Home Market Releases for February 9th, 2016

February 8th, 2016

It's a strange week on the home market, as we have a monster release coming out, Spectre. There are also four or so releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week. But after that, there's a huge drop in quality and we quickly reach releases that are not even worthy of being fillers. Of the contenders, Grandma is the Pick of the Week and it is certainly worth picking up on Blu-ray. More...

Home Market Releases for January 26th, 2016

January 26th, 2016

It is a really slow week on the home market this week. Not only are there very few releases, none of them are top-tier. The biggest release of the week is Goosebumps, but it is only good and not great. There are plenty of films worth picking up (The Assassin, Chi-raq, The Wrong Man, etc.) but none truly rise to Pick of the Week level. More...

International Box Office: Martian Completes Another Orbit

October 28th, 2015

The Martian returned to first place with $30.0 million in 73 markets for totals of $218.8 million internationally and $385.0 million worldwide. The film's only major market opening was in France where it earned second place with $6.81 million on 560 screens. It also remained in first place in South Korea with $3.99 million on 731 screens over the weekend for a three-week total of $28.43 million. I don't know if it has broken even yet, but it is very close to getting there. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases were Hunted Down

October 26th, 2015

Most of the new releases were not expected to do well at the box office. ... Almost no one saw this coming. We had some near-record bombs this weekend and even the best of the new releases were terrible. This left The Martian in first place; in fact, the top three spots and four of the top five were held by holdovers. The best new release, The Last Witch Hunter, barely cracked the $10 million mark. The overall box office fell 14% from last weekend to $105 million. This was also 9.5% lower than the same weekend last year. Midweek numbers were better this year than last year, so the year-over-year actually improved and 2015 now has a 5.2% lead over 2014 at $8.60 billion to $8.18 billion. More...

Friday Estimates: Rock Bottom

October 24th, 2015

Where to start? There are so many new releases to talk about and none of them did well. Some did so poorly that talking about them seems mean. So, let’s start by saying that Friday’s box office chart was led by The Martian, while Goosebumps has a shot at repeating on top of the chart, with each film earning about $14 million to $15 million. Meanwhile, Bridge of Spies should earn third place over the weekend with between $11 million and $12 million. More...

Midnight Box Office: Not a lot of (Paranormal) Activity at Midnight Showings

October 23rd, 2015

There were four films that had midnight shows last night, but none of them did particularly well. In fact, had their combined total been earned by one movie, it still wouldn't be much to celebrate about. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension led the way with $600,000 in 1,000 theaters. This is substantially lower than the $800,000 Crimson Peak earned just last week, and that film wasn't a big hit at the box office during its opening weekend. Additionally, Crimson Peak's reviews are a lot better The Ghost Dimension's reviews are. Add in the sequel effect and we could be in for a really bad opening weekend. More...

International Box Office: Ant-Man is Big Man in China

October 22nd, 2015

Ant-Man made a triumphant return to the international chart with a first place, $43.5 million run in 3 markets for totals of $275.9 million internationally and $454.7 million worldwide. Nearly all of this weekend haul came from China, where the film opened in first place with $42.77 million. (Some are reporting it came in second place to Goodbye Mr. Loser, but they are comparing the film's weekly total to Ant-Man's opening weekend.) Depending on how much money the film cost to advertise worldwide, it might have broken even already. If not, it will get there very early in its home market run. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Goosebumps Leads Unstimulating Weekend

October 20th, 2015

It is hard to get excited about the weekend box office results, as the top four films all missed predictions. (Granted, Bridge of Spies came within a rounding error of expectations.) Goosebumps did well for a live-action family film, but still not great. The Martian fell faster than anticipated, but it was Crimson Peak that was the biggest disappointment. Overall, the box office rose 2.5% from last weekend to $121 million. However, this was 7.6% lower than the same weekend last year. Had every film in the top five matched expectations, then this gap would have been reduced to just a percent or two. Despite this, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by more than $400 million at $8.46 billion to $8.05 billion. It would take a few more weeks of year-over-year declines before I would be concerned. More...

Weekend Estimates: Goosebumps Set to Win Tight Race

October 18th, 2015

A slightly-softer-than-expected (but still good) opening for Goosebumps will be enough to take the film to the top of the box office chart this weekend, according to studio projections released on Sunday morning. Sony expects the family horror adventure to come in with $23.5 million on opening weekend, which is a solid enough start, and sets the film up for a good run, helped by strong reviews and Halloween coming up in a couple of weeks. The Martian will land in second with a projected $21.5 million as of this morning, a slightly steeper-than-expected 42% decline from last weekend, and a total to date around $144 million. In general, we’re looking at quite a few steep drops from last weekend thanks to an unfavorable comparison with the Columbus Day long weekend and a batch of new releases. More...

Friday Estimates: Close Race for First makes for Interesting Weekend

October 17th, 2015

It looks like it will be a very interesting weekend, as Goosebumps and The Martian appear to be in a close race for first place. Goosebumps led the way on Friday with $7.35 million. This is 40% more than Pan’s opening day last weekend. Add in the film’s better reviews and its family-friendly target audience and it should have a solid internal multiplier, perhaps in the vacinity of Alexander and the Blah, Blah, Blah. That puts Goosebumps on track for a $25 million opening. That’s a little lower than I would have liked and the film will need solid legs and a reasonable international run to break even. I wouldn’t bet against it breaking even, but I don't think it will be turned into a franchise. More...

Midnight Box Office: Crimson Peak Scares Goosebumps

October 16th, 2015

Two scary films started their box office runs last night with Crimson Peak earning $855,000, putting it ahead of Goosebumps, which pulled in $600,000. By comparison, Sinister 2 earned $800,000 during its midnight showings on its way to a $10.54 million opening weekend. Sinister 2 had ... issues with its reviews, unlike Crimson Peak, which is earning 68% positive reviews. Perhaps Ouija, which opened this time last year, would be a better comparison. It earned $911,000 during its midnight shows on its way to a $19.88 million opening weekend. It too struggled with critics, but I think the release date makes it a better comparison. Crimson Peak could reach $20 million over the weekend. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Goosebumps Bump Off the Competition?

October 15th, 2015

We are getting closer to Halloween and there are two scary movies opening wide this weekend. Goosebumps is a live-action family film and as we saw with Pan, those are rarely big hits. On the other hand, this film is earning great reviews and cost about 60% less to make, so even if it just matches Pan's opening, it will still have a shot at profitability. Crimson Peak is an old-fashioned Haunted House horror film, similar to The Woman in Black, but with a $55 million production budget. That might be too much to recoup. Finally there's Bridge of Spies, a Cold War era Spy Thriller. Its reviews are the best for this week, but its target audience isn't known for rushing out to see a movie opening weekend. This weekend last year, there were five films with more than $10 million, but only one with more than $20 million. This year, we should have the same number of $10 million movies, but at least two $20 million movies and perhaps even a $30 million movie. I think 2015 has the edge in the year-over-year comparison, but unless the new releases are bigger hits than most anticipate, it could be close. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Box Office Celebrates Double-Milestone on Top

October 13th, 2015

There was some great news at the box office this weekend, as both The Martian and Hotel Transylvania 2 reached the century mark. On the other hand, Pan bombed performing even worse than expected. I don't think there's really any controversy in saying it bombed, as the $150 million movie opened with less than Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day made last year. The overall depth was also weak, which led to the box office falling 21% from last week and 20% from last year. 2015 is still way ahead of 2014, $8.30 billion to $7.87 billion, and it would take a serious collapse for that lead to evaporate before the end of the year. More...

2015 Preview: October

October 1st, 2015

September ended on a record note with the debut of Hotel Transylvania 2. Additionally, there was great depth and 2015's lead over 2014 grew to nearly $500 million. How do things look going forward? The month starts out with The Martian, which should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the month and might even top $200 million. On the other hand, no other film is expected to get to $100 million. There's only one or two that will even come close. Fortunately, last October was very similar with one $100 million hit, Gone Girl, while two other films came close, Annabelle and Fury. It looks like it will be up to the depth films from both years to determine which year comes out on top. More...