July 29th, 2013
There were a lot of new releases on the Blu-ray sales chart this week. This includes Oz the Great and Powerful, which led the way with 472,000 units / $13.21 million during its first week of release. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 46%, which is a good start for a visually impressive adventure film.
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June 22nd, 2013
There were a quartet of new releases this week, but it was a matter of quantity over quality and Django Unchained remained on top of the DVD and Blu-ray carts. The Gangster Squad settled for second place with 314,000 units / $5.04 million on DVD and 149,000 units / $3.52 million It's opening week Blu-ray share was 32%, which is solid for a drama, but nothing too impressive. Its running totals are 532,000 units / $8.31 million on DVD and 236,000 units / $5.69 million on Blu-ray.
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June 22nd, 2013
New releases were led by Django Unchained on both DVD and Blu-ray. It sold 590,000 units and generated $10.19 million on DVD and 667,000 units / $15.47 million on Blu-ray. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 53%, which is very strong. Since then, the film has sold a total of 1.27 million units and $23.42 million on DVD and 1.08 million units / $25.23 million on Blu-ray. On the other hand, it was the only new release in the top five, or even the top ten.
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May 31st, 2013
The overall home market again sank for the week of April 14th, 2013 falling to what was arguably the lowest level for the year. Since there was only one new release to reach the top ten, it should come as no surprise that the total sales fell from last week, but it is still troubling. In total, there were 688,000 units sold and $17.95 million in revenue generated. This was 24% fewer units and 37% less revenue when compared to last week. Even more troubling, this was the lowest units sold all year and second lowest by revenue. Fortunately, and more importantly, it was better than the same weekend last year by 26% in terms of units and 34% in terms of revenue. The overall Blu-ray share was mostly flat at 31% in terms of units and 38% in terms of revenue. It will be this way for most of the summer, until the flood of TV on DVD releases start coming out, at which time the Blu-ray share will drop.
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April 23rd, 2013
This time of year tends to be really bad on the home market. By this late in spring, there are only a few late winter releases still finding their way on the home market. Last weekend it was Django Unchained and next weekend it will be Silver Linings Playbook. This week, there are no such releases. The best selling release according to Amazon.com is Jurassic Park, which makes its home market 3D debut. (It is still in the top ten at the box office, so that might be helping the sales.) I hope to get a screener to review but so far it is late, so I'm not sure if the 3D upgrade is worth the triple-dip. As far as Pick of the Week Contenders, there are not many. The Impossible is probably the best bet, but I'm still waiting for the screener. The week is so bad, that I took the time to review Star Trek: The Next Generation: Season Three on Blu-ray a week in advance, just so I would have something to choose as Pick of the Week this week. It is expensive, but there are several classic episodes that aired this season and there is a ton of new extras on the six-disc set.
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April 16th, 2013
It is both a great week and a terrible week on the home market. On the high end, Django Unchained is coming out. It is one of the biggest hits of the fall and one of the best reviewed films of the year. It would be a contender for Pick of the Week regardless how busy the week was. On the other hand, there are releases in the Amazon.com's top ten new releases for the week that would be filler on even an average week. After Django Unchained, there's no real depth this week. The Blu-ray Combo Pack doesn't have a lot of extras, but it is still worthy of Pick of the Week honors.
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March 6th, 2013
Journey To The West: Conquering The Demons earned first place for the third weekend in a row earning $23.37 million in 8 markets for a running tally of $193.09 million. A few years ago, a Chinese film earning nearly $200 million would have been the biggest news of the year, but this is becoming almost common.
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March 3rd, 2013
The year's first big-budget special effects extravaganza is headed for a decidedly weak opening weekend. Jack the Giant Slayer will earn about $28 million, according to Warner Bros., which is only a fraction of its reported $195 million production budget. Even with international numbers expected to be better, the film will struggle financially. The weekend's other openers are posting even more modest numbers, but benefit from having much, much lower budgets. 21 and Over is set for $9 million for Relativity and The Last Exorcism Part II will post about $8 million for CBS Films. Phantom, from new distributor RCR Media Group, will pick up a very weak $460,000 or so (they have not shared an official number with us) from 1,118 theaters, highlighting once more the challenge for new distributors in establishing a place in the market.
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February 28th, 2013
A Journey To The West: Conquering The Demons remained in first place with $54.93 million in 6 markets for a total of $168.02 million after three weeks of release. It is the biggest Chinese film released this year, but it won't be the last to get to the century mark.
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February 25th, 2013
Argo was the big winner at the Oscars last night, although arguably, there were no big winners, but a lot of films that shared in the glory. There were also some pretty interesting twists and a few events that stand out. Due to ongoing computer difficulties, I was unable to live-blog the Oscars this year. I will still be giving my reactions on a category by category basis, but not in the order they were handed out.
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February 24th, 2013
Voting is closed in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest, and Argo is the clear favorite to pick up the Best Picture award, based on the opinion of nearly 500 entrants. Ben Affleck's thriller took an impressive 80% of the vote, more than six times the score of Lincoln, which took second place in the poll. Coincidentally, the contest has predicted the winner of the Best Picture Oscar 80% of the time in the 15 years we've been running it. Quite a few other categories have strong favorites, but there are also some really close calls, and it looks as though the awards will be shared by several films tonight.
- Votes in Each Category
- Predicted Winners in Each Category
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February 24th, 2013
The box office crown for Oscar weekend will be claimed by Identity Thief, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning, even though the comedy will fall by a relatively large 41% from last weekend. So its win is in large part due to the low-key new releases: Snitch will be second with $13 million in a modest 2,511 theaters and Dark Skies is headed for 6th place with $8.85 million from 2,313 theaters. Neither new film has particularly low per theater averages ($5,177 and $3,826 respectively), so their so-so debuts are as much a factor of their smallish opening theater counts as lack of demand.
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February 22nd, 2013
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We wrap up our look at the prestigious categories with the most prestigious of them all: Best Picture. Like last year, there are nine nominees. Unlike last year, none of them were completely out of left field. That's not to say they all have a legitimate shot at winning; there's definitely a favorite. However, politics could become an issue. I don't mean politics as in Democrat vs. Republican. I mean behind-the-scenes issues might play a bigger role than what is on the screen. Let's take a look at the nominees, and their chances to claiming the crown on Sunday.
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February 21st, 2013
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, finishing with Best Original Screenplay. There are actually three films that could win that and it wouldn't be a total shock if they did. That said, there is still a favorite to contend with.
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February 21st, 2013
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, starting with Best Adapted Screenplay. This is a race that is not as close as many thought it would be, and it is not the two early front-runners running away with the Oscar.
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February 21st, 2013
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Supporting Actor. This category is more competitive than Best Supporting Actress, but even so, it is mostly a two horse race.
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February 21st, 2013
Thanks to the Chinese New Year, Journey To The West: Conquering The Demons rocketed into first place with $94.26 million in 5 markets over the weekend for a total run of $113.09 million. The film broke a number of records in its native China, including biggest opening day for a Chinese film ($12.3 million) and biggest single day of all time ($19.6 million) and fastest to $100 million in China (8 days). At this point, someone in North America should be interested in grabbing the film for a domestic release.
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February 14th, 2013
For the third weekend in a row, Django Unchained earned first place on the international chart. This weekend it earned $19.55 million on 5,090 screens in 65 markets for totals of $187.71 million internationally and $342.23 million worldwide. It has now made more than Inglourious Basterds made worldwide, and it is a week away from becoming Quentin Tarantino's undisputed biggest hit of his career. Plus, it has yet to open in Japan and a few other markets, so it might have more milestones ahead.
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February 6th, 2013
Django Unchained won the international race with $30.28 million on 5,990 screens in 65 markets for a running total of $158.36 million. Worldwide, its total has reached $309.31 million. It is just a week away from overtaking Inglourious Basterds as Quentin Tarantino's biggest hit of his career. The film had no major market openings, which makes its hold more impressive. Its best market was Germany, where it made $6.61 million on 708 screens over the weekend for a total of $30.78 million after three.
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January 30th, 2013
There was a relatively close race on top of the international chart, but Django Unchained came out on top for the second week in a row. This time it earned $43.10 million on 6,421 screens in 64 markets for a total of $111.61 million after just two weeks of release. It is rapidly closing in on Inglourious Basterds as Quentin Tarantino's biggest hit of his career. It is also the most expensive film in his career. The film opened in first place in Australia with $3.95 million on 330 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.61 million. It also remained in top spot in Germany with an incredible $8.08 million on 650 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $21.32 million.
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January 28th, 2013
January ended, and we should all be glad it did. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters did beat modest expectations, but most of the rest failed that test with Movie 43 crashing worse than even my low expectations. The overall box office fell 20% from last weekend to $112 million. This was 11% less than the same weekend last year; fortunately, this was the first miss of 2013 and the year still has a lead of 10% over 2012 at $797 million to $721 million.
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January 23rd, 2013
Django Unchained began its international run in first place with $49.70 million on 5,863 screens in 54 markets. It opened in first place in a number of major markets, led by Germany, where it made $9.84 million on 482 screens, while it was nearly as potent in France with $7.54 million on 610 screens. It also earned first place in Italy with $4.60 million on 541 screens and in Spain with $3.40 million on 541. It had to settle for second place in the U.K. ($4.45 million on 445 screens); in Russia ($5.52 million on 736); and in Mexico ($999,000 on 451). It only managed third place in Brazil with $1.27 million, but it was only playing on 187 screens. Overall, this debut was 30% better than Inglourious Basterds' debut in the same markets.
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January 14th, 2013
Oscar nominations didn't produce a big box office bounce over the weekend, but Zero Dark Thirty still managed an easy win, despite missing my admittedly high expectations. The only film in the top five to be a pleasant surprise was A Haunted House, although "pleasant" is not a word most critics were using to describe it. The box office pulled in $141 million overall, which was 4.7% lower than last weekend. More importantly though, it was 6.3% higher than the same weekend last year, which means if A Haunted House bombed like I thought it would, 2013 would have lost in the year-over-year comparison. Fortunately, we had a second win in as many weeks and 2013 is off to an early 22% lead, at $441 million to $362 million.
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January 14th, 2013
Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out their awards last night, and the trend of surprises continues. Les Miserables led the way with three awards, only one of which I was truly expecting. Meanwhile, Argo won more awards than Lincoln. I don't think anyone was predicting that.
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January 13th, 2013
As expected, Zero Dark Thirty will ride its Oscar nominations to a win at the box office this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. But the overall Oscar effect seems quite small. In fact, A Haunted House, which it's safe to say won't be on any Oscar lists this time next year, will have the highest per theater average in the top 10, and came in a very creditable second place with $18.8 million from just 2,160 theaters. Gangster Squad, which has some Oscar-style pedigree, but suffered from a delay for reshoots following the Aurora tragedy, will come in third with a slightly disappointing $16.7 million from 3,103 venues.
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January 11th, 2013
With the Oscar nominations announced yesterday, most movie aficionados are focusing on that. This is great news for Zero Dark Thirty, which picked up five Oscars yesterday and should lead the box office this week. There are other films opening wide this week. This includes Gangster Squad, which should do acceptable business, even though its reviews are weak. Finally there's A Haunted House, which is an early contender for worst movie of the year. Last year, Contraband opened with just over $24 million and I think Zero Dark Thirty will top that. Overall, 2013 looks pretty good in comparison.
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January 10th, 2013
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning, and there's certainly a lot to talk about. There are some nominations that should surprise no one. For instance, Lincoln led the way with twelve nominations, and it has been seen as the major contender for a long time. However, there were also a few surprise nominations and some major snubs. Here are the list of nominations, and some reactions.
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January 7th, 2013
There was a pleasant surprise during the first weekend of 2013, as Texas Chainsaw 3D opened in first place with more than $20 million. Django Unchained also beat that milestone. The overall box office still fell from last weekend, down 18% to $147 million, but this is to be expected for a post-holiday weekend. It was 5.9% higher than the same weekend last year and 2013 is off to an early lead over 2012 at $253 million to $191 million. Hopefully I don't have to tell you it is way too early to pay serious attention to those numbers, but it is better to win early than fall behind.
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January 7th, 2013
Surprises seems to be the word of the day, as the WGA nominations included a number of them. Granted, Zero Dark Thirty and a lot of the other films that have earned Awards Season success thus far were here, but there were almost as many surprises as there were obvious choices.
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January 6th, 2013
Producers Guild of America announced their nominations this week, including the three theatrical categories. There were a number of films on the list that have been mentioned time and time again this awards season, like Zero Dark Thirty, but there were also a few surprises.
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January 6th, 2013
After a few weeks of family fare at the top of the box office charts, teens and young adults are reasserting themselves in movie theaters this weekend, pushing Texas Chainsaw 3D to a surprise win and Django Unchained above The Hobbit. Both films will earn over $20 million this weekend, according to studio estimates. There's also a lot of strength in depth this weekend, with 21 films set to earn over $1 million. That's not quite a record (25 films topped $1 million the weekends of January 12, 2007 and the following weekend -- for the full list, see our analysis), but it's certainly a healthy way to start 2013.
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January 4th, 2013
Its the first weekend of 2013 and there is one new wide release and a previous limited release expanding semi-wide. Will either film compete for top spot? Not likely. There are some recent examples of horror films opening well in January, so Texas Chainsaw 3D could be a surprise hit, but there's also a chance it won't reach the top 5. Meanwhile, Promised Land is a message movie, but one that has limited appeal beyond those that agree with the message. This means The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will remain on top of the box office chart. If it does so, it will mean in the past nine weeks, only three films have earned first place over the weekend. 2012 got off to a strong start and last year the box office was led by The Devil Inside, which made $33.73 million. I don't think any film will make $20 million over the weekend this year, so 2013 could start off on a losing note.
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January 3rd, 2013
The winner of our Army of Two contest was determined and it is...
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January 3rd, 2013
Zero Dark Thirty shot up to the top of the per theater chart with averages of $83,430 during its opening weekend and $63,283 during its sophomore stint. Expanding truly wide is virtually guaranteed. Amour was well back with an average of $20,005 over the past weekend and $22,755 during its opening weekend. The Impossible rose 27% to $12,172 in 15 theaters. This is a great sign and while its reviews are too low to be a major contender during Awards Season, it should still do well enough to expand significantly, but probably not truly wide. The final film in the $10,000 club was Django Unchained, which opened with an average of $10,008.
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January 3rd, 2013
All of the final box office numbers we're going to get are in, so let's take a look at the last two weeks at the box office. There were not a lot of changes with the final numbers and no film switched places, so there's not a lot to update. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey remained in top spot in both weeks with Django Unchained in close second this weekend and Jack Reacher a distant second the weekend before. The year ended with $10.76 billion, or about 5.8% higher than last year's total and just a hair above 2009's record total.
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December 31st, 2012
The last news story of the year is the weekend wrap-up, but since many studios are still closed for the holidays, we are still dealing with estimates. It appears that The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey won a close race for top spot just ahead of Django Unchained. Additionally, every film in the top five came within a rounding error of predictions, or was better than expected, and the overall box office was massive compared to last year. We won't have final numbers for the last two weekends till Wednesday or Thursday, so there will be a lot of catching up to do, but it is hard to complain about the results we've seen.
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December 30th, 2012
2012 comes to an end on a decidedly positive note for the movie industry this weekend, thanks to strong performances from three films. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will come out on top, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, with $32.92 million or so for the weekend and a total to date of $222.7 million. Django Unchained will post an impressive second place with $30.7 million and a per theater average over $10,000. Finally, Les Miserables is set for a little over $28 million, for a six-day total of $67.5 million. With those three films bringing in $90 million between, and plenty of strength in depth, 2012 will finish on a winning note.
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December 28th, 2012
There are three wide releases this weekend; however, all of them were released on Christmas day, so we have a few box office numbers to look at. Les Miserables was a surprise winner on Christmas day, while both Django Unchained and Parental Guidance also beat expectations, which bodes well for their perform this weekend. Even so, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will likely remain in top spot as it crosses $200 million domestically. Compared to last year the box office looks pretty good. No film topped $30 million last year, but The Hobbit should get to that mark this year. However, last year seven films topped $10 million, while only six will do so this year. 2013 has a shot at ending on a winning note, but it should be close.
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December 27th, 2012
This year, Christmas fell on a really awkward day and compounded with the smart decision for some studios to close the entire week, dealing with the weekend box office numbers is a little trickier this year. We are still stuck with a mixture of final numbers and studio estimates, but since we won't get absolute final numbers till likely January 2nd, we should at least talk about the numbers we have. We won't be able to compare the full weekend to last week or last year, because we don't have the full weekend numbers. But since most of the films failed to match expectations, things look grim.
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December 20th, 2012
There are not a lot of limited releases on this week's list; however, there are three films that have already found some Awards Season success, plus a couple others that are earning great reviews. Of the Awards Season hopefuls, Zero Dark Thirty is poised to earn the best per theater average, but it likely won't be the only success story over the weekend.
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December 20th, 2012
Next weekend is a mess. Let's be upfront about that right now. There are three new wide releases opening next weekend, but all three films are opening on Christmas Day, which lands on the Tuesday. Of these three films, both Django Unchained and Les Miserables have a shot at top spot, while Parental Guidance is clearly counter-programming. Django Unchained has nearly perfect reviews and some of the loudest buzz we've heard for any film opening this winter. As such, it is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Django Unchained.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they going over or under, will win a copy of Army Wives: Season Six, Part One and Part Two on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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December 19th, 2012
For the next week, starting tonight and running till Christmas day, there are eight films opening wide, or at least wide enough to predict they will enter the top ten. Despite that level of competition, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, will very likely remain in top spot. Jack Reacher looks to be the best of the new releases, at least for the weekend. Meanwhile, This is 40 probably won't start as fast, but Judd Apatow's films tend to have really good legs. Monsters, Inc. is debuting in 3D tonight, but is destined to be a midlevel hit and nothing more. The Guilt Trip is also opening tonight, but I'm not sure it has the buzz to even be a midlevel hit. The final new release of the weekend is Cirque du Soleil: Worlds Away, but with an opening theater count of just 800, it will struggle just to reach to the top ten. And because Christmas lands on the Tuesday, and we won't have another weekend prediction column till Friday, we need to talk about the three Christmas day releases, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, and Parental Guidance. Last year, Christmas day landed on the Sunday, which makes the comparisons between weekends nearly impossible. I'm going to assume 2012 is going to come out ahead, mainly because they had nothing to compare to The Hobbit, so as long as this year's new releases are as strong as last years holdovers, victory is a safe bet.
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December 13th, 2012
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominations and the same list of films that have been mentioned since the beginning of Awards Season were rewarded today. Lincoln led the way with seven nods, while Argo and Django Unchained were close behind with five.
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December 12th, 2012
SAG nominations were announced and there were only a few surprises to deal with. Leading the way for total nominations was The Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Les Miserables, all of which earned nominations in four of the six categories.
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December 1st, 2012
November was a strong month and left 2012 with a very easy path to a new all time record. There was only one major miss the entire month, Rise of the Guardians, while The Silver Linings Playbook was pulled from wide release at the last minute, so it is a little hard to judge its box office performance. On the positive side, Skyfall might top original expectations by $100 million. All this December has to do is maintain pace with last December to ensure 2012 sets the new record. I would like to say that will be easy to do, but I really don't know. Last year, there was only one $200 million hit, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, plus a few others that reached $100 million, so the bar isn't set too high. This year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is expected to at least come close to $300 million. Some think it will earn more than $400 million. However, it could also be the last film to make $100 million till February. December is normally a very good month to release a film, but the release schedule is so messed up that it makes it very hard to predict what will happen. There appears to be just ten films opening truly wide this month (I'm getting mixed signals on a few of them). That's a really light schedule for a month and a light schedule tends to help maximize the box office potential for individual films. However, eight of these films open wide within a seven-day period. That's insane. There's no way all of those films will find an audience and there's a chance that due to the competition, none of them will. Let's hope the situation isn't as bad as that, but there are some serious reasons to be concerned for most new releases coming out this month.
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