Weekend estimates: Space Jam opens with impressive $31.65 million

July 18th, 2021

Families returned to movie theaters in a big way this weekend, and helped propel Space Jam: A New Legacy to a strong $31.65 million opening, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection. With Escape Room: Tournament of Champions also beating our model’s prediction, the newcomers made up for soft results for returning films. More...

Weekend estimates: F9 projected to earn $70 million on opening weekend

June 27th, 2021

F9: The Fast Saga will post an opening weekend right in line with Friday-morning expectations, with Universal projecting, as of Sunday morning, that the action movie will earn $70 million this weekend. That’s easily the biggest weekend of the year so far, beating The Quiet Place: Part II’s $47.5 million over the three-day portion of Memorial Day weekend. All told, we should see a $100-million weekend in movie theaters for the first time since March 6, 2020. More...

Weekend predictions: F9 eyeing a $70-million opening

June 25th, 2021

There’s no question which film will top the box office this weekend. F9: The Fast Saga has long been anticipated as a landmark release as theaters reopen around North America, pandemic restrictions are lifted, and audiences regain their appetite for sitting in an enclosed space with hundreds of strangers. It doesn’t even have much competition—$6 million might be enough for it to win the weekend, and it already earned more than that in previews last night. The real question is how much it will bring in this weekend. Given its pedigree and buzz, the minimal benchmark for success is the $47.6 million earned by A Quiet Place: Part II on its Friday–Sunday opening weekend over the Memorial Day holiday. All the signs are that it will go much higher than that.

Here’s what our model has to say this morning… More...

Weekend estimates: Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard debuts with $11.675 million

June 20th, 2021

The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard will pull off a relatively easy win at the box office this weekend, with Lionsgate projecting it will earn $11.675 million from Friday to Sunday for a five-day opening a shade over $17 million. That’s a decent start for an action comedy, which our model says should be doing about $8 million at the moment, but it’s a shade behind our Friday prediction, which projected $13.6 million based on its solid $3.9 million opening day. All-in-all, that adds up to a glass-half-full/empty weekend at the box office. More...

Weekend predictions: Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard favorite to win weekend

June 18th, 2021

The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard looks like it should win the weekend fairly comfortably based on its opening day figures from Wednesday and the track record of action comedies that opened mid-week. Nothing is assured in the topsy-turvy world of 2021, but it would take a steep dive from the newcomer and an unexpectedly strong hold by A Quiet Place: Part II to see a different outcome.

Here’s what our model has to say this morning… More...

Weekend estimates: A Quiet Place: Part II has the edge in four-way race

June 13th, 2021

We won’t know for sure until final numbers are reported on Monday, but it looks as though A Quiet Place: Part II will move back to the top of the box office chart this weekend, fractionally edging out In the Heights. The difference in their respective Sunday-morning projections is just $245,000 though, with Quiet Place expected to earn $11.65 million and In the Heights $11.405 million, which is within the margin of error (particularly considering box office is harder to predict for the studios at the moment as market conditions are changing so much). In fact, Peter Rabbit 2 (projected to earn $10.4 million) and The Conjuring 3 (projected for $10.02 million) are technically still in the running for the win, although that would be a big surprise given they’re over a million dollars back on today’s tracking.

However things shake out, there’s a good chance we’ll have four films earn over $10 million at the box office this weekend, which would be a new pandemic-era high if the numbers hold. The less good news is that In the Heights didn’t hit, well, the heights that were hoped for going into the weekend. It did come very close to what our model expected though. More...

Weekend estimates: The Conjuring’s $24-million opening may be the best evidence yet that box office is recovering

June 6th, 2021

Going into this weekend, it looked as though The Conjuring would have an uphill battle to top the weekend chart. The last film in the The Conjuring franchise, Annabelle Comes Home, opened with $20.3 million in the halcyon days of June, 2019, and it’s been five years since The Conjuring 2 made $40.4 million on opening weekend. With some theaters still closed in North America and a big chunk of the traditional theater-going audience yet to return, our model predicted it would earn somewhere in the region of $10 million to $15 million this weekend. Even with a steep decline, A Quiet Place: Part II was favored to retain its crown. The studios’ weekend projections, released this morning, tell a different story—one that’s very encouraging for box office watchers. More...

Weekend predictions: A Quiet Place is the favorite to win the weekend

June 4th, 2021

Expect to see a close race at the top of the box office chart this weekend as A Quiet Place: Part II does battle against two newcomers—The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, and Spirit Untamed—and Cruella hopes to make up some ground on the current chart topper after posting solid numbers last weekend. There’s a possibility that four films could top $10 million this weekend, although our model thinks that’s unlikely. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see three films better that number though, which would be another milestone in the recovery of the theatrical market. More...

Weekend estimates: A Quiet Place sets new 2021 benchmark with 3-day $48.38 million

May 30th, 2021

A Quiet Place: Part II is headed for a Memorial Day opening of close to $60 million, according to Paramount’s Sunday morning projections. The horror sequel is expected to pick up $48.38 million over three days, and $58 million over four, making it the biggest hit at the box office since theaters started reopening, handily beating Godzilla vs. Kong, which debuted with $32.2 million back in April. Cruella is well behind it in second place, but will top Tom and Jerry to become the best-performing post-pandemic family movie with a $21.3-million 3-day opening, and projected $26.5 million over four days.

Both films are performing well above our model’s predictions, which is an encouraging sign that audiences are returning to theaters. More...

Weekend predictions: Make-or-break Memorial Day weekend is here

May 28th, 2021

The last fourteen months have turned the movie industry upside down. This weekend might be the one that makes things start to seem a little more normal. Two big releases from major studios arrived in theaters yesterday evening for preview shows, and will be hoping to capitalize on the long weekend to deliver significant results at the box office. We’re already seeing some promising results, with A Quiet Place: Part II earning $4.8 million from previews, and Cruella hitting $1.4 million. Here’s what that suggests for their prospects for the weekend, and how our model sees the weekend shaking out. More...

Weekend estimates: Spiral repeats as market braces for Memorial Day

May 23rd, 2021

With no new films opening in over 1,500 theaters, this weekend was always going to be a modest one at the box office as the industry prepares for a make-or-break Memorial Day session. Spiral will repeat at the top of the chart with a projected $4.55 million, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday-morning projection. Its 48% decline from opening weekend is a bit better than expected, and several other films are also holding on well, which means the weekend as a whole looks more solid than feared. It’s still fair to say that A Quiet Place: Part II and Cruella will face virtually no competition when they open this coming weekend. More...

Weekend predictions: Dream Horse unlikely to trouble the top six

May 21st, 2021

With Memorial Day weekend looming over the market, along with its two big new films, Cruella and A Quiet Place: Part II, this will be a quiet weekend at the box office. In fact, to borrow a well-worn phrase, perhaps too quiet.

Dream Horse is the only new wide release this weekend, and (as we will see in a moment) it isn’t expected to do a huge amount of business. Spiral, last week’s number one, didn’t do spectacular business on opening weekend and should see a sharp decline. With everything else in the top ten either coming off a weak debut or pretty much played out, we could see one of the worst weekends in the past couple of months.

Here’s what the model has to say… More...

2020 Preview: March

March 1st, 2020

The box office had mixed results during February with Birds of Prey missing expectations by a huge margin, but Sonic the Hedgehog did well enough to almost make up the difference. This March, there are three films that will almost certainly reach $100 million domestically: Onward, A Quiet Place: Part II, and Mulan. In fact, all three at least have a slim shot at $200 million domestically. By comparison, last March Captain Marvel was released, which earned more than $400 million, while Us and Dumbo earned close to $300 million combined. I don’t think the top three films this year will match last year’s top three, or even come particularly close, and I fear 2020 will fall behind 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. So much for that lead 2020 built up in January. More...

A Quiet Place II Trailer

January 1st, 2020

Horror thriller starring Emily Blunt and Cillian Murphy opens March 20 ... Full Movie Details. More...