Weekend Predictions: Will Christmas Come a Week Early?
December 12, 2019
Jumanji: The Next Level will have no trouble earning first place and could earn more than Frozen II, Black Christmas, and Richard Jewell will earn combined. The real question is whether or not the overall box office will keep pace with the same weekend last year when Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse debuted with $35.36 million. I really think Jumanji will top that figure while this year will also have marginally better depth helping 2019 earn a much needed win in the year-over-year competition.
Jumanji: The Next Level was inevitable after the box office success of the previous Jumanji’s film, Welcome to the Jungle. That film opened with $36.17 million back in 2017. That’s nothing special, but it had fantastic legs, earning over $400 million domestically and nearly $1 billion worldwide. Like I said, a sequel was inevitable. As for this film’s box office chances, it will almost certainly start out faster, despite Sony predicting a $35 million opening. Studios tend to downplay their own films, so the films look like they beat expectations. Industry tracking is mostly in the $40 million to $50 million range, although I have seen some a little higher than that. I would love to see this film open north of $50 million, but I think that’s unlikely. The film’s reviews are good, but not as good as the previous film’s reviews were. Also, it has to deal with less competition during its opening weekend, but a lot more next week. Look for a $42 million debut and good, but not fantastic legs.
Frozen II will finally get knocked out of first place, but should still be solid with close to $20 million. This would keep it on pace to top $400 million domestically by the end of the year.
Black Christmas is a remake to the 1974 film of the same name. This time around, the remake has a more modern feel with the female characters more than just passive victims for an unseen killer. That said, the reviews are only mixed and horror films are rarely breakout hits at the box office. It should open in third place with about $12 million, but it won’t have the same legs as the other two wide releases and will finish with the lowest total.
It looks like Richard Jewell will be busted Oscar-bait. Its reviews are good, but not award-worthy and while it has already picked up a major nomination, it isn’t living up to expectations there and that could further hurt its box office chances. It isn’t going to bomb; in fact, an $11 million opening and typical Christmas legs should help it past $50 million domestically.
Knives Out should round out the top five with $9 million, meaning it should hit $100 million, even if it has to wait till January to get there.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Frozen II, Richard Jewell, Black Christmas, Jumanji: The Next Level, Knives Out, Jumanji