Home Market Releases for January 29th, 2019

January 30th, 2019

We are still stuck in the dead zone on the home market, as it is too late for summer blockbusters, but too early for the major fall hits. The biggest first-run release of the week is The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, which says a lot. The best is The Wife, which earns our Pick of the Week. However, The Night is Short, Walk on Girl was a close competitor. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

January 28th, 2019

I knew The Nutcracker and the Four Realms was in trouble when Disney didn’t push Christopher Robin over $100 million at the domestic box office. At that point, every film they released in 2018 had hit the century mark, so there was a chance they could have had every film released in a calendar year get to that milestone. They wouldn’t pass up that chance, unless they knew The Nutcracker and the Four Realms wasn’t going to get there. It didn’t get there. It barely managed to get halfway to $100 million. Is the film as bad as its box office numbers? Or was it unfairly ignored? More...

International Box Office: Venom Sinks its Teeth into China

November 14th, 2018

Venom roared into first place with $117.30 million on 44,833 screens in 85 markets for totals of $467.71 million internationally and $674.01 million worldwide. Nearly all of the film’s weekend haul came from China, where it made $107.85 million in 40,000 theaters over the weekend for a total opening of $110.40 million. Whoever made the decision to recut the movie to a PG-13 rating feels like a genius after this result. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Grinch Matches Expectations, Incredibles’ Record Safe for Now

November 12th, 2018

The weekend box office had a few success stories and a couple of misses. Dr Seuss’ The Grinch was one of the success stories with $67.57 million, which matches predictions perfectly. The other two new wide releases were less successful. Overlord did okay, but it will need a lot of help to break even any time soon. On the other hand, The Girl in the Spider’s Web likely won’t break even. The overall box office rose 15% from last weekend hitting $167 million. This is 11% more from the same weekend last year. I really wasn’t expecting 2018’s losing streak to end after just one weekend. This is great news. 2018’s lead over 2017 is practically the same as it was last weekend at $1.01 billion or 11% at $9.95 billion to $8.94 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Grinch Grabs First Place, Bohemian Sings a Long Note

November 11th, 2018

The Weekend box office is on par with expectations, for the most part. Dr Seuss’ The Grinch is dominating the box office chart with an estimated $66.0 million debut. This isn’t the record for biggest November weekend for an animated film, but it is reasonably close. Its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore suggest reasonably long legs at the box office. In fact, with the holidays coming up, it has an outside chance at $200 million. Internationally, its start is a little more muted at $12.7 million in 23 markets, including $6.53 in 559 theaters in the U.K. That’s equivalent to a $35 million opening here, given the relative size of the two markets. More...

Friday Estimates: Grinch Steals Top Spot, but Doesn’t have Incredible Start

November 10th, 2018

Dr Seuss’ The Grinch debuted in first place on Friday with $18.67 million. This is not quite as good as we were originally expecting, but better than its previews would indicate. This is good news for the film’s long term chances. Its reviews having fallen below the overall positive level. It did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, which is good for a family film, but not great. Universal expects the film to earn $67 million over the weekend, which is close enough to our $68 million prediction to be a success. It is also very close to its $75 million production budget. More...

Weekend Prediction: Will Grinch Spread the Holiday Cheer?

November 8th, 2018

Dr Seuss’ The Grinch could be the biggest hit of the month, if it gets off to a fast start this weekend. There is some good news, as it could break The Incredibles’ record for November weekend for an animated film. This weekend, The Girl in the Spider’s Web and Overlord are both aiming to become midlevel hits. I’m not sure either will get there. Their buzz hasn’t grown as their release date has neared, which is troubling. This does mean Bohemian Rhapsody will very likely earn a solid second place, while The Nutcracker and the Four Realms has a shot at third. This weekend last year, Thor: Ragnarok earned more than $57 million during its second weekend of release, while the combined openings of Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express were even better. 2018 should be better on top, but it won’t have the same depth leading to a loss in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Rhapsody Gets the Whole World Singing

November 7th, 2018

Bohemian Rhapsody rose to first place with $72.5 million in 64 markets for an early international total of $91.7 million. This week it opened in first place in both Mexico ($5.33 million) and Australia ($4.87 million). On the other hand, it only earned second place during its debut in South Korea with $4.40 million on 936 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.65 million. The film only fell 40% during its second weekend in the U.K. earning $7.56 million in 681 theaters for a two-week total of $26.88 million. More...

Weekend Estimates: Bohemian has a Bourgeoisie Debut with $50 million

November 4th, 2018

Fox is projecting a $50 million opening for Bohemian Rhapsody over the weekend. When I see a studio estimate a number like that, I always assume they overestimated, and not just because it topped predictions, because a “$50 million opening weekend” sounds a lot better than a “$49 million opening weekend” and getting that one day of extra hype could help its box office chances. It would require a 2.71 internal multiplier to get there, which would be a little high for a film like this. Its reviews are good, but not great, while audience scores are better at 4.5 out of 5 from PostTrak and an A from CinemaScore. More...

Friday Estimates: Bohemian Rhapsody makes the Box Office Sing

November 3rd, 2018

Bohemian Rhapsody dominated the Friday box office chart with $18.4 million. This is better than our prediction, but not quite as good as some were expecting after Thursday’s previews. Its reviews are good, but not great, while it earned an A from CinemaScore and a 4.5 out of 5 from PostTrak, so audiences clearly like the film more than critics did. The film could come close to $50 million over the weekend, but it probably won’t quite get there. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Queen has Star-Making Debut with $3.9 million

November 2nd, 2018

Bohemian Rhapsody started its domestic run with $3.9 million in previews, which is in line with our prediction, for the most part. Compared to A Star is Born, it is better or worse, depending on how you look at things. A Star is Born had three days of previews earning $4.5 million in total, but if you only look at Thursday night, its previews were $3.2 million. Had the film only had one day of previews, it would have earned somewhere in-between those two results. Additionally, Bohemian Rhapsody’s reviews are weaker than A Star is Born’s reviews are and its target demographic is more likely to rush out opening night, so its legs won’t be as long. That said, it has an excellent chance at earning more than our $36 million prediction over the full weekend. More...

Weekend Prediction: Queen Biopic Looks to Start the Holiday Season Rocking

November 1st, 2018

November is the start of the holiday blockbuster season and practically every week from now until after Christmas is an excellent weekend to release a film. (The weekend after Thanksgiving is the only real exception.) This year, things don’t get off to a tremendously fast start, as there are no monster hits. That said, Bohemian Rhapsody could be a $100 million hit domestically. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms has to deal with terrible reviews and a lot of direct competition from bigger family films coming out this month. Finally, Nobody’s Fool is the first Tyler Perry movie not released by Lionsgate. It is not being heavily advertised as a Tyler Perry movie either. This weekend last year, Thor: Ragnarok opened with $122 million. No film opening this year will match that. All three films combined won’t match that. 2018's winning streak will end. More...

2018 Preview: November

November 1st, 2018

October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office. More...

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms Trailer

September 5th, 2018

Adventure starring Mackenzie Foy opens November 2 ... Full Movie Details. More...