Weekend predictions: Make-or-break Memorial Day weekend is here
May 28, 2021
The last fourteen months have turned the movie industry upside down. This weekend might be the one that makes things start to seem a little more normal. Two big releases from major studios arrived in theaters yesterday evening for preview shows, and will be hoping to capitalize on the long weekend to deliver significant results at the box office. We’re already seeing some promising results, with A Quiet Place: Part II earning $4.8 million from previews, and Cruella hitting $1.4 million. Here’s what that suggests for their prospects for the weekend, and how our model sees the weekend shaking out.
Before getting to the model’s prediction for A Quiet Place, let’s address that $4.8-million preview number.
It’s a little ahead of Birds of Prey, which had $4.0 million in previews leading in to a $33 million opening weekend in February last year, and somewhat behind John Wick: Chapter 3’s $5.9 million in previews, which translated into a $57 million opening weekend. The original A Quiet Place earned $4.3 million from previews on its way to a $50 million opening weekend.
A Quiet Place is an unusual horror movie, but if we use horror as a benchmark, then a three-day opening weekend around 10 times the preview figure is the norm. For example, The Nun earned $5.4 million in previews and $54 million over its opening weekend; The Meg turned $4 million in previews into a $45 million opening; and Annabelle: Creation earned $4 million in previews ahead of a $35 million debut.
So a three-day opening over $40 million looks likely for A Quiet Place, and I’d expect something closer to $50 million. Adding in another $10 million to $15 million on Monday, and we’re looking at a four-day Memorial Day Weekend opening around $55 million to $65 million. That would put the film in the top 20 Memorial Day openings of all time, not adjusted for inflation. Even adjusted for inflation, it would be in the top 25, and on a par with Terminator Salvation, which made an inflation-adjusted $63 million on its 4-day Memorial Day opening weekend in 2009.
Given the circumstances, that would be an impressive performance. The issue with that projection is that we don’t know how preview figures are going to translate into full weekend numbers. We’re still at a point where the “early adopters” are dominating theatrical attendance, and that probably means that preview numbers are skewed a little high. In other words, a three-day weekend closer to $40 million, and four-day weekend in the mid- to upper-40s wouldn’t be a surprise, even with good preview earnings already in the bank.
As our model shows, even a $40-million 3-day weekend would be cause for celebration.
Under normal circumstances a blockbuster horror sequel like this would be expected to earn around $75 million on opening weekend. Given the current state of the market, our model thinks that translates into a 3-day weekend around $25 million. Note, however, that the model doesn’t adjust for it being Memorial Day weekend. That’s because holiday weekends have performed just like regular weekends so far in the pandemic. Personally, I think that will change this weekend (and I had the foresight to go on record saying so earlier this week). Given the film’s previews, its earnings would have to drop off a cliff over the next few days to miss the $25-million figure.
All-in-all, a weekend around $50 million, which is close to double the model’s prediction seems likely, which would mean A Quiet Place will have reached around 70% of its target audience this weekend.
Cruella’s $1.4 million preview earnings isn’t far off the norm for a family film. The Call of the Wild posted $1 million in previews in January last year on its way to a $25 million opening, and Onward’s $39 million debut included $2 million in preview box office. That points to a weekend around $30 million for Disney’s new film, which is again around twice the model’s prediction. Note, however, that the model already thinks 49% of family audiences are showing up in theaters and Disney’s average opening weekend for this kind of film is around $33 million.
So even though Cruella looks like it’ll finish second for the weekend, it might actually do even better than A Quiet Place 2 in terms of reaching its audience. Again, the preview number may be deceptive, but anything over $20 million would be a good performance, and it certainly seems headed that way. My expectation right now is for a weekend around $25 million.
Overall, even with the model’s modest predictions, the top six was expected to come in with around $50 million this weekend. If A Quiet Place: Part II earns $45 million over the three-day weekend, and Cruella hits $25 million over the same timeframe, that would put the top six around $80 million for three days. Adding another 25% for holiday Monday, and a total four-day box office of $100 million looks eminently achievable. That’s a good benchmark for the market as a whole.
One thing we can say with virtual certainly already is that we’ll see the best weekend at the box office in over a year. Fingers crossed that’s a record we’ll see broken multiple times over the next few months.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Cruella, A Quiet Place: Part II