2019 Preview: October
October 1, 2019
September ended on a bit of a weak note, but overall the month was excellent helping 2019 gain some ground on 2018. Can October continue this trend? There are certainly some potential box office hits coming out this month, starting with Joker, which opens the first weekend of the month and should be the biggest hit of the month. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is aiming for $150 million and should be a hit, even if it doesn’t match the original at the box office. There are also a handful of films with an outside shot at getting to $100 million and I wouldn’t be shocked if one of them made it to that milestone. Meanwhile, last October, Venom broke records during its opening weekend, while A Star is Born had stellar legs helping both earn more than $200 million domestically. I don’t think the top two films will be able to match that this year, but we do have better depth, for the most part, so perhaps 2019 will continue its winning ways and close ground, at least by a little bit.
October should get off to a fast start with Joker as the only wide release of the week. The film is generating a ton of buzz, not all of it positive and much of it not about the movie itself, but it could prove that there is no such thing as bad publicity. This weekend last year, Venom broke records during its opening weekend, but it was A Star is Born that won out in the end. There are some who think Joker will open with more than those two films combined, which would give 2019 a shot at a win. I don’t think that’s going to happen. In fact, there’s a chance Joker opens below Venom and doesn’t have the legs to make up the difference. Somewhere in-between is more likely.
This is one of those movies that might be amazing, but will have an insufferable fanbase regardless of the quality. I fear it is going to appeal to the same people who think Tyler Durden is the hero of Fight Club. It’s being described by some as a comic book movie for those who don’t like comic book movies, so be prepared to hear a lot of people call this a “real movie” for grownups, as opposed to Aquaman, which in their minds was made for kids. There’s also talk about this movie inspiring real world violence, so much so that the United States Military is said to be on the alert for possible attacks by Incels. (If you don’t know what Incels are, then you are living a better life and I’m not going to ruin it for you.) Additionally, the response by Todd Phillips to this latter controversy was disheartening. Not only didn’t he understand the threat, he reacted in a way that implied he didn’t understand the Joker as a character. This could very well be a comic book movie for those who hate comic book movies, but that means those who understand comic books in general, and the Joker as a character in particular, won’t enjoy the movie.
That said, the controversies should actually help it out at the box office and there are some who think it will open with more than $100 million. I’m not that bullish, but I do think it will get off to a fast enough start to be a success.
The second weekend of the month is a lot busier than the first with three films opening wide, two of which have at least a shot at $100 million, although I doubt either will actually get there. The Addams Family is a second-tier animated film based on a decades old TV show. It is Halloween themed, so that will help. Gemini Man is an action film where Will Smith is pitted against Will Smith. Will Smith doesn’t dominate the box office like he used to, but you can’t count out any of his action films when it comes to box office success. That leaves Jexi as counter-programming. It doesn’t need to earn $50 million to be a hit, which is good, because it’s not going to get there. This weekend last year, the biggest new release of the week was First Man, which barely earned more than $16 million. Assuming Joker doesn’t collapse, then 2019 has an excellent shot at returning to its winning ways after a two-week losing streak.
A horror family movie opening just a few weeks before Halloween. This seems like an easy win at the box office, but in this case, I think we will be grading on a curve. This is definitely a second-tier animated movie, or more accurately a third-tier one. This is not a comment on the film’s quality, but on its likely budget. It should do better than the live-action Goosebumps 2 did last year and become a solid midlevel hit. It could over-perform and get to $100 million domestically. On the other hand, we’ve seen a number of animated films fail to get halfway there and this could be another Angry Birds or UglyDolls on our hands. I choose to remain cautiously optimistic.
Will Smith plays an aging government assassin who wants to retire, but has to deal with a rival, who just happens to be a cloned younger version of himself. It is an intriguing premise and the early buzz was solid. ... Then the reviews started to trickle in. Granted, there are still only seven reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, so things could turn around, but I’m not hopeful. On the other hand, Will Smith is still a big star and he can lead a weaker movie to $100 million domestically. So if the reviews don’t get worse, getting to the century mark won’t be impossible.
Adam DeVine stars as a man completely dependent on his smart phone. When he gets an upgrade with a new digital assistant, Jexi, the assistant tries her best to help him out, including encouraging him to ask out a woman, played by Alexandra Shipp. When the pair actually become close, Jexi becomes jealous. This film reminds me of Her, only it’s more of a light-hearted Rom Com rather than a serious dramatic film aiming for Oscars. Jexi and Her likely have similar box office potential, so hopefully this film didn’t cost too much to make.
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil leads the third weekend in October and will likely have no trouble earning first place, even if it doesn’t match its predecessor. Meanwhile, another sequel, Zombieland: Double Tap, needs to match its predecessor at the box office to be considered a success. It shouldn’t be too hard to do this, not with ten years of ticket price inflation. Meanwhile, Jojo Rabbit is opening in limited release this week and if the buzz is correct, it will do well enough to top some of the wide releases coming out this month. This weekend last year, Halloween would have broken records, had Venom not broken them just two weeks earlier. It will be tough, but not impossible for Maleficent: Mistress of Evil to match that result. However, this year does appear to have better depth, so even if 2019 is a little weaker at the top, it could still come out ahead on the year-over-year comparison.
I liked the original Maleficent when I first saw it, In fact, the more of these live-action remakes I’ve seen, the more I love Maleficent. They took the characters we knew and crafted a new story to tell, rather than the remakes we’ve seen recently, some of which are practically scene-for-scene recreations. At the time, the film earned mixed reivews, but since then, its reputation has grown. On the one hand, this should help Mistress of Evil at the box office. On the other hand, it has been five years and that might prove to be too many to attract the same crowds as before. Furthermore, a lot of the potential audience might be burned out on these live-action remakes from Disney.
It has been ten years since Zombieland became a surprise hit, a big enough hit that a sequel seemed inevitable. I didn’t think it would take ten years. In fact, I had given up hope for a sequel more than a few years ago. The buzz surrounding Double Tap is good and while I don’t think it will sell as many tickets, it should at least make as much money at the box office. There are some out there who even think it will be a $100 million hit. I would love it if that happened, because the box office could use the good news, but I do think that’s a little too optimistic.
The final weekend of October is a terrible weekend to release a movie. It is too close to Halloween, which is a dead zone at the box office. It is also just a week away from the start of the Holiday box office season, so the upcoming competition is too much. There are still three wide releases coming out this week, but they look for like box office dumps than real contenders. Countdown is a horror film opening right before Halloween and that should help its opening weekend, but it will have very short legs. Black and Blue should have better legs and that might give it the win, eventually. Meanwhile, The Current War has bounced around every week this month, so I’m not 100% sure when it is coming out, if it is coming out. The biggest new release this weekend last year was Hunter Killer, which only managed fifth place with $6.65 million. There are two releases this year that have a chance to earn more during their opening weekend than that film earned in total. Hopefully this gives 2019 a solid win to end the month. One last note, The Last Full Measure was supposed to come out this week, but I believe it’s been pushed back to January.
A rookie cop catches some corrupt cops executing some gang members and records it on her bodycam. Now she has to figure out a way to get the footage to the media before either the corrupt cops or other members of the gang can kill her. The early reviews are not good and this is not a good week to release a movie. I think it is just being dumped here so the studio has an excuse when it fails to attract an audience. That said, it likely didn’t cost a ton of money, so it might still break even, eventually.
A nurse downloads an app that supposedly predicts how long you will live and it tells her she has only three days left. It’s a horror film opening the weekend before Halloween, so it should start fast and get a boost on October 31st, but it will collapse on November 1st and all but disappear from the box office after that.
This movie is a mess. It is being referred to as The Current War: The Director’s Cut in some cases, because it was one of the last film’s Harvey Weinstein forced changes to before the allegations against him came to light. Since the film changed distributors, the director was given a chance to re-edit the film back to his original vision, hence the name. The original version received mixed reviews and it is too soon to tell if the new version will fair any better. Unless it is now award-worthy, I don’t think it will be able to find an audience in theaters.
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Weekend of October 4th, 2019
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Joker
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Official Site: JokerMovie.net
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: October 4th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for strong bloody violence, disturbing behavior, language and brief sexual images.
Source: Based on Comic/Graphic Novel
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
IMAX: DMR, Psychological Thriller, Stand-Up Comedy, Origin Story, 1980s, Mental Illness, Poverty, Social Outcast
Directed By: Todd Phillips
Written By: Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix
Production Budget: Reported at $55 million
Box Office Potential: $225 million
Weekend of October 11th, 2019
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The Addams Family
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Official Site: https://www.addamsfamily.movie/
Distributor: MGM
Release Date: October 11th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for macabre and suggestive humor, and some action.
Source: Based on TV
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
3-D, 3-D - Shot in 3-D, New Jersey, Reality TV, Family Reunion, Kids Horror
Directed By: Conrad Vernon and Greg Tiernan
Written By: Erica Rivinoja, Matt Lieberman
Starring: Oscar Isaac, Charlize Theron, Chloë Grace Moretz, Finn Wolfhard, Conrad Vernon, Nick Kroll, Snoop Dogg, Bette Midler
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at between $40 million and $60 million
Box Office Potential: $85 million
Gemini Man
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Official Site: Skydance.com/Film/Gemini-Man
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: October 11th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for violence and action throughout, and brief strong language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords:
Hitmen, Cloning, Assassination, IMAX: DMR, Same Actor, Multiple Roles
Directed By: Ang Lee
Written By: David Benioff, Brian Helgeland, Andrew Niccol, Darren Lemke, David Benioff
Starring: Will Smith
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $90 million to $100 million
Box Office Potential: $80 million
Jexi
Official Site: #fill in official website domain#
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: October 11th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for strong/crude sexual content and language throughout, some drug use and graphic nudity.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Romance, Artificial Intelligence, Relationships Gone Wrong, Love Triangle
Directed By: Jon Lucas, Scott Moore
Written By: Jon Lucas, Scott Moore
Starring: Adam DeVine, Alexandra Shipp
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million
Weekend of October 18th, 2019
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Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
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Official Site: Movies.Disney.com/Maleficent-Mistress-of-Evil
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: October 18th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for intense sequences of fantasy action/violence and brief scary images.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
IMAX: DMR, Romance, Prince/Princess, Royalty, Dysfunctional Family, Bigotry, Fairies, Fairy Godmother, War, Delayed Sequel
Directed By: Joachim Ronnin
Written By: Micah Fitzerman-Blue, Linda Woolverton, Noah Harpster, Linda Woolverton
Starring: Angelina Jolie Pitt, Elle Fanning, Michelle Pfeiffer
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $160 million to $200 million
Box Office Potential: $155 million
Zombieland: Double Tap
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Official Site: Zombieland.com
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: October 18th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for bloody violence, language throughout, some drug and sexual content.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Zombies, Delayed Sequel, Fictionalized Version of Yourself, Road Trip
Directed By: Ruben Fleischer
Written By: Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick, David Callaham, Paul Wernick
Starring: Woody Harrelson, Jesse Eisenberg, Emma Stone, Abigail Breslin
Production Budget: $42 million
Box Office Potential: $80 million
Weekend of October 25th, 2019
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Black and Blue
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Official Site: BlackAndBlue.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: October 25th, 2019
MPAA Rating:
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords:
Beat Cops, Corrupt Cops, Drug Dealer, Gangs, Revenge, Fugitive / On the Run
Directed By: Deon Taylor
Written By: Peter A. Dowling
Starring: Naomie Harris
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimate at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million
Countdown
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Official Site: STXFilms.com/Countdown/
Distributor: STX Entertainment
Release Date: October 25th, 2019
MPAA Rating:
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Teenage Slasher, Internet, Predicted Death
Directed By: Justin Dec
Written By: Justin Dec
Starring: Elizabeth Lail
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at under $10 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million
The Current War
Official Site: No Official Site
Distributor: 101 Studios
Release Date: October 11th, 2019 (Expands Wide)
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some violent content and thematic elements.
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Inventor, Biography, Docufiction, 1890s, Professional Rivalry
Directed By: Alfonso Gomez-Rejon
Written By: Michael Mitnick
Starring: Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Shannon, Nicholas Hoult, Tom Holland, Katherine Waterston, Tuppence Middleton
Production Budget: Unknown - Reported at $20 million
Box Office Potential: $15 million
Filed under: Monthly Preview, The Last Full Measure, Gemini Man, Zombieland: Double Tap, The Current War: Director’s Cut, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, The Addams Family, Black and Blue, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Jexi, Countdown, Conrad Vernon, Greg Tiernan