Weekend estimates: Spiral repeats as market braces for Memorial Day
May 23, 2021
With no new films opening in over 1,500 theaters, this weekend was always going to be a modest one at the box office as the industry prepares for a make-or-break Memorial Day session. Spiral will repeat at the top of the chart with a projected $4.55 million, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday-morning projection. Its 48% decline from opening weekend is a bit better than expected, and several other films are also holding on well, which means the weekend as a whole looks more solid than feared. It’s still fair to say that A Quiet Place: Part II and Cruella will face virtually no competition when they open this coming weekend.
This weekend will see only a minor shuffle of the top six films. Raya and the Last Dragon will move up a place to 4th, based on the figures we’ve received so far (as of this writing, we don’t have an official estimate for Demon Slayer, and the number above is our projection). The standout performer is arguably Those Who Wish Me Dead, which will be down 35% on its second weekend and gains 191 theaters from its opening location count. Godzilla vs. Kong is also performing well, and will be down just 6% from last weekend—partly thanks to adding some newly-reopened theaters to its roster.
Dream Horse looks to be headed for 8th place on the chart with a projected opening of $844,279 compared to our model’s predicted $536,000. That’s an encouraging sign for the return of what I’ve been calling “date night” movies, which consists of our romantic comedy and comedy drama categories. Two weeks ago the model estimated that only 15% of regular date-night moviegoers were showing up in theaters. Last week that estimate went up to 17%, and the modestly successful opening for Dream Horse will bump the figure a tad higher, to 18%. Dream Horse itself reached 27% of its expected “regular” audience.
When looking at the market as a whole this weekend, things don’t look as bad as they might have. That’s partly because more theaters have opened in anticipation of the Summer season, and that rising tide has lifted almost all boats a little. In general, it’s hard to draw any conclusions about what to expect next weekend though. Memorial Day weekend used to be capable of delivering $100-million openings. Based on the current state of the market, something around $40 million for either of next weekend’s openers looks possible, but I’ll have much more to say on that as the week progresses.
Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Cruella, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Quiet Place: Part II, Those Who Wish Me Dead, Raya and the Last Dragon, Spiral, Dream Horse, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba—The Movie: Mugen Train (劇場版「鬼滅の刃」 無限列車編)