Weekend estimates: Candyman lands with strong $22.37-million opening

August 29, 2021

Candyman

Candyman went into the weekend a firm favorite for top spot at the box office after posting $1.9 million in previews on Thursday. That number pointed to a weekend just shy of $20 million, but the film posted an excellent $9.14 million on Friday, and will hold on for an opening weekend projected at $22.37 million by Universal this morning. While that’s only the third-best weekend in August, after Free Guy’s $28.4-million debut and The Suicide Squad’s $26.2-million opening, it comfortably out-performs our model’s prediction, and it gives the theatrical market a welcome, and much-needed, boost.




Note: Weekend projection for Respect is unofficial.

Candyman’s performance was particularly strong in the African-American community, with its demographic breakdown measured as 37% African-American, 30% Caucasian, 22% Hispanic, 6% Asian, and 5% “Other”. That’s very nearly identical to the audience for MA back in 2019 (that film had an audience that was 36% African-American, and every other demographic was within 1% of the share for Candyman). While that’s one of the highest shares for a black audience among recent films, there’s no question there is strong crossover appeal for Candyman—Queen & Slim, by comparison, had an audience that was 54% African-American on opening weekend.

The reason for the broad appeal of the film is almost certainly because of the involvement of Jordan Peele, who has now written three films that topped the box office on opening weekend. Relatively speaking, Candyman is actually performing better than Get Out so far. That film opened with $33.4 million back in 2017, which would translate into a weekend around $17 million right now. It had spectacular legs, however, which seems less likely for Candyman. Still, this is a great start and Candyman’s solid performance through the weekend and good audience response means it should be around for a while.

This week’s returning films have generally performed in line with expectations. The Protégé is the best among them, with a modest 43% fall in its second weekend, reflecting its appeal to a slightly older demographic. PAW Patrol, meanwhile will top its prediction thanks to its appeal to a much younger demographic. Those two, plus Candyman of course, will ensure that the market as a whole is almost exactly flat compared to last weekend, with the top nine earning $57.5 million compared to $57.9 million last weekend.

There’s no question that the recovery of the theatrical market has fallen behind what we hoped for going into the Summer, with the Delta variant of COVID-19 slamming some parts of the United States, and wildfires and Hurricane Ida causing some disruptions too this weekend. Our 2021 tracking has the market coming in at around $65 million to $75 million each weekend since mid-July—essentially treading water. The arrival of Shang Chi next weekend should see us break out of that pattern, and hopefully produce the first $100-million weekend for the market since July 9, when Black Widow appeared in theaters.

Shang Chi could dominate the chart through September, but the same could be (and was) said about The Suicide Squad going in to August and Free Guy and Candyman proved to be the highlights of the month. We’ll need that kind of breadth in hits to get the market going into October, and a still-packed Fall Season, in good shape.

- Weekend studio estimates

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Black Widow, Candyman, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Protégé, PAW Patrol: The Movie, Jordan Peele