Weekend Predictions: Can Ford get the Pole Position on the Angels?
November 14, 2019
There are three wide releases coming out this week and at the moment, all three of them have positive reviews. Unfortunately, that’s the end of the good news. Ford v Ferrari is the best new release of the week and should have no trouble earning first place on the box office. On the other hand, the film cost nearly $100 million to make, so it will likely struggle to break even any time soon. Charlie’s Angels cost half as much to make, but it is also on track to open with about half as much. The Good Liar is the smallest of the three new films and, with a more mature target audience, it is unlikely to have a big opening. Worse still, it is likely all three new releases this week will earn less than Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald opened with this weekend last year. 2019 is going to take another beating in the year-over-year competition and it might even be worse than last weekend was.
I’m not sure it is completely accurate to call Ford v Ferrari an Oscar-bait movie, but given its pedigree in front of and behind the camera, as well as its subject matter and its release date, I don’t think it is unfair to say it was made to at least earn some measure of Awards Season buzz. The film’s Tomatometer Score suggests it could pick up a number of major Awards Season nominations, but its average review score suggests it won’t be winning many of them. As for its box office chances, I’ve seen predictions ranging from the low $20 million range to the mid $30 million range. I really want it to land on the higher end, but the overall box office is quite weak and I fear it will only open with $24 million.
Charlie’s Angels is a reboot / delayed sequel to the Charlie’s Angels films from the early 2000s. I thought this film would be a midlevel hit at the box office, but while its reviews are solid, its buzz has not gone anywhere. Opening with $20 million or more seems very unlikely at this point, while it has the potential to barely open in double digits. I’m going with $14 million, which means the film will need a lot of help from international markets and / or the home market to break even any time soon.
Midway earned a surprise first place opening last weekend. Its reviews won’t help its legs, but it did earn an A from CinemaScore and its more mature target audience should also help its legs. On the high end, it could avoid a 50% drop-off earning just over $9 million. I think just over $8 million is more likely, but this would still be enough for the film to match its production budget domestically.
Playing with Fire is a live-action family film and family films tend to have long legs at the box office. On the other hand, the film’s reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore are not helping. It should still avoid a 50% decline, but it will be close with just under $7 million.
Doctor Sleep will be close behind with between $6 million and $7 million over the weekend. It has the best reviews of the sophomore class and its B plus from CinemaScore is great for a horror film. That said, even if the film manages amazing legs, it started out too slowly to be saved now.
The Good Liar will likely just miss the top five with just over $6 million. Its reviews are not great, but they are in the overall positive level so that should help. The film also has a more mature target audience, so its legs should be much better that average. On the other hand, a slow start will mean not a lot of theater owners will be interested in keeping it around for long, even if it does earn amazing legs.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Charlie’s Angels, The Good Liar, Midway, Doctor Sleep, Ford v. Ferrari, Playing with Fire, Charlie's Angels