January 5th, 2018
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The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) It is a strange year for the PGAs, as there was a tie resulting in 11 films being nominated for the top prize.
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December 11th, 2017
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. Sort of. (WGA announced the nominations for TV, radio, etc., but not their theatrical nods.) It is still very early in the year, so it is hard to say if there are any real snubs, or if there are any real favorites. The Shape of Water led the way with seven nominations, while The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were right behind with six a piece.
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June 12th, 2017
It’s a good week, but a shallow weak. The biggest release of the week is The Lego Batman Movie, which is also one of the best. There are a couple of other big releases that are must haves, like Dark Matter: Season Two, but the size and quality quickly drop-off after that. As for the Pick of the Week, the John Wick: Chapter Two Blu-ray Combo Pack claims that title.
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May 16th, 2017
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It is another terrible week on the home market. There are three first-run releases coming out this week, which isn’t a bad number. However, all three earned terrible reviews and bombed in theaters, so you should avoid all of them. There’s not a lot of limited releases, classics, or TV on DVD releases to make up the gap, so for the second week in a row, we have a Video on Demand release topping the list of best new releases. This week it is Logan, which is one of the best wide releases of the year. I would wait for the Blu-ray, on the other hand.
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March 31st, 2017
Ghost in the Shell led the way on Thursday night with $1.8 million in advance earnings. This was better than the $1.2 million The Boss Baby managed, and on par with what Get Out’s $1.8 million earlier this year. However, Get Out had legs that most movies would kill for, so it is not a good predictor. John Wick: Chapter Two, which started out with $2.2 million on Thursday night, is arguably a much better comparison. Granted, John Wick earned much better reviews, but it was also a sequel and those tend to be a lot more front-loaded. Using this film as a guide gives Ghost in the Shell a $25 million opening weekend, which is well below our prediction. This isn’t a disaster, but it is a weak start for a film that cost $110 million to make.
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March 30th, 2017
Two new wide releases attempt to dethrone Beauty and the Beast this weekend, but I wouldn’t bet on either of them doing it. Earlier this week, it looked like Ghost in the Shell was a potential $100 million hit. Then its reviews collapsed. The Boss Baby, on the other hand, started with terrible reviews, but its buzz is growing despite this. This weekend last year, the best new release was God’s Not Dead 2, which opened with $7.6 million, and 2017 is in an excellent position to gain ground as a result. Granted, the top film that weekend was Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice with over $50 million and no film this week will match that, but the top three films last year earned just over $80 million, while the top three films this year should earn more than $100 million.
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March 14th, 2017
Kong: Skull Island dominated the box office earning $61.03 million over the weekend. This is much better than predicted and this if reports are true, this is because it was a huge hit with families. Skull Island’s success hurt Logan, which fell to second place with $38.11 million over the weekend. Overall, the box office fell 13% from last weekend, but that’s still 22% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date is even more impressive. Back-to-back wins for 2017 has cut 2016’s lead to 0.8% at just $17 million. If Beauty and the Beast does as well as some expect it to do, 2017 could take the lead by the end of this coming weekend.
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March 9th, 2017
There’s only one new release this week, Kong: Skull Island, which should earn first place on the box office chart. Probably. Logan isn’t too far back as far as box office tracking and might repeat in first place. In order to do this, Logan would either have to hold on a lot better than most comic book movies do and / or Kong would have to miss expectations. This weekend last year, there were four wide releases; however, they only managed a little more than $35 million combined. Kong: Skull Island should top that with ease and that’s good news for 2017. Unfortunately, Zootopia earned more than $50 million and that will likely be out of reach for Kong, so 2017 will need to rely on its depth to win in the year-over-year competition. I’m optimistic that will happen.
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March 7th, 2017
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The weekend belonged to Logan, as it opened with $88.41 million and easily earned first place. Second place went to Get Out, which held on far better than anticipated, while The Shack is on pace to become a midlevel hit. There was almost nothing but good news. Almost. Overall, the box office rose 53% from last weekend, earning $189 million. More importantly, the it was 16% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016; however, that gap was nearly cut in half from its peak just a couple of weeks ago. 2017 is now behind by 2.7% at $1.92 billion to $1.97 billion. If 2017 can put together a few more weeks like this, then it could climb into the lead before April begins. That is a big “if” and I would be satisfied with cutting the gap in half by the end of the month.
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March 2nd, 2017
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The first weekend of March has three wide releases, but the one everyone is talking about is Logan. It should become the biggest hit of the year so far. The other two releases are The Shack, a faith-based film, and Before I Fall, which is essentially Groundhog Day set in high school. Neither film is expected to compete for top spot. In fact, it would be a surprise if both landed in the top five. As far as holdovers are concerned, only Get Out has a shot at $20 million, while only The Lego Batman Movie will earn more than $10 million. This weekend last year, Zootopia led the way with just over $75 million, while the other two new releases earned less than $30 million combined. 2017 will be bigger on top, won’t have as strong new releases overall, but should have about the same depth.
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February 28th, 2017
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Get Out beat expectations on the weekend box office chart earning first place with $33.38 million. Not only did it beat expectations, but it also had better than expected legs over the weekend and that bodes well for its long term success. Neither of the other two wide releases, Collide and Rock Dog, earned a spot in the top ten. Both will disappear from theaters A.S.A.P. Overall, the box office fell 17% from last weekend to $123 million. It is, however, 9.9% higher than the same weekend last year. Meanwhile, 2017 remains $100 million behind last year’s pace at $1.69 billion to $1.79 billion. 2017 made gains over the weekend, but The Lego Batman Movie was the number one movie during the midweek and having a kids movie on top hurts the weekday box office numbers.
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February 25th, 2017
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As expected, Get Out earned first place on the Friday box office chart with $10.8 million. This a little higher than originally predicted, but not quite up to the heights that seemed possible after Thursday’s $1.8 million in previews. The film’s Tomatometer Score remains 100% positive, although I did see that Armond White gave the film a negative review. I didn’t realize he still wrote reviews. His reputation is so bad that a negative review from him is something to cherish. Furthermore, it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is stunning for a horror film. Even a B plus is great for a horror film. Look for $28 million over the weekend and an easy first place finish.
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February 23rd, 2017
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There are three films opening wide this weekend, which is a surprise. The buzz for Collide and Rock Dog are so quiet that I’m surprised they are playing in more than 2,000 theaters and I will be equally surprised if they open above the Mendoza Line by averaging more than $2,000 per theater. On the other hand, Get Out has nearly 100 reviews and its Tomatometer Score is 100% positive. It could be a surprise smash hit. Then again... It could be another Keanu. If that happens, The Lego Batman Movie will earn its third first-place finish in a row. That’s would be bad news for the overall box office. This weekend last year there were a similar selection of new releases. Gods of Egypt struggled while the other two new releases bombed, and only Deadpool saved the box office. If Get Out matches Deadpool’s total weekend of $31 million this time last year, I will be so happy. I don’t think it will happen, but it could be close.
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February 23rd, 2017
Fifty Shades Darker remained in first place on the international chart with $44.5 million on 9,600 screens in 59 markets for totals of $187.2 million internationally and $276.2 million worldwide. The film had no major openings this past weekend, and won’t until it opens in Japan in June. The film’s best market over the weekend was Germany, where it earned $6.1 million on 736 screens for a total of $21.2 million after two weeks of release.
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February 22nd, 2017
As expected, The Lego Batman Movie easily won the weekend box office race with $32.66 million over the weekend and $42.74 million including Monday. The biggest new release of the week was The Great Wall, which earned $18.47 million / $21.51 million during its opening weekend. Overall, the box office slumped by 21% from last weekend at $145 million. This is still 4.5% higher than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, due to the misalignment in holidays, 2017 still lost ground over the full week. In fact, it is now a full $100 million behind 2016’s pace at $1.53 billion to $1.63 million. It is still too early to really tell where 2017 will end up, but we could really use some big wins right about now.
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February 19th, 2017
The Lego Batman Movie will secure another weekend at the top of the box office chart thanks to a modest 35% drop from its opening, and soft openings for all the new wide releases. The animated adventure will make $34.2 million over three days, and is expected to earn about $45 million when the President’s Day holiday numbers are added in. It will pass $100 million at the domestic box office tomorrow.
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February 18th, 2017
It is a disappointing weekend for new releases, as only The Great Wall managed to match low expectations. This left The Lego Batman Movie cruising to first place on Friday with $7.6 million. It is on pace for $42 million over the four-day weekend and will crack $100 million sometime on Monday, which matches our predictions almost perfectly. If the film can make $150 million domestically and $200 million internationally, then it will break even before it reaches the home market.
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February 16th, 2017
There are three wide releases coming out this week, but none of them are expected to challenge for top spot. Although, there could be an interesting race between the two biggest releases, Fist Fight and The Great Wall. Sadly, this is because both have seen their box office potential fall over the past week. A Cure for Wellness never really had much box office potential. This will leave The Lego Batman Movie with an easy win over the Presidents’ Day long weekend, while we should have five films earning more than $10 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. This weekend last year, there were also three wide releases that struggled at the box office leaving Deadpool with an easy win. The Lego Batman Movie won’t match Deadpool at the top, but 2017 has much better depth, so that should help keep the year-over-year race close.
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February 16th, 2017
Fifty Shades Darker earned first place on the international chart during it opening weekend, pulling in $97.78 million on 9,726 screens in 57 markets. This is the biggest international weekend of the year so far, so that’s reason for the studio to celebrate. The film’s biggest market was Germany, where it made $10.5 million, while the U.K. and Ireland were close behind with $9.4 million. The film cracked $5 million in France ($8.3 million); Brazil ($7.3 million); Italy ($6.9 million); Russian ($6.5 million); Australia ($5.8 million); and Spain ($5 million). The film has yet to open in Japan, but that’s the only major market left. By the end of the first weekend of release, the film had made enough worldwide to cover its entire production budget. By the end of the second, it will likely come completely in the black. By the time it makes its initial push into the home market, it will likely have paid for the production budget of Fifty Shades Freed as well.
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February 16th, 2017
The winners of our Batprizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Lego Batman Movie’s opening weekend were...
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February 15th, 2017
Kedi became the first movie released in 2017 to hit the $40,000 mark on the per theater chart earning $40,103 in its lone theater. A United Kingdom was next with an average of $16,628 in four theaters. This is enough to suggest it will expand, but not enough to think it will earn a significant measure of mainstream success. The only other two films in the $10,000 club were the top two films on the overall weekend chart. The Lego Batman Movie earned an average of $12,966, putting it just ahead of Fifty Shades Darker, which earned an average of $12,563.
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February 14th, 2017
As expected, it was a big weekend at the box office with three massive hits. The Lego Batman Movie did earn first place, but not with as much as predicted at just $53.00 million. Fifty Shades Darker wasn’t that far behind with $46.61 million. Meanwhile, John Wick: Chapter Two just cracked $30 million, which is one of the ten best third place openings of all time. Week-over-week, the box office nearly doubled growing 90% from last weekend. Sadly, it was down 22% from last year. Granted, Valentine’s Day landed on a Sunday last year, so that boosted the weekend box office and 2017 should make some of that decline back on Tuesday. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $1.28 billion, putting it $40 million or 3.0% behind 2016’s pace. It is still way too soon to tell how 2017 will finish in the end, but hopefully things will turn around soon.
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February 12th, 2017
A slighty-worse-than-expected performance from The Lego Batman Movie and a slightly-better-than-expected weekend for Fifty Shades Darker is creating a close race at the top of the box office chart this weekend. Lego Batman will win in the end, with Warner Bros. projecting $55.6 million for the weekend, but Fifty Shades Darker won on Friday, and won’t be far behind in the end. Universal pegs the film at $46.8 million over three days.
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February 11th, 2017
Fifty Shades Darker led the way on Friday with $21.5 million. Earning first place is both expected and a little troubling, but more on the latter below. The film’s legs will be shorter over the weekend than its predecessor’s were, because it doesn’t have Valentine’s Day to boost its Saturday numbers. However, despite earning much worse reviews than the original film, its CinemaScore is a B plus, up from the C plus that the original managed. This could help its overall legs. Look for $48 million over the weekend and a total of over $100 million.
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February 10th, 2017
Fifty Shades Darker dominated the Thursday previews earning $5.72 million. This is more than the other two new releases earned combined. On the other hand, it is significantly less than the $8.6 million the original made two years ago. Additionally, its reviews are significantly weaker than its predecessors’ reviews were. This will lead to shorter legs and an opening that is closer to $40 million than $50 million.
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February 9th, 2017
This should be the biggest weekend of the month with three potential hits, all of which are sequels. Of the three, The Lego Batman Movie is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the weekend. In fact, it is widely expected to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Fifty Shades Darker could be one of those rare sequels that earns less in total than the original made during its opening weekend. However, I’m not that pessimistic. On the other hand, John Wick: Chapter Two should open significantly better than its predecessor opened with, but it is still aiming to become a midlevel hit, nothing more. This weekend last year, Deadpool opened with $132 million. That could be more than the top two films open with this weekend. Even though 2017 does have better depth, I think it will lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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February 8th, 2017
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The winners of our Put a Ring On It contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Rings’s opening weekend were...
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February 2nd, 2017
Before we get to the contest, I miss the goofy bat-gadgets the movies used to have. Bat Shark Repellent might be my favorite. Next weekend is Valentine’s Day and Presidents’ Day and there are three wide releases hoping to make the most of the long weekend. However, it’s clear that The Lego Batman Movie will come out on top and it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Lego Batman Movie.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Note: It is a not long weekend next weekend, as President's Day isn't until the 20th. In my defense, I'm Canadian, so I don't pay attention to these things.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2017
January turned out to be a good month. Granted, it didn’t live up to last January, but its box office was one of the top five Januarys of all time, so that’s still a good start to the year. Also, we will have our first $100 million movie released in 2017 and that doesn’t happen this early very often. As for February, there’s potentially the first $200 million hit of the year, The Lego Batman Movie. Fifty Shades Darker and The Great Wall both have a shot at $100 million. That said, it is more likely that both will miss that milestone than both will get there. As for the rest of the films, there are a few that are aiming for solid midlevel hits, like John Wick: Chapter Two and Get Out, while there are very few potential bombs. By comparison, last February there was one monster hit, Deadpool, and a lot of bombs. No other movie besides Deadpool made $50 million. No movie opening this month will match Deadpool, but we won’t have as many bombs either, so hopefully that will balance out and 2017 won’t fall further behind 2016.
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