Weekend Estimates: Jumanji Blows Past Predictions with $60-million Debut
December 15, 2019
Jumanji: The Next Level is not only beating predictions, but is also topped projections based on Friday’s estimates. The film’s weekend estimate is $60.1 million, which is easily more than the rest of the top ten combined. It is also 66% higher than the Welcome to the Jungle’s opening weekend, although that film had a Wednesday opening, so it isn’t a fair comparison. Internationally, the film is nearly as impressive, earning $85.7 million on 39,900 screens in 52 markets for totals of $152.5 million internationally and $212.6 million worldwide. This includes a monster opening in the U.K., where it earned $12.6 million over the five-day weekend, including previews. This is 32% ahead of the previous installment in the franchise. Overall, the new film is 33% ahead of Welcome to the Jungle’s performance in the same group of new markets. If you look at is box office so far, add in its solid reviews and the Christmas break and we are looking at a $1 billion worldwide run. Sony had a really bad three-year streak a few years ago, but this is the second year in a row where they have been back in form.
Frozen II is matching our prediction nearly perfectly with $19.2 million over the weekend, which would give it $366.5 million after four weeks of release. It is on pace to hit $400 million domestically without needing help from Christmas. The film is also holding on well internationally, earning an estimated $55.7 million in 48 markets for totals of $666.0 million, to push its worldwide total past the billion dollar mark at $1.033 billion. It is the eighth film released in 2019 to hit $1 billion worldwide. It won’t be the last.
Knives Out remains on pace to get to $100 million with an estimated $9.25 million over the weekend for a total of $78.93 million after three weeks of release. It likely wouldn’t be able to hit the century mark without the help of Christmas, but with the holidays, it should get there with room to spare.
Richard Jewell is earning an estimated $5.0 million, which is well below expectations. Additionally, its reviews are not award-worthy like many assumed it would be, so even with an A-rating from CinemaScore, it likely won’t have as long legs as it otherwise would have. On the positive side, due to the usual contracts and the Christmas break, it won’t lose a ton of theaters until January.
Black Christmas is having an even worse opening with an estimated $4.42 million during its opening weekend. It also had the worst reviews of the three new releases and only managed a D plus from CinemaScore, which is weak, even for a horror film. Furthermore, its international debut is even weaker at just $3.1 million in 37 markets. It didn’t crack $1 million in any market. It didn’t even get halfway there. Its biggest market was France at $421,000 on 423 screens, which wasn’t even enough to reach the top ten in that market. The film landed in fifth place in the U.K. with $379,000 in 401 theaters.
As for limited releases, Bombshell is dominating the way with an average of just over $78,000 in four theaters. Its reviews are barely in the overall positive level, so it might stumble in its wide expansion this Friday, but for now, this is a terrific start.
- Friday Estimates
- Thursday Night Previews
- Weekend Predictions
- Theater Counts
- Weekend Box Office Chart
- Friday Box Office Chart
- Thursday previews
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Frozen II, Richard Jewell, Black Christmas, Jumanji: The Next Level, Knives Out, Bombshell, Jumanji