019 set a new record on the theater average chart, as Late Night got off to the fastest start for a limited release so far earning an average of $61,576 in four theaters during its opening weekend. This is better than Echo in the Canyon managed just two weeks ago, although Avengers: Endgame still owns the overall record with an average of $76,601. The Last Black Man in San Francisco also did incredibly well with an average of $33,610 in seven theaters. This Ones for the Ladies was well back with an opening of $13,688 in one theater. Meanwhile, the overall number one film, The Secret Life of Pets 2, was the final film in the $10,000 club with an average of $10,229. More...

Weekend Estimates: Pets Don’t have a Fiery Rebirth with Just $47 million

June 9th, 2019

Neither of the two wide releases matched expectations over the weekend and in both cases, it could be the end of their respective franchises. The Secret Life of Pets 2 is earning first place with $47.11 million, which isn’t a bad result for a family film that cost $80 million to make. However, this estimate is 55% lower than the first film’s opening weekend. Internationally, it is adding $16.0 million over the weekend to its three-week total, which sits at $49.0 million. Additionally, it has yet to open in most international markets, so it should have long legs on this chart. However, it still isn’t living up to the original. Universal has to be looking at this numbers and deciding to move on from the franchise, even though this film will very likely break even sooner rather than later. Even a moderate decline for a hypothetical third film would put profitability in question. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Will it be Good Night for Limited Releases?

June 7th, 2019

Late Night should be the biggest box office hit of the week with an already scheduled wide expansion next weekend. However, it isn’t the only film that has a chance to do well. The Last Black Man in San Francisco is also earning some strong buzz, while there are a number of documentaries vying for audiences this week. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Dark Phoenix Soar Above Pets 2?

June 6th, 2019

It could be a real race on the box office chart this weekend. The Secret Life of Pets 2 isn’t generating as much buzz as I was expecting, while there is actually some good news surrounding Dark Phoenix’s box office chances. There’s no good news regarding its reviews, that’s for sure. Also coming out this weekend is Late Night, but it is now coming out in limited release with a wide expansion next week. That’s not a good sign. This does leave one more spot in the top five for a holdover, meaning Aladdin, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, and Rocketman will all remain in the top five for at least one more weekend. This weekend last year, Ocean’s 8 opened with a decent $41.61 million and both The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix should top that. 2019 should start the month with an easy win. More...

2019 Preview: June

June 1st, 2019

While the final weekend in May isn’t over yet, we can safely say the month was merely okay. It managed to keep pace with last May, but I was really hoping to cut into 2019’s deficit by a significant margin. June is not looking any better, at least not compared to 2018. There are two potential monster hits, The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Toy Story 4, as well as a trio of $100 million hits, Dark Phoenix, Men in Black: International, and Annabelle Comes Home. On the surface, this looks excellent; however, last June was even better on top with Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom earning a combined $1 billion domestically. Granted, the only other $100 million hit was Oceans 8, so this year should have a lot better depth. I don’t think it will be enough to gain any ground in the year-over-year comparison, which is the only way to really judge how a month is doing at this point. More...

Late Night Trailer

March 8th, 2019

Comedy starring Mindy Kaling and Emma Thompson opens June 7 ... Full Movie Details.

Katherine Newbury is a pioneer and legendary host on the late-night talk-show circuit. When she’s accused of being a “woman who hates women,” she puts affirmative action on the to-do list, and—presto!—Molly is hired as the one woman in Katherine’s all-male writers’ room. But Molly might be too little too late, as the formidable Katherine also faces the reality of low ratings and a network that wants to replace her. Molly, wanting to prove she’s not simply a diversity hire who’s disrupting the comfort of the brotherhood, is determined to help Katherine by revitalizing her show and career—and possibly effect even bigger change at the same time. More...