2018 Preview: May
May 1, 2018
April was all about Avengers: Infinity War, which earned about as much during its opening weekend as the next two biggest films, A Quiet Place and Rampage, will earn in total. However, moving Infinity War to April has left a big gap for the first two weeks of May. It isn’t until Deadpool 2 debuts that we have a potential $100 million movie, while the week after Solo: A Star Wars Story closes the month on a strong note. Fortunately, both of those films are expected to earn more than $100 million during their opening weekends alone and combined could earn over $700 million domestically. Last May, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 helped the month get off to a fast start, but it was the only monster hit of the month. Infinity War opening a week early will mean the month will start slower, in terms of new releases, but Infinity War’s record-breaking debut should help 2018 come out ahead in the end.
Normally, the first weekend of May is one of the biggest weekends of the year. For example, this weekend last year, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 opened with $146.51 million. This is more than all films opening this week will earn in total. There are three films opening semi-wide this week, only one of which, Overboard is expected to do anything at the box office. Tully is only opening in 1,200 theaters, but it has enough star power on both sides of the camera that it should open in the top five. On the other hand, Bad Samaritan is expected to miss the Mendoza line. That said, Avengers: Infinity War is practically guaranteed $100 million over the weekend, so the year-over-year comparison won’t be an embarrassment. I don’t think it will be enough to give 2018 the win in the year-over-year comparison, on the other hand.
Robert Sheehan plays Sean, a valet who uses his job to rob houses. His latest victim is played by Cale; however, while robbing Cale’s house, he comes across a woman in a cage. He calls the cops, but Cale covers it up before the cops get there. Worse still, Cale knows who called the cops and decides to get revenge. This film is being released by Electric Entertainment; it’s not their first theatrical release, but this will be their widest release. The buzz is so quiet that I don’t think it will avoid the Mendoza Line ($2,000/theater), not unless the reviews are shockingly good.
The original Overboard is a movie that couldn’t be made today. It’s Taming of the Shrew, which is an incredibly misogynistic play, but with an added amnesia element, so that the women can’t even give consent to being tamed. Just typing that sentence made me wince. Remaking the movie, but with a gender-bent plot doesn’t really fix these problems. If the screenwriters were able to walk the tightrope of making Eugenio Derbez worthy of punishing, but not make him look too much like a victim, maybe it will earn good reviews. I’m not optimistic.
Charlize Theron plays Marlo, a mother of three whose brother gets her a nanny, the titular Tully to help around the house. At first Marlo is uncomfortable with this situation, but she quickly comes around. This is the smallest release of the week, at least in terms of opening theater count. It is only scheduled to play in 1,200 theaters. That said, its early reviews are fantastic, so if it can do well enough opening weekend to stick around, its word-of-mouth will be a major asset. If it opens poorly, it will disappear by the end of the month.
The second weekend of May is usually the weakest in terms of new releases. However, because Avengers: Infinity War moved up a week, this week is actually better than week one. Life of the Party should be a solid midlevel hit, while Breaking In has a shot at being a surprise hit. This weekend last year, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 led the way with $65.26 million, while the best new film was Snatched, which managed $19.54 million. 2018 could match that, if Avengers: Infinity War has better than average legs. It should at least be close.
Gabrielle Union stars as a single mother who is the victim of a home invasion. She then has to rescue her children from the robbers. This is not one of the biggest releases of the month, but we’ve seen box office success for other films aimed at African-Americans recently, so this could be part of that trend. I remain cautiously optimistic.
This is the third film directed by Ben Falcone and co-written by him and Melissa McCarthy. The first two earned terrible reviews, but both were solid midlevel hits at the box office. I suspect this film will do the same.
May finally feels like summer with the release of Deadpool 2. The first film was a surprise hit breaking several February records and this one is expected to open even faster. On the other hand, neither Book Club or Show Dogs is expected to make much at the box office. This weekend last year, Alien: Covenant was the biggest hit, but it only managed $36.16 million. If Deadpool 2 doesn’t make that opening night, then something has gone horribly wrong. In fact, Avengers: Infinity War might earn more than that during its fourth weekend of release.
A group of older women have a book club and when they read “Fifty Shades of Grey”, they realize they lost the spark in their lives and want it back. It’s a movie aimed at older women that seems custom made for Mother’s Day. ... Unfortunately, it is opening the weekend after Mother’s Day. I don’t see this one making a lot at the box office. It might not share any significant target audience with Deadpool 2, but the competition is still too great.
The first Deadpool broke records for a February release earning more during its opening weekend than some thought it would earn in total. A sequel was inevitable. Most analysts think it will open faster, but not have as long legs. There are some who think it will top $150 million during its opening weekend, which is not out of the question, but it is a little too optimistic for my taste. I do think it will top $300 million at the box office, but it likely won’t match the original or be the biggest hit of the month.
From the director of Beverly Hills Chihuahua. Well, at least they got someone experienced with this genre. This film has practically no buzz and live-action kids movies rarely do well at the box office. On the positive side, it will have no direct competition to deal with. As I’m writing this, there isn’t a single family film in the top ten, so by the time Show Dogs debuts, there will be a lot of pent up demand.
The month ends with Solo: A Star Wars Story, which had a troubled production with the firing of its directors mid-way through production. The most recent trailer was good enough to give its buzz a serious boost and perhaps a heist movie in space will work after all. This weekend last year, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales opened with $62.98 million. Solo has a slim chance of earning that opening night. 2018 should end May on a positive note.
Solo: A Star Wars Story had a troubled production as Phil Lord and Christopher Miller were fired over “creative differences”. Not only was Ron Howard brought in to finish the movie, but they hired an acting coach for Alden Ehrenreich. That said, the most recent trailer was effective and the buzz started to really improve. Had this not happened, the film would have been dogged by questions about its troubled production and that could have killed its box office chances. This will still very likely be the worst performer at the box office for the new Star Wars movies. However, it will likely be the best of the month and still be wildly profitable.
Weekend of May 4th, 2018
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Bad Samaritan
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Official Site: ElectricEntertainment.com/Bad-Samaritan
Distributor: Electric Entertainment
Release Date: May 4th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for violence, language throughout, some drug use and brief nudity.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Kidnap, Burglary
Directed By: Dean Devlin
Written By: Brandon Boyce
Starring: David Tennant, Robert Sheehan
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million to $20 million
Box Office Potential: $7.5 million
Overboard
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Official Site: Overboard.Movie/
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: May 4th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for suggestive material, partial nudity and some language.
Source: Remake
Genre: Romantic Comedy
Keywords:
Remake, Faulty Memory, Romance, Boss From Hell, Cross-Class Romance, Genderbending Casting, Unexpected Families
Directed By: Rob Greenberg
Written By: Bob Fisher, Rob Greenberg, Leslie Dixon, Leslie Dixon
Starring: Eugenio Derbez, Anna Faris
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $15 million to $25 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million
Tully
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Official Site: TullyFilm.com
Distributor: Focus Features
Release Date: May 4th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for language and some sexuality/nudity.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Single Parent, Pregnant Women, Nanny
Directed By: Jason Reitman
Written By: Diablo Cody
Starring: Charlize Theron
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million
Weekend of May 11th, 2018
Breaking In
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Official Site: BreakingInMovie.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: May 11th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for violence, menace, bloody images, sexual references, and brief strong language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Hostage, Home Invasion, Rescue, Single Parent, Adult Child Dealing with the Death of a Parent, Inheritance
Directed By: James McTeigue
Written By: Ryan Engle, Jaime Primak Sullivan
Starring: Gabrielle Union
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million
Life of the Party
Official Site: LifeOfTheParty-Movie.com
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: May 11th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for sexual material, drug content and partying.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
College, Adult Education, Screenplay Written By the Star, Delayed Adulthood, Dysfunctional Family, Relationships Gone Wrong
Directed By: Ben Falcone
Written By: Melissa McCarthy, Ben Falcone
Starring: Melissa McCarthy
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $25 million to $35 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million
Weekend of May 18th, 2018
Book Club
Official Site: https://www.bookclub.movie/
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: May 18th, 2018
MPAA Rating: Not Rated
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Widow/Widower, Death of a Spouse or Fiancée / Fiancé, Relationships Gone Wrong, Romance
Directed By: Bill Holderman
Written By: Erin Simms, Bill Holderman
Starring: Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Candice Bergen, Mary Steenburgen
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $25 million to $35 million
Box Office Potential: $30 million
Deadpool 2
Official Site: FoxMovies.com/Movies/Deadpool-2
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: May 18th, 2018
MPAA Rating: Not Rated
Source: Based on Comic/Graphic Novel
Genre: Action
Keywords:
Marvel Comics, Breaking the Fourth Wall, Time Travel, Rescue, Mercenaries, Mutants
Directed By: David Leitch
Written By: Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick, Rob Liefeld, Fabian Nicieza
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Josh Brolin
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $100 million
Box Office Potential: $325 million
Show Dogs
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Official Site: ShowDogs-Movie.com/
Distributor: Open Road
Release Date: May 18th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for suggestive and rude humor, language and some action.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Talking Animals, Animal Lead, Undercover
Directed By: Raja Gosnell
Written By: Max Botkin, Marc Hyman
Starring: Will Arnett, Chris 'Ludacris' Bridges, Jordin Sparks, Gabriel Iglesias, Stanley Tucci, Alan Cumming
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million
Weekend of May 25th, 2018
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Official Site: StarWars.com/Films/Solo
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: May 25th, 2018
MPAA Rating:
Source: Spin-Off
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
Prequel, Space Opera, Smuggler, Heist
Directed By: Ron Howard
Written By: Lawrence Kasdan, Jon Kasdan
Starring: Alden Ehrenreich, Joonas Suotamo, Donald Glover, Emilia Clarke
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $200 million
Box Office Potential: $350 million
Filed under: Monthly Preview, Overboard, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Deadpool 2, Life of the Party, Show Dogs, Tully, Bad Samaritan, Book Club, Breaking In, Star Wars, Charlize Theron, Stanley Tucci, Will Arnett, Candice Bergen, Chris ‘Ludacris’ Bridges, Josh Brolin, Alan Cumming, Eugenio Derbez, Ben Falcone, Anna Faris, Jane Fonda, Raja Gosnell, Ron Howard, Lawrence Kasdan, Diane Keaton, Phil Lord, Melissa McCarthy, James McTeigue, Christopher Miller, Rhett Reese, Jason Reitman, Ryan Reynolds, Mary Steenburgen, David Tennant, Gabrielle Union, Paul Wernick, Robert Sheehan, Donald Glover, Diablo Cody, Dean Devlin, Leslie Dixon, Bob Fisher, Bill Holderman, Jordin Sparks, Gabriel Iglesias, Erin Simms, Mackenzie Davis, Alden Ehrenreich, David Leitch, Emilia Clarke, Max Botkin, Brandon Boyce, Ryan Engle, Rob Liefeld, Fabian Nicieza, Rob Greenberg, , Marc Hyman, Joonas Suotamo, Jaime Primak Sullivan