The Numbers News - May 2025

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Weekend predictions: Lilo & Stitch to stay on top as Karate Kid: Legends challenges for second place on box office chart

May 30, 2025

Lilo & Stitch will easily hold on to top billing on the weekend box office chart, with Karate Kid: Legends headed towards a somewhat disappointing opening around $20 million, based on Thursday preview numbers and our model’s prediction. More...

Theater counts: Lilo and Stitch remains widest release as it ventures into its second weekend

May 29, 2025

It was an outstanding Memorial Day weekend at the domestic box office, with the newcomers racking up nearly $220 million in combined earnings for their 3-day opening and $260 million for their 4-day opening volley. Led by Lilo & Stitch’s $146 million haul and Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning’s $64 million contribution for the 3-day weekend, it was an exciting one for moviegoers of all ages. The competition will be fierce this weekend as two new wide releases will attempt to make their way to the winner’s circle, searching for a box office win. More...

Americana trailer

May 28, 2025

Crime thriller with an ensemble cast led by Sydney Sweeney and Halsey opens in theaters August 22. Full movie details.

After a rare Native American artifact falls onto the black market, a shy waitress with big dreams teams up with a lovelorn military veteran to gain possession of it, putting them in the crosshairs of a ruthless criminal working on behalf of a Western antiquities dealer. Bloodshed ensues when others join the battle, including the leader of an indigenous group and a desperate woman fleeing her mysterious past. More...

Weekend projections: Lilo & Stitch opens with sensational $148 million/$183 million over blockbuster Memorial Day weekend

May 25, 2025

The stars have aligned perfectly for the movie business this weekend, with two films perfect fits for the two big Memorial Day demographic more than hitting their mark. Lilo & Stitch will make around $145 million over three days, and Disney is projecting $183 million over four days, giving it the best 4-day Memorial Day opening of all time. Mission: Impossible—Final Reckoning is doing great business in second place, with $63 million over three days and $77 million over four, setting a franchise record in the process. More...

Weekend predictions: $350-million four-day Memorial Day weekend on the cards, led by Lilo & Stitch

May 23, 2025

Lilo & Stitch is headed to a monster Memorial Day opening, with our model predicting it will earn $148 million over three days and $188 million over four, based on its performance so far. Mission: Impossible—Final Reckoning isn’t far behind, with a three-day total somewhere close to $80 million, and about $95 million likely over four days. More...

Theater counts: Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible cruise into a combined 8,267 theaters

May 22, 2025

It was a stellar weekend at the domestic box office for newcomer Final Destination: Bloodlines as the latest installment scored $51.6 million in its debut, sealing it as the fifth-biggest weekend of 2025, while topping the opening weekend earnings for the franchise. It will be a short-lived reign at the top for Bloodlines this Memorial Day weekend, however, as a duo of heavy hitters are set to make their big screen debuts. More...

Weekend projections: Bloodlines lands with excellent $51-million debut

May 18, 2025

Final Destination: Bloodlines will land with the fifth-biggest weekend of 2025, and a franchise-best $51-million opening this weekend. That beats even the inflation-adjusted $41.3 million earned by The Final Destination on its opening weekend back in 2009. More...

Weekend predictions: Bloodlines destined for big weekend

May 16, 2025

Final Destination: Bloodlines is headed for an excellent opening weekend, with our model predicting it will breeze past the best opening weekend for the franchise, a record held by The Final Destination, AKA Final Destination 4, which clocked in with $27.4 million on its opening weekend back in 2009. Adjusted for ticket price inflation, that’s $41.3 million in today’s movie ticket dollars. Bloodlines stands a decent chance of topping that number too. More...

Theater counts: Thunderbolts fends off a duo of newcomers as it claims another weekend as widest release

May 15, 2025

Last weekend at the box office we witnessed another solid performance for front-runner Thunderbolts* as the Marvel film turned up over $32 million from domestic shows, crossing the $100 million mark on Friday. It currently enjoys a 13-day total of $136.8 million. Thunderbolts* reign atop the box office chart will likely come to an end this weekend, however, as the latest in the Final Destination franchise, Final Destination: Bloodlines, makes its way into theaters. More...

Nobody 2 trailer

May 13, 2025

Action thriller starring Bob Odenkirk opens in theaters August 15. Full movie details. More...

Weekend projections: Thunderbolts’ good hold lands it with $33.1 million on second weekend

May 11, 2025

Thunderbolts* will decline a very respectable 55% from its opening to land with around $33.1 million this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning report. With Sinners seeing its first substantial weekend-to-weekend decline, the Marvel movie will come out a comfortable winner at the box office this weekend. More...

Weekend predictions: Thunderbolts and Sinners fight for top billing

May 9, 2025

Thunderbolts (The New Avengers) will do battle at the top of the box office chart with Sinners this weekend. Thunderbolts* (is it still OK to call it that?) enters the weekend as favorite, with our model predicting a 59% decline from its opening, while Sinners is expected to fall just 18% in its fourth weekend. If those numbers hold up, the two films will both be hovering somewhere in the high 20s to low 30s over three days. With Thunderbolts holding on to PLF screens, it most likely has the edge.

While those two fight for the title this weekend, four new wide releases arrive in theaters. More...

Theater counts: Thunderbolts* deflects a host of newcomers to remain widest release

May 8, 2025

As no surprise, last weekend’s box office belonged to newcomer Thunderbolts* as the latest film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe gobbled up a respectable $74.3 million in its opening weekend while assembling approximately $86 million from overseas play for a global start of $160 million. While there are plenty of options for moviegoers this weekend, it looks to be a near replay of last, with the top three holding steady in their spots for their second, fourth, and sixth frames respectively. More...

The Long Walk trailer

May 7, 2025

Survival thriller, directed by Francis Lawrence, and starring Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, and Mark Hamill opens in theaters September 12. Full movie details.

The task is simple. Walk or die. More...

How to Train Your Dragon trailer

May 6, 2025

Dragon-taming adventure starring Mason Thames opens in theaters June 13. Full movie details.

On the rugged isle of Berk, where Vikings and dragons have been bitter enemies for generations, Hiccup stands apart. The inventive yet overlooked son of Chief Stoick the Vast, Hiccup defies centuries of tradition when he befriends Toothless, a feared Night Fury dragon. Their unlikely bond reveals the true nature of dragons, challenging the very foundations of Viking society. More...

The Numbers Business Report: CinemaCon studio scorecard, box office during recessions, China’s restrictions on US films

May 5, 2025

CinemaCon 2025 wrapped on a high note at the beginning of April, and we’d like to thank Cinema United and everyone we met with for making it a great show. While some studios presented for the first time, the CinemaCon veterans impressed audiences in new ways. In the latest issue of The Numbers Business Report, we provide our unique take on the studio presentations, using objective analysis to rank the movies the studios promoted most heavily, some of which have already hit the big screen.

Our big announcement at CinemaCon was our new six-week theatrical prediction model, which includes daily numbers for all the wide releases hitting theaters in the next six weeks. We are providing this service at no cost to Business Report subscribers for the next month or so, while we refine the model. Once we move to a paid model for the six-week predictions, we’ll be basing pricing on the number of theaters a subscriber is operating. The goal is to make it an invaluable, and reasonably-priced, tool for solo theaters and small chains across North America, while providing value to the larger operators too, of course. Please reach out to business-report@the-numbers.com if you are interested in participating in the beta test phase.

This year, CinemaCon took place against a backdrop of economic uncertainty, with steep tariffs announced around the time we were enjoying a preview screening of How to Train Your Dragon, as we recall. This issue of the Report includes two pieces of analysis that look at what the changing economic landscape might do to the theatrical movie business: first, we tackle the perennial question of whether more people attend movies during recessions; second, we examine the potential cost of China’s newly-announced restrictions on the release of US-produced films might cost the studios. Read the Report for our in-depth findings. More...

Weekend projections: Thunderbolts lives up to expectations

May 4, 2025

The biggest franchise in movie history tops the box office chart yet again this weekend, with Thunderbolts* posting a very respectable $76 million on debut. While that’s technically in the lower half of the range of results for MCU movies on debut, it’s better than the debuts of Eternals and Shang-Chi (albeit by only a fraction in the latter case, and based only on the projected figure). While far short of the kind of weekends we saw during the golden era of Marvel, the domestic opening, plus $86.1 million internationally, takes the film to a health $162 million to date. More...

Weekend predictions: Thunderbolts* set for great* opening weekend

May 2, 2025

Thunderbolts* stacked up $11.5 million in preview grosses yesterday, and is set to post one of the biggest weekends of 2025. That’s objectively great news, coming off a fantastic April for the industry, courtesy of A Minecraft Movie and Sinners. The only asterisk against the performance of Thunderbolts is that it will post another sub-$100-million opening for the Marvel Cinematic Universe. More...

Theater counts: Thunderbolts* strikes in 4,330 theaters

May 1, 2025

The weekend box office saw another win for Sinners as the film crossed the $100 million mark on Saturday, finishing its second weekend with $45.71 million for a total of $123.24 million. With a mere 6% decline from its opening weekend, the Michael B. Jordan film found itself third on the all-time list of smallest declining films, just behind Shrek and Avatar, respectively. The film will fall out of first place, however, this weekend as newcomer Thunderbolts* makes its way into theaters. More...