Weekend Estimates: Bad Boys are Doing Well

January 26, 2020

Bad Boys for Life will remain in first place on the weekend chart with an estimated $34.0 million, which is down just 46% from the film’s opening weekend. This amazing hold not only beat predictions by a significant margin, it helped the film blow past $100 million yesterday. Its running tally will sit at $120.0 million at the end of the weekend, assuming the estimate holds. Internationally, the film held even better, earning $42 million on 12,700 screens in 58 markets for a total of $95 million so far. This includes a $4.7 million debut in Russia, as well as a $3.5 million hold in the U.K. The film is already ahead of the franchise average, both domestically and globally, while it is rapidly approaching first place in both. At this rate, not only will there be yet another sequel, I could see a spin-off happening as well.

1917 is also beating expectations by a large margin with an estimated $15.8 million haul over the weekend for a total of $103.9 million after a month of release. This is a fantastic result and it won’t even need to do well on Oscar night to be a financial success. Internationally, the film is adding $23.7 million over the weekend for a total of $96.6 million. If these estimates hold, then the film will crack $200 million worldwide, but it is close, so the final numbers won’t have to be too far off estimates to prevent it from getting to that milestone.

Dolittle is remaining in third place with $12.5 million over the weekend, which would push its running tally to $44.7 million after two weeks of release. It is doing better internationally, earning $13.2 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $46.4 million, if estimates hold. I know people are likely sick of hearing me say this, but this is a good result for a live-action family film, but a terrible result for a film that cost $175 million to make. This is a movie where a troubled production will end up costing Universal a fortune.

The Gentlemen is in fourth place according to estimates with an opening weekend of $11.03 million. That’s not a bad start for a film with a distribution deal that cost just $7 million. The film cost a lot more to advertise, so it will need decent legs and a healthy home market to break even, but there are positive signs there. Its reviews are solid and while its B plus from CinemaScore is nothing special, it shouldn’t really hurt its legs. Nearly half of the film’s audience, 48% to be more precise, were men over 25 years old, but that’s no surprise, as films like this tend to attract an older male demographic. Overall, the film audience was 60% male and 81% 25 years old and older. This older demographic will help its legs. There is some bad news for STX Entertainment, as they only have the distribution rights for the United States, and the film is being distributed by a plethora of companies around the world, so it can’t rely on international numbers to break even. It doesn’t even have the distribution rights for Canada.

Jumanji: The Next Level was a surprise entrant in the top five, earning an estimated $7.9 million over the weekend for a total of $283.4 million after seven weeks of release. If these estimates hold, then the film will fall just 19% at the box office. That’s amazing: the film now has a reasonable shot at $300 million domestically. It is also earning $9.6 million on 6,300 screens in 60 markets internationally for totals of $454 million / $738 million. It will get to $750 million globally, which is more than enough to earn a substantial profit.

On the other hand, The Turning is struggling, with an estimated opening of $7.3 million. Furthermore, its reviews terrible and it is one of only 21 films to ever earn an F-rating from CinemaScore. Amazingly, it is one of two films currently in theaters with an F-rating, as The Grudge also failed audiences. The film’s demographics were very evenly split with 54% 25 years old and older and 51% women. The film hasn’t really started its international run just yet. It did open in seventh place Mexico with $330,000, but that’s the most significant market to talk about.

- Weekend Box Office Chart
- Friday Box Office Chart
- Thursday Box Office Chart

- Friday Estimates
- Thursday Previews
- Weekend Predictions
- Theater Counts

- 2019 Domestic Chart
- 2020 Domestic Chart

C.S.Strowbridge

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Bad Boys For Life, Dolittle, The Grudge, Jumanji: The Next Level, The Turning, The Gentlemen, 1917, Bad Boys