2020 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Feature-Length Animated Film

February 3rd, 2020

Our annual Oscar Prediction contest is underway so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Due to a compressed Oscar schedule, and the monthly preview, I have to get all ten Oscar highlight stories done this week, continuing with best Feature-Length Animated Film. We do have a favorite in this category; spoiler warning, it’s the Pixar film. However, we could also have an upset and it wouldn’t be the most shocking twist of Oscar night. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Nominations

January 13th, 2020

The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year. More...

2020 Awards Season: Golden Globes Nominations

December 11th, 2019

The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods. More...

2019 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I - First-Run Releases and Franchise Box Sets

November 27th, 2019

It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This year, Thanksgiving is as late as it could have been, which means there’s no way to squeeze in four weeks of regular installments of the gift guide, as well as the December monthly preview, etc. So we are going to have a condensed list this year. That said, there weren’t a ton of first-run releases that would have made this list regardless. More...

Home Market Releases for May 28th, 2019

May 28th, 2019

We are back to normal on the home market for a summer week. That is to say, there’s almost nothing to talk about. The biggest physical release of the week is Outlander: Season Four. The show’s reviews have slipped a little, but they are still earning amazing reviews. However, it airs on Starz, so most people have never seen it and I don’t think it is a good idea to jump into the show in season four. Greta is the next biggest physical release, but it is not Pick of the Week material. That leaves How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, which came out last week, but the screener arrived late. And of course Captain Marvel, which is coming out on VOD this week. So the choice for Pick of the Week is down to a movie I already awarded the title to and a movie that isn’t out on DVD / Blu-ray this week. It’s a tough call, but in the end, I went with How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World. Captain Marvel will have another chance when it comes out on Blu-ray. More...

Home Market Releases for May 21st, 2019

May 21st, 2019

It is a very strange week on the home market. There are two $100 million hits, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World and The Upside, a midlevel hit, Isn’t it Romantic, and then practically nothing. The week’s releases are more top-heavy than any other week I can remember. Fortunately, the biggest release of the week, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, is also one of the best wide releases of the year so far and it is easily the Pick of the Week. In fact, it would likely have won that title even if it was a busier than average week. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Pikachu Has a Super Start

May 10th, 2019

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu pulled in $5.7 million during its previews on Thursday. This is a strong start, but how strong depends on if the film is pulling in more families than Fanboys. If it is weighted heavily to the Fanboys, then it will have legs similar to Shazam!, for example, which would still be enough to match the tracking at just over $50 million for the weekend. If it is more heavily weighted to families, then it has a real shot at topping our $65 million prediction. If it has similar legs to How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, then it will beat that figure by a substantial margin. Legs will also depend on the film’s word-of-mouth and whether or not moviegoers liked the movie more than critics did. As always, we will know more this time tomorrow when Friday’s estimates come out. More...

Home Market Releases for April 30, 2019

April 30th, 2019

The spring doldrums continue with very few major releases and almost no big hits arriving on the home market this week. There are a couple of titles competing for Pick of the Week: Police Story Double-Shot and Arctic. Both are worth owning, but I went with Police Story as the Pick of the Week. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Us vs. Them Wasn’t Even Close

March 26th, 2019

Us topped the weekend chart and expectations with $71.12 million during its debut. This was more than double what Captain Marvel earned during this weekend and it helped the overall box office grow 6.8% from last weekend to $148 million. More importantly, this is 14% higher than the same weekend last year. Granted, 2019 is still way behind 2018, but it is chipping away at the deficit and is now behind by 17% or $450 million at $2.15 billion to $2.60 billion. Furthermore, 2019 is no longer an historically bad year at the box office. It used to be the worst year at box office in terms of dollars in over a decade. Now it’s the worst year since 2013 and if April is as good as March was, it could be in the top five best years in box office dollars by the beginning of May. More...

Weekend Estimates: Us Appeals to a lot of us with $70 Million Opening

March 24th, 2019

Us made the most of its opening weekend with an estimated debut of $70.25 million, which is much higher than even the high end of expectations. If this opening holds, it would be the tenth-biggest March opening, but that’s a big if. It’s just behind 300 and just ahead of The Lorax, so I expect it to change a spot when Monday’s final numbers are released. The film should have reasonable legs going forward, as its reviews are a major asset, while it earned a B from CinemaScore, which is a good result for a horror film. Internationally, the film is opening ahead of Get Out, but far behind its domestic debut with an estimated $16.7 million in 47 markets. This includes the U.K., where it earned $3.7 million during its opening weekend. However, it only cracked $1 million in three other markets: France ($2 million); Germany ($1.4 million); and Spain ($1.2 million). More...

Friday Estimates: Us Ends Captain Marvel’s Run on Top with $29 million

March 23rd, 2019

Us topped expectations, and even beat Friday’s revisions, with an opening day of $29.06 million on Friday. Universal is projecting an opening weekend of $67 million after this result; however, studios tend to lowball these projections, so there’s a good chance it’ll do even better. That said, it would be wise to treat the movie like a horror sequel when it comes to predicting its legs. Granted, its reviews are more than 90% positive, and it earned a B from CinemaScore. That might seem low, but it is actually quite strong for a horror film. More...

Weekend Predictions: Us will be Lonely at the Top

March 21st, 2019

Us is the only wide release of the week and it should easily earn top spot on the box office chart. It won’t dominate the box office chart, as Captain Marvel should still be a powerful draw this weekend. Unfortunately, there will be a huge gap between those two films and the rest of the box office, as no other movie is expected to crack $10 million at the box office. Fortunately, this weekend last year wasn’t particularly strong. Granted, there were five films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend, but the best, Pacific Rim: Uprising, only managed $28.12 million. There’s a chance the top two films this year will earn more than the top five did last year, giving 2019 only its third win of the year so far. It would also be its third win in a row. More...

International Box Office: Captain Marvel Hits $750 million Worldwide in Two Weeks

March 20th, 2019

Captain Marvel continued to dominated the competition earning first place on the international chart with $119.7 million in 54 markets for totals of $494.0 million internationally and $758.9 million worldwide. This is already ahead of 10 previous installments in the MCU. The film opened in its last market, Japan, earning first place with $5.6 million. It also earned $23.83 million in China for a two-week total of $131.84 million. This is down by 72% from its opening weekend, which is a sharp decline, even for China, but not a disaster. The film held on better in the rest of the international markets; in fact, on average, it held on better than it did here. This puts $1 billion worldwide within reach, likely by next week, and it might even reach the top five for the MCU. More...

Weekend Estimates: Captain Marvel Continues to Fly High, Most New Releases Open Strong

March 17th, 2019

Captain Marvel will remain in top spot on the weekend chart with an estimated $69.32 million, giving it a two-week total of $266.21 million. This is higher than predicted and a 55% decline bodes well for its future. It is already ahead of the lifetime domestic totals of eight previous installments in the MCU and it will quickly rise into the top ten. Internationally, the film added $119.7 million to its running tally, which now sits at $494.0 million, while its worldwide total rose to $760.2 million. Yesterday, I said the film could be in the top ten for the MCU. If these estimates hold, it will miss that mark by about $10 million. In fact, given its holds this weekend, it has a pathway to enter the top five. The film’s only, and last, new international opening was Japan. There the film’s estimated weekend opening was $5.6 million, which was the highest opening for a standalone film in the MCU. Meanwhile, outside of China, the film held on even better than it did domestically. China tends to be a very front-loaded market, but the film held on well enough there to get to $132.0 million after just two weeks, making it the fourth highest grossing film in the MCU already. It is even better in Indonesia where its two week total of $16.1 million is the fourth highest total of all-time. We will have more details on the international numbers later in the week. More...

Friday Estimates: Captain Marvel Hits $200 million Domestically and $600 million Worldwide

March 16th, 2019

Captain Marvel held on a little better than expected to earn $19.05 million on Friday, which pushes it past the $200 million mark in just 8 days. This is 69% lower than its opening Friday, but is still a fantastic start to its sophomore weekend. In fact, it should top our prediction with $68 million over the full weekend for a two week total of nearly $265 million. Disney hasn’t released Friday’s international numbers, but it is widely expected to top $400 million internationally and $600 million worldwide. The film has already surpassed five previous installments in the MCU on the worldwide chart and did so in just eight days. By the end of the weekend, it could be in the top ten for the franchise. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Captain Marvel Give the New Releases Room to Breathe?

March 15th, 2019

Captain Marvel will undoubetedly dominate the box office again this weekend with some thinking it will avoid a 50% drop-off. I think that is overly optimistic, but there are some good signs. This includes a lack of top-notch new releases. Wonder Park is the biggest new release, at least in terms of theater count, but it also has the worst reviews of the three wide releases. Five Feet Apart has better reviews, but they can best be described as mixed. Meanwhile, Captive State still has barely any reviews and its buzz is so quiet that it might not top the Mendoza Line. Finally, some sources have Nancy Drew and the Hidden Staircase opening wide, but that isn’t happening. That’s too bad, because if it were opening wide, it would have the best reviews of the weekend. This weekend last year, Black Panther completed its month at the top of the chart, while Tomb Raider was the best new releases. Those two films earned almost exactly $50 million combined, which Captain Marvel will top by itself, leading 2019 to the victory in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Captain Marvel Takes Command of the Box Office

March 14th, 2019

Captain Marvel dominated the international chart even more than it dominated the domestic chart earning $302.0 million in 53 markets during its opening weekend for a worldwide debut of $455.3 million. Unsurprisingly, the film’s biggest market was China, where it earned $86.57 million over the weekend for a total opening of $88.86 million in the market. The film’s second best market was South Korea, where it earned $18.11 million in 2,098 screens for a total opening of $23.98 million. The film managed $16.59 million on 655 theaters in the U.K. and $13.3 million in Brazil. The film also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($12.71 million); Indonesia ($10.8 million); and Russia ($10.71 million). The only market the film didn’t open in is Japan, but it opens there this weekend. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Captain Marvel Cracks $150 million During Debut

March 12th, 2019

That burst of hot air you feel is box office analysts and movie executives breathing a sigh of relief as 2019 finally has its first win in the year-over-year comparison. Captain Marvel beat expectations earning $153.43 million over the weekend. This is more than the entire box office earned last weekend, helping the box office grow 85% week-over-week to $209 million. The year-over-year growth wasn’t as explosive, but this was still 51% more than the same weekend last year. 2019 is still way behind 2018, $480 million or 22% to be more precise at $1.75 billion to $2.23 billion. However, this gap is about 10% smaller than it was this time last week, so while 2019 has a long, long way to go to catch up to 2018, it at least looks like it is possible instead of just wishful thinking. More...

Weekend Estimates: Captain Marvel Starts Higher. Further. Faster.

March 10th, 2019

Captain Marvel is opening with $153.0 million over the weekend, according to Disney’s estimate. This is on the high end of the studio’s projections based on Friday’s estimates. Additionally, it is more than the entire box office pulled in this weekend last year, as well as the third biggest March opening and the seventh biggest opening in the MCU. The film is already the biggest domestic hit of 2019 and the fifth-biggest hit worldwide. Its legs should be relatively long for a blockbuster, as it earned certified fresh reviews and a solid A from CinemaScore. More...

Friday Estimates: Captain Marvel Sets 2019 Weekend Record in One Day

March 9th, 2019

It took just one day for Captain Marvel to set the record for biggest 2019 weekend, as it dominated the chart with $61.38 million. In fact, it is already in sixth place on the 2019 domestic chart, just behind Alita: Battle Angel. The reviews are on the lower end of the MCU average, but that says more about the high quality of the MCU than the low quality of the film, as its Tomatometer Score is 79% positive. The audience reactions are even more positive; Disney released its CinemaScore and it is a solid A. The film should have no trouble topping our prediction with Disney projecting a $145 million to $155 million weekend. I think they are being a little conservative here, but we will see tomorrow when the weekend estimates show up. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Captain Marvel have a Marvelous Start?

March 7th, 2019

This should easily be the best weekend of 2019 as Captain Marvel is widely expected to become the biggest domestic hit of 2019 and it should take just three days to get there. It could take just two days to get there. This film has no competition, at least when it comes to this year. However, the main competition is Black Panther, A Wrinkle in Time, and the rest of the box office from this weekend last year. Those films pulled in $139 million and hopefully Captain Marvel will top that by itself. More...

International Box Office: Dragons Regain Top Spot

March 7th, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World returned to first place on the international chart in almost exactly a month. It earned $54.9 million in 60 markets for totals of $280.9 million internationally and $378.6 million worldwide. The film debuted in first place in China with $33.38 million in approximately 10,000 theaters. It has yet to open in Japan and could break even before it gets there. It depends on how long its legs are and how much its advertising budget was. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dragons Don’t Dominate, as Madea Makes the Most of its Final Debut

March 4th, 2019

2019 has hit its low point, I hope. While Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral opened faster than anticipated, Greta couldn’t pull its weight and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World slipped faster than expected. The overall box office fell 9.4% from last weekend to $113 million. Worse still, this is 23% lower than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, this is actually better than average for the year so far, as 2019 is now 26% or $540 million behind 2018’s pace at $1.51 billion to $2.04 billion. Fortunately, Captain Marvel should help things turn around when the film debuts in a few days. More...

Weekend Estimates: Dragons Stay Afloat, Medea Ends on a High Note

March 3rd, 2019

According to estimates, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World really bounced back on Saturday and its Sunday number will help it earn first place over the weekend with $30.05 million. This is lower than predictions and a sophomore decline of 48% is a little steep for a family film. That said, the film is nearly at $100 million domestically after just 10 days and its worldwide total is at $375 million, again according to estimates. The film opened in first place in China with $33.38 million in approximately 10,000 locations. The film’s only remaining major market is Japan, but it doesn’t open there until August. In the meantime, the film should have little trouble getting to $500 million worldwide before then. More...

Friday Estimates: Medea Takes on Dragons and Wins

March 2nd, 2019

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral got off to a faster than expected start on Friday earning $9.2 million. This might be enough to keep it in first place over the full weekend. It depends on its legs. Its reviews are only 29% positive, which normally would be a disaster, but the Madea franchise has been critic-proof for its entire history, so this really shouldn’t have an effect and opening with $26 million or more is likely. More...

Weekend Predictions: New Month, New Beginning?

February 28th, 2019

2019 has been a terrible year and we really need things to turn around soon or there will be no chance for things to turn around by the end. Fortunately, things should turn around in March. Unfortunately, it won’t be this week. The two wide releases this week are Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral and Greta. The former is expected to become a midlevel hit. The latter might not top the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Black Panther continued to dominate the box office with $66.31 million. This is likely more than the combined final domestic box office numbers of the two wide releases. 2019 will lose the year-over-year comparison, again, but hopefully for the last time in several weeks. More...

Theater Averages: Dragons Look Down on the Other New Releases

February 27th, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World was the only film in the $10,000 Club earning an average of $13,506. The best limited release was Wrestle, which earned $6,027 in its lone theater. More...

International Box Office: China Propels Alita to the Top

February 27th, 2019

Alita: Battle Angel rose to first place with $92.42 in 82 markets for totals of $202.68 million internationally and $263.70 million worldwide. The film debuted in China with $63.26 million over the weekend for a total opening of $64.31 million. This is a great start in that market and better than the film’s predicted $50 million opening and even better than its early $60 million projection. It won’t be enough to save the film’s financial future, but it will be enough to save face. The film only made $3.2 million during its opening in Japan, which is disappointing, as the movie was based on a Manga / Anime from Japan and many assumed it would perform better there. The film has no more openings but should top $400 million internationally with relative ease and with a bit of luck, could get to $450 million. We will know more next week, once we see how long its legs will be in China. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dragons Breath Fire and Life into the Box Office

February 26th, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World not only led the way over the weekend, it had the fastest start of the year so far. This helped the overall box office grow to $127 million. This is 4.3% higher than last weekend, which might not seem impressive, but this is a post-holiday weekend and we usually see a substantial drop-off. On the other hand, this is still 34% lower than this weekend last year, as Black Panther’s sophomore stint was almost exactly double The Hidden World’s debut. This left 2019 even further behind 2018 and the gap is now 25% or $460 million at $1.36 billion to $1.82 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Dragons Roar, Holdovers Can’t Soar

February 24th, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World isn’t quite matching Friday’s projections, but it is still dominating the weekend box office with an estimated $55.53 million Friday through Sunday, and $58.03 million in total if you include the paid previews. This is by far the biggest opening of the year, topping Glass by $15 million and the film is already in the top five for 2019. Internationally, it debuted in first place in Russia with $11.2 million, pushing its weekend haul to $34.7 million, while its international running tally rose to $216.9 million. It is already the biggest worldwide hit of the year, at least it is the biggest Hollywood hit at the global box office. So far that chart is dominated by Chinese films, but that’s common, as Chinese New Year usually results in a few films earning over $100 million at the box office during that week alone. More...

Friday Estimates: Dragons Take Flight One Last Time

February 23rd, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World is beating expectations with $17.49 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $60 million over the full weekend, including its $2.5 million from paid previews. This is more than enough to be the fastest opening in the franchise and it is easily the best opening of the year so far. It’s nice for a potential major hit to actually top expectations and this is the first time that’s happened all year. Hopefully the film’s reviews and word-of-mouth can continue to lift its box office chances over the full weekend and indeed over the next few weeks. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Dragons Doubles Lego with $3 million

February 22nd, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World got off to a fast start with $3 million in previews on Thursday. This is twice as much as The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part earned during its previews and it doesn’t include the $2.5 million in paid previews The Hidden World earned on February 2nd. Additionally, its reviews are fantastic and its word-of-mouth should help carry the film over the weekend. I want to be cautious, because 2019 has been a bad year at the box office so far, but I can see us having to adjust our prediction tomorrow, once Friday’s numbers show up. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Dragons make the Box Office Soar Again?

February 21st, 2019

There’s only one true wide release this weekend, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, but it should become the fastest opening film of the year so far. Additionally, Fighting With My Family is expanding wide and after its stellar start last weekend, it should easily earn a spot in the top five. It likely won’t be able to top Alita: Battle Angel or The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, but it should be in a battle for fourth place with Isn’t It Romantic. On the positive side, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World should earn more than the three new wide releases from this weekend last year. On the negative side, Black Panther remained in top spot with closer to $120 million. 2019 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison, again, but at least it won’t be as bad as last week was. More...

International Box Office: Alita Playing Across the Earth, but Wandering Wins

February 20th, 2019

The Wandering Earth remained in first place on the international chart with $96.94 million over the weekend for a running tally of $606.87 million after fourteen days of release. More...

International Box Office: The Wandering Earth goes Global

February 13th, 2019

The international box office lived up to its name with the top three films all being international films. The Wandering Earth dominated the box office with $179.80 million over the weekend of a total seven-day opening of $298.27 million. This is an outstanding debut, even when you consider the benefits of Chinese New Year at the box office. More...

International Box Office: Dragon is No Longer Hidden

February 5th, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World roared into first place on the international chart with $40.8 million in 40 markets for a still early international total of $85.5 million. It was buoyed by a quartet of major market openings, led by Mexico, where it earned first place with $7.56 million in 891 theaters. This is 20% more than the previous film in the franchise opened with in that market. It also opened in first place in the U.K. ($6.95 million in 556 theaters) and in Italy ($3.67 million in 467). On the other hand, it had to settle for third place in South Korea with $3.30 million on 971 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.61 million. The film opens in France and Germany this weekend, but doesn’t finish its box office run until August, when it finally opens in Japan. More...

Preview: February

February 1st, 2019

2019 got off to a slow start as the biggest release of January, Glass, missed expectations and as a result, 2019 lost every weekend in the year-over-year comparison. Unfortunately, 2019 isn’t going to turn things around this month, as last February, Black Panther broke all of the records. That doesn’t mean there are no bright spots this month. Both The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World are virtually guaranteed to reach $100 million domestically, while I wouldn’t be too surprised if one or both hit $200 million. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits, one of which could turn into a surprise $100 million hit. That said, there’s a chance all nine movies opening this month combined will earn less than Black Panther did last year. More...

International Box Office: Glass Sparkles on Top

January 24th, 2019

Glass opened in first place on the international chart with $48.5 million in 55 markets. Its biggest market was Russia, where it opened with $5.19 million on 1,381 screens. On the other hand, arguably its best market was Mexico, where it earned $4.15 million over the weekend for a total opening of $4.39 million. This is more than double the $2.02 million Split opened with and the record for M. Night Shyamalan in that market. On the down side, the film has practically done its international run and only has China ahead. More...

International Box Office: Bumblebee Stings the Competition

January 16th, 2019

Bumblebee remained in first place with $35.6 million in 64 markets for totals of $256.3 million internationally and $365.2 million worldwide. It was able to remain in first place in China with $26.36 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $108.91 million. It fell 55%, which is actually quite good for a film in China. Bumblebee needs about $250 million worldwide, without China, in order to break even during its initial push into the home market. It got there this weekend and it still hasn’t opened in Japan. I think Paramount will be happy with this result and there will be another installment in the Transformers franchise. More...

International Box Office: Bumblebee Bounces to the Top

January 9th, 2019

Bumblebee rose to first place with $82.7 million in 62 markets for totals of $192.0 million internationally and $289.6 million worldwide. It was able to earn first place thank in part due to its first place debut in China, where it earned $58.06 million over the weekend for a total opening of $59.26 million. The film needs to make more than $150 million in China to have a secure future there. Granted, films in China tend to have short legs, but Transformers has usually been the exception, so I’m cautiously optimistic for its chances. More...

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Trailer

October 30th, 2018

Animated adventure opens February 22 ... Full Movie Details.

As Hiccup fulfills his dream of creating a peaceful dragon utopia, Toothless’ discovery of an untamed, elusive mate draws the Night Fury away. When danger mounts at home and Hiccup’s reign as village chief is tested, both dragon and rider must make impossible decisions to save their kind. More...