The Numbers News - June 2025

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Weekend projections: F1 makes flying start with $55.6 million, while M3GAN 2.0 is a major miss

June 29, 2025

F1 will beat our Friday-morning prediction by a few million dollars, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection. The studio has the motor racing action movie opening with $55.6 million this morning, and an even more impressive $88.4 million internationally, for a global debut of $144 million. Among other landmarks, this is Brad Pitt’s biggest global opening weekend. Meanwhile, M3GAN 2.0 is a major miss for Universal and Blumhouse, with just $10.2 million domestically, and only $7 million overseas. More...

Weekend predictions: F1 roaring to $50 million or more, while M3GAN 2.0 stalls

June 27, 2025

F1: The Movie is set to zoom to the top of the box office chart this weekend with an opening exceeding $50 million, setting the record for a live action movie based on motor sports by topping Talldega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby. Meanwhile, M3GAN 2.0 looks as though it is paying the price for straying too far from its roots, with a debut likely well under $20 million. More...

Theater counts: How to Train Your Dragon dodges two newcomers to remain the widest release

June 26, 2025

The weekend box office proved to be a much tighter race for How to Train Your Dragon in its second go-around, staving off newcomer 28 Years Later for the repeat win, this time $36.58 million to the latter’s $30 million. The current leader will have its hands full this weekend, however, as Brad Pitt’s Formula One feature races into theaters along with horror sequel M3GAN 2.0, also setting her sights on toppling the reigning champ. More...

Weekend projections: How to Train Your Dragon holds on at top with $37 million

June 22, 2025

How to Train Your Dragon will comfortably stay at the top of the box office chart this weekend, with Universal projecting it will decline 56% from its opening weekend to $37 million this time around. Every film in the top 10 is coming in behind our model’s Friday prediction, with 28 Years Later looking set to finish with $30 million on debut, and Elio headed for a disappointing $21 million. More...

Weekend predictions: 28 Years and Elio start out strong, but final weekend results uncertain

June 20, 2025

28 Years Later and Elio have both posted strong preview numbers, with Sony reporting $5.8 million for the horror movie, and Disney picking up $3 million from Pixar’s latest offering. How that will translate into final weekend numbers depends on two factors. As usual, word-of-mouth and general momentum play a major role, but this weekend we have the added complication of Juneteenth falling on Thursday. That will have boosted box office, but we don’t know by how much exactly. How to Train Your Dragon is widely viewed as the favorite to win the weekend, but there’s still some room for a surprise. More...

How to Train Your Dragon whips up another weekend as widest release

June 19, 2025

It was another fun weekend for moviegoers as How to Train Your Dragon made its theatrical debut, to the tune of an impressive $84.63 million from a starting location count of 4,356 theaters. The film’s second weekend, however, will provide a significantly bigger test as three newcomers are set to challenge the current champ at the domestic box office. How to Train Your Dragon boosts its theater count to 4,373 this weekend, adding 17 venues from its opening run. More...

Weekend projections: How to Train Your Dragon lands with excellent $83.7 million

June 15, 2025

How to Train Your Dragon will open with about $83.7 million this weekend, according to Universal’s Sunday-morning prediction. While a little short of our model’s Friday-lunchtime prediction of $89.4 million, that’s a great result, particularly given that it’s easily the best weekend ever for the franchise, topping Hidden World’s $55 million debut back in 2019. More...

Weekend predictions: How to Train Your Dragon heading to roaring opening

June 13, 2025

How to Train Your Dragon looks like a good bet to post the third-best weekend of the year after a strong set of previews on Wednesday and Thursday. Whether it can hit $100 million on debut, like Lilo & Stitch and A Minecraft Movie, will depend heavily on how it performs through the tail-end of the weekend. More...

Theater counts: How to Train Your Dragon soars into 4,356 theaters

June 12, 2025

It was another win for Lilo & Stitch at the domestic box office over the weekend, with the film posting over $32 million in its third frame, outpointing newcomer Ballerina by nearly $8 million, and taking its 17-day North American total to $335.66 million. The animated feature will yield to another newcomer this weekend as How to Train Your Dragon makes its way into theaters. More...

Weekend projections: Ballerina posts relatively modest $25 million as Lilo & Stitch stays top

June 8, 2025

Ballerina may be “From the World of John Wick,” but it isn’t performing as well as one would hope for a film from that franchise. That will let Lilo & Stitch stay top at the box office this weekend, even though it will decline a fairly steep 47% in its third weekend. More...

A Big Bold Beautiful Adventure

June 7, 2025

Romantic drama starring Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell opens in theaters September 19. Full movie details.

Sarah and David are single strangers who meet at a mutual friend’s wedding and soon, through a surprising twist of fate, find themselves on A Big Bold Beautiful Journey—an adventure together where they get to re-live important moments from their respective pasts, illuminating how they got to where they are in the present… and possibly getting a chance to alter their futures. More...

Weekend predictions: Ballerina looking likely to finish second to Lilo & Stitch this weekend

June 6, 2025

Lilo & Stitch looks likely to stay top of the box office chart this weekend as Ballerina needs to pick up pace a little from its $3.75 million in previews to reach $30 million this weekend. Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme will be aiming for the top half of the top 10 as it expands wide, and three other films debut in over 600 theaters this weekend. More...

Theater counts: Lilo & Stitch hold on as widest release for yet another week

June 5, 2025

Lilo & Stitch once again dominated the weekend box office by grabbing just short of $62 million in its second go-around, catapulting its total to an impressive $279 million. After fending off both Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning and newcomer Karate Kid: Legends last weekend, the film will face a much stiffer test this weekend as From the World of John Wick: Ballerina makes its way into theaters. More...

Wicked: For Good trailer

June 4, 2025

Musical starring Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo opens in theaters November 21. Full movie details.

Elphaba, now demonized as The Wicked Witch of the West, lives in exile, hidden within the Ozian forest while continuing her fight for the freedom of Oz’s silenced Animals and desperately trying to expose the truth she knows about The Wizard. Glinda, meanwhile, has become the glamorous symbol of Goodness for all of Oz, living at the palace in Emerald City and reveling in the perks of fame and popularity. As an angry mob rises against the Wicked Witch, Glinda and Elphaba will need to come together one final time. With their singular friendship now the fulcrum of their futures, they will need to truly see each other, with honesty and empathy, if they are to change themselves, and all of Oz, for good. More...

The Life of Chuck trailer

June 4, 2025

Life drama starring Tom Hiddleston, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, and Jacob Tremblay opens in limited release this Friday, expands wide on June 13. Full movie details.

The world feels like it’s ending and everybody’s saying goodbye to Chuck. Wherever Marty goes, he can’t get away from Charles Krantz. His face is showing up on billboards, window signs—even TV commercials. What’s so special about this seemingly ordinary accountant and why does he warrant such a sendoff? More...

The Numbers Business Report: where are the studios making their movies?

June 2, 2025

Recent talk of movie tariffs and tax incentives has focused on “runaway productions” filming outside Los Angeles, California, and the United States. While recent political events have elevated the discussion, it’s a trend that started over 30 years ago, when Louisiana signed their first tax incentives into law in 1992. Today, nearly every state offers some sort of incentive program. California offers a tax credit of 20% to 25%, and is looking to expand its funding, while Georgia offers a base credit of 20% to 30%, dependent on the production including the “Made in Georgia” logo in its film credits.

In the latest issue of The Numbers Business Report, we take a closer look at two fundamental questions driving today’s global production landscape: who is spending money on film production, and where are they spending it? To answer these, we analyzed data from OpusData, focusing specifically on two key variables: our “filming location (country)” keywords and production budgets, covering the period from 2020 to 2025. More...