2020 Awards Season: Oscars Winners and Reactions

February 10th, 2020

The Oscars were handed out last night and unlike most years, I wasn’t able to live-blog the awards. This is a real shame, because it was one of the best Oscar nights I can remember and there were very few awards that made me legitimately angry, unlike many years in the past. There was even a surprise winner for the full night, as Parasite earned the most wins with four Oscars. It is incredibly rare for a foreign-language film to pull off that feat. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Nominations

January 13th, 2020

The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year. More...

2020 - Awards Season: Golden Globes Winners

January 6th, 2020

The Golden Globes winners were announced on Sunday and we have some interesting developments for the rest of Awards Season. 1917 wasn’t considered a front-runner with five films earning more nominations. However, after this result, it might be the front-runner to become the big winner on Oscar night. More...

2020 - Awards Season: SAG - Nominations

December 12th, 2019

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominations this week and we are starting to see some patterns with similar names appearing over and over again. This time Bombshell led the way, earning four nominations, but four other films earned two or more nominations. More...

2020 Awards Season: Golden Globes Nominations

December 11th, 2019

The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods. More...

2019 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I - First-Run Releases and Franchise Box Sets

November 27th, 2019

It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This year, Thanksgiving is as late as it could have been, which means there’s no way to squeeze in four weeks of regular installments of the gift guide, as well as the December monthly preview, etc. So we are going to have a condensed list this year. That said, there weren’t a ton of first-run releases that would have made this list regardless. More...

Home Market Releases for August 27th, 2019

August 28th, 2019

This week, the main list of new releases is particularly short for two reasons. Firstly, it is a slow week. Secondly, I’ve filtered out the TV on DVD releases for their own section. I’ve been meaning to do this for a while and we are entering the heart of TV on DVD season on the home market, so it made sense to do it this week. (I’m including all TV on DVD releases, both individual seasons and full series Megasets.) As for the biggest new releases, there are not a lot to talk about. Godzilla: King of the Monsters and The Secret Life of Pets 2 both missed expectations at the box office, but both are worth picking up for their respective target audiences. As for the best, only The Last Black Man in San Francisco and Rocketman are contenders for Pick of the Week. The latter has far better extras, but the former is the better movie and wins that title. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Weekend Bests Estimates, Still Clobbered by Incredibles

June 18th, 2019

There is some good news to report, as the weekend final numbers beat both the projections based on Friday estimates and Sunday’s estimates. There’s also some bad news. Even with this improvement, the weekend was really soft at the box office. Men in Black: International led the way with just $30.04 million during its opening weekend, while only two other films topped $10 million over the weekend. This left the overall box office down 18% from last weekend to just $135 million. This is 50% lower than the same weekend last year; a decline that we normally only see when there is a misalignment in a holiday. However, in this case, it was due to Incredibles 2, which earned more by itself than the total box office did this year. This has left 2019 further behind 2018 and it is now off last year’s pace by 7.0% or $370 million at $4.99 billion to $5.36 billion. Several weeks worth of gaining ground has gone in a single weekend. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Skies for MiB

June 16th, 2019

According to weekend estimates, Men in Black: International is topping projections based on Friday estimates, but is still weaker than predicted with $28.5 million. This is a pleasant surprise, as the film’s reviews are terrible and its B from CinemaScore strongly suggested weaker legs. Maybe it will continue to surprise going forward. The film is doing much better internationally with $73.7 million on 41,400 screens in 56 markets. This includes $26.3 million in China, $5.1 million in Russia, $4.9 million in South Korea, and $3.9 million in Mexico. On the downside, the film has opened in most major markets, so it will be mostly coasting on holdovers at this point. It should still earn enough to cover its production budget worldwide, but that’s not enough to break even in any timely fashion. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases Miss Expectations and Estimates

June 11th, 2019

It was a mixed weekend at the box office with neither of the two new releases matching expectations. Not only that, but most of the top five missed estimates as well. This led to a result 5.6% lower than last weekend falling to $164 million. I was really expecting growth this weekend. The Secret Life of Pets 2 led the way with $46.65 million, while Dark Phoenix really struggled with just $32.83 million. Aladdin was arguably the only real bright spot in the top five this weekend. Fortunately, this weekend last year was even worse and 2019 was able to win the year-over-year comparison by a whopping 37%. This allowed 2019 to close the gap between it and 2018 to just $300 million or 5.9% at $4.78 billion to $5.08 billion. That’s still a large gap, but it is far cry from where it once was. More...

Weekend Estimates: Pets Don’t have a Fiery Rebirth with Just $47 million

June 9th, 2019

Neither of the two wide releases matched expectations over the weekend and in both cases, it could be the end of their respective franchises. The Secret Life of Pets 2 is earning first place with $47.11 million, which isn’t a bad result for a family film that cost $80 million to make. However, this estimate is 55% lower than the first film’s opening weekend. Internationally, it is adding $16.0 million over the weekend to its three-week total, which sits at $49.0 million. Additionally, it has yet to open in most international markets, so it should have long legs on this chart. However, it still isn’t living up to the original. Universal has to be looking at this numbers and deciding to move on from the franchise, even though this film will very likely break even sooner rather than later. Even a moderate decline for a hypothetical third film would put profitability in question. More...

Friday Estimates: Dark Day at the Box Office

June 8th, 2019

June might be in trouble, as both of the wide releases stumbled out of the gate missing expectations. The Secret Life of Pets 2 managed first place on Friday, but with just $16.5 million. This is 57% lower than the first film managed during its opening day. Unlike the first film, school was still in session for a lot of the film’s target audience during Friday, so that could help its legs over the weekend. Universal is projecting a $47 million opening weekend, but it might climb to $50 million. Even so, that’s still a serious decline over the first movie. The film did match the original at CinemaScore earning an A minus, so its weaker reviews aren’t going to be much of an issue. Additionally, the movie only cost $80 million to make, so even a $45 million opening won’t prevent the film from breaking even sooner rather than later. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Dark Phoenix Soar Above Pets 2?

June 6th, 2019

It could be a real race on the box office chart this weekend. The Secret Life of Pets 2 isn’t generating as much buzz as I was expecting, while there is actually some good news surrounding Dark Phoenix’s box office chances. There’s no good news regarding its reviews, that’s for sure. Also coming out this weekend is Late Night, but it is now coming out in limited release with a wide expansion next week. That’s not a good sign. This does leave one more spot in the top five for a holdover, meaning Aladdin, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, and Rocketman will all remain in the top five for at least one more weekend. This weekend last year, Ocean’s 8 opened with a decent $41.61 million and both The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix should top that. 2019 should start the month with an easy win. More...

International Box Office: Godzilla Stomps Through Asia, is Quieter Elsewhere

June 5th, 2019

Godzilla: King of the Monsters was more dominant on the international chart with $130 million on 53,515 screens in 75 markets for a worldwide debut of $178 million. Most of this success came in Asia, including in China, where the movie opened in first place with $66.65 million over the weekend for a total opening of $70.41 million. Japan was the next biggest market with a haul of $8.4 million on 600, which was enough for first place in that market. The film also earned first place in Taiwan ($4.2 million on 320 screens); Thailand ($2.3 million on 705 screens); and Malaysia ($2.2 million on 653). The film had to settle for second place in a number of major markets including Mexico ($4.7 million on 2,443 screens); the U.K. ($4.43 million in 531 theaters); and France ($2.5 million on 628 screens). The film has yet to open in Spain and a number of smaller markets, so it isn’t done its international run. That said, it was an expensive movie to make and it will need help on the home market to break even. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Godzilla Tops Weekend Chart and Helps 2019 to Rare Win

June 4th, 2019

Godzilla: King of the Monsters didn’t live up to expectations, but it did well enough to earn first place on the weekend box office chart. King of the Monsters opened with $47.78 million, while Aladdin was right behind with $42.84 million. This helped the overall box office hold on a lot better than expected, down just 4.3% to $174 million, which is a fantastic hold for a post-holiday weekend. The box office was also a huge improvement from this weekend last year, up 63% in the year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $4.54 billion, which is still 7.4% or $380 million behind last year’s pace, but a few more wins like this and that gap won’t seem so bad anymore. That said, as anyone who’s read our monthly preview will know, I’m not expecting too many weekends like this in June. More...

Weekend Estimates: Godzilla Towers Above the Competition

June 2nd, 2019

As expected, Godzilla: King of the Monsters is leading the way on the weekend box office chart. However, it is falling a little short of expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $49.03 million. The film earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is much better than its reviews, but still not stellar, while the genre isn’t known for long legs, so I’m not sure about its future. It is performing a lot better internationally with $130 million on 52,000 screens in 75 markets, including $70 million in China and $8.4 million in Japan. It has nearly matched its $200 million production budget in just one weekend, while it has yet to open in Spain and a few smaller markets. More...

Friday Estimates: Godzilla Tops Competition, but with a Soft Touch

June 1st, 2019

Godzilla: King of the Monsters dominated the chart on Friday with $19.61 million on its opening day. The film needed to open with a couple of million dollars more than $20 million to match our prediction, but it will come close enough. Its reviews are weak and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, which is not great either. It appears the film is aimed at Kaiju fans and might not appeal to all action fans. That said, it is on pace to earn $50 million during its opening weekend, which is enough to be a financial success, assuming it does as well internationally. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Godzilla Floods Skull Island, but isn’t King of the Kaiju - Updated

May 31st, 2019

Godzilla: King of the Monsters opened with $6.3 million in previews, which is almost exactly in the middle of Kong: Skull Island ($3.7 million) and Godzilla ($9.3 million). The film’s reviews have sunk to just 41% positive, which is close to the point where it will start to scare away potential moviegoers. However, I think its CinemaScore will be a lot better. I was hoping for a little more, so perhaps our $56 million prediction was a little too optimistic. That said, I think it will be close. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Godzilla Crush the Critics with a Massive Opening Weekend?

May 30th, 2019

Godzilla: King of the Monsters leads a trio of new releases hoping to make an impact at the box office this weekend. It will have no trouble earning first place and even the low-end of predictions are at $50 million. Rocketman has the best reviews of the week and it could continue the positive trend for musical biopics. Finally there’s MA, a psychological horror that could become a midlevel hit, but even if it fails to live up to expectations, it was inexpensive enough to break even. Meanwhile, Aladdin and John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum will remain in the top five, while Avengers: Endgame could be one of six films earning more than $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, Adrift was the biggest new release opening with just $11.60 million, while Solo: A Star Wars Story was the number one film with $29.40 million. There should be three films that top Solo and as many as six that top Adrift. 2019 should come away with an easy win. More...

2019 Preview: May

May 1st, 2019

April got off to a fast start with Shazam! opening the first weekend of the month. Meanwhile, Avengers: Endgame ended the month with a record-breaking debut. Unfortunately for 2019, last April had a very similar result leaving 2019 behind 2018’s pace by over $400 million. Will May be able to turn things around? Last May, there were only two films that reached $200 million, Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story. Meanwhile, this May there are three such films, Detective Pikachu, Aladdin, and Godzilla: King of the Monsters. There are two points we need to make. Firstly, the only reason there are more potential $200 million hits this year is because May has five Fridays this year. Secondly, this May also has a lot better depth with films like John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum and Rocketman being potential $100 million hits. Even if we ignore the final weekend, May should do well enough to cut into 2018’s lead over 2019. It’s not going to be able to cut it in half, but it could do well enough to make box office analysts a little more positive about the year’s chances overall. More...

Rocketman Trailer

October 1st, 2018

Biographical musical starring Taron Egerton opens May 31 ... Full Movie Details. More...