Weekend Estimates: Venom Flexes it Muscles and Keeps the Competition Down
October 14, 2018
Last weekend, the new releases topped expectations by a significant degree. It appears I got caught up in that enthusiasm, because the three wide releases this weekend all missed expectations. Fortunately, the holdovers helped compensate. Venom is projected to fall just 56% to $35.6 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $142.6 million. This is a stunningly strong hold, given its reviews, its B plus from CinemaScore, and historical averages for comic book films. Internationally, it pulled in $69.7 million and globally it already has $378.1 million. The film cost $100 million or $116 million, depending on how you look at things. It’s $116 million on the screen, but it cost Sony $100 million after tax breaks. Depending on how much the film cost to advertise and how much Sony’s share of the box office is, the film might have already broken even. It will certainly break even by this time next week.
A Star is Born also held on better than expected with a projected $28.0 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $94.2 million. The film is not doing as well internationally with $20.2 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $41.2 million. However, it will break even before it reaches the home market, so Warner Bros. should be more than happy with this result. Also, if it can pick up some major Awards Season nominations, it will be able to earn additional dollars at the box office and become an even bigger hit on the home market.
It is a very close race for third place, but it appears First Man will stay ahead of Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween with $16.5 million over the weekend. Its reviews are 88% positive, but it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, so audiences are not connecting with the film as much as critics did. It is way too early to tell where the film will end up internationally. It is projected to earn $8.6 million in 22 markets during its opening weekend, including a $3.12 million debut in the U.K., which is nearly identical to the film’s opening here, given the relative size of the two markets.
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween is in a virtual tie with $16.23 million over the weekend, but that could change when the final numbers show up. The film’s reviews rose to 43% positive, which is nothing to celebrate, but also nothing to panic about. On the other hand, it only managed a B from CinemaScore, which is terrible for a family film.
Smallfoot will remain in the fifth place with a projected $9.3 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $57.6 million. At this pace, it should match its $80 million costs domestically, which is enough to keep the studio happy.
Bad Times at the El Royale will miss the top five. In fact, it is projected to land in seventh place with $7.23 million over the weekend. Its reviews have slipped to just over 70% positive, which is still good, but not great. On the other hand, it only managed a B minus from CinemaScore, which suggests short legs.
- First Man Comparisons
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- Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween Comparisons
- Bad Times at the El Royale Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Venom, Smallfoot, A Star is Born, Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, First Man, Bad Times at the El Royale