Friday Estimates: Parabellum’s Unparalleled Success
May 18, 2019
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum got off to a surprisingly strong start on Friday with $22.67 million during its first day of release. Even if we subtract Thursday’s previews, this is still more than the first film made during its opening weekend. It would take incredibly short legs for Parabellum to not earn more during its opening weekend than the first film earned in total. It should have reasonable legs over the weekend. Granted, it is a sequel and its target audience is known to rush out to theaters; however, its reviews are strong and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, tying it with the second film for best in the franchise. With a little luck, it will crack $60 million over the full weekend.
Avengers: Endgame earned $7.37 million on Friday for a total of $748.77 million so far. It is matching expectations nearly perfectly and should overtake Avatar on the all-time domestic chart by the end of the weekend.
Pokémon: Detective Pikachu was next with $6.26 million on Friday for an eight-day total of $75.45 million. It fell nearly 70% from its opening Friday, which is very sharp for a family film. It’s much sharper than its reviews or A minus from CinemaScore would indicate. Hopefully it will bounce back on Saturday and at least come close to our $25 million prediction.
A Dog’s Journey missed low end expectations with just $2.52 million on Friday. In fact, with a start like that, it could miss the Mendoza Line over the weekend. It is aimed at families and while its reviews are not great, it earned an A from CinemaScore, so that should help its legs. It won’t crack $10 million over the weekend, but it should come relatively close with nearly $9 million.
The Hustle was next with $1.81 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just under $7 million over the full weekend. The film fell 55% from its opening Friday, but given its reviews, it could have fallen a lot more than that .
The Sun is Also A Star bombed with just $1.04 million on Friday, putting it on pace for less than $3 million over the weekend and well below the Mendoza Line. It is an adaptation of a Young Adult novel and while these movies were briefly big at the box office, market saturation killed that trend almost as fast as it began. Not only are its reviews just 50% positive, but it had the worst CinemaScore of the weekend, earning a straight B from opening night audiences.
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Filed under: Friday Estimates, Avengers: Endgame, The Hustle, John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum, Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, The Sun is Also a Star, A Dog’s Journey, John Wick