December 29th, 2023
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Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom topped the chart last weekend, and The Color Purple had the second-best opening Christmas Day ever, but our model thinks Wonka will enter the New Year as champion at the box office, based on the performance of all films since Christmas Day.
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December 15th, 2023
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Wonka will land with a solid opening, likely somewhere between $30 million and $40 million, this weekend, based on our model’s forecast and a decent $3.5 million in preview earnings on Thursday. That will be easily the best weekend ever for a live action musical not based on an existing show, beating the $15.5 million earned by The Greatest Showman over its second weekend back in December, 2017. The best weekend for any live-action musical is $42.0 million, earned by High School Musical 3: Senior Year back in 2008. We don’t have enough data yet to be sure that record won’t be broken, but it would require very good legs through the weekend.
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April 10th, 2018
The last box office hit of 2017, The Greatest Showman, hits the home market this week. There are also a couple of Awards Season contenders, but for the most part, it is another slow week. Phantom Thread on Blu-ray is the clear Pick of the Week winner. Meanwhile, Molly’s Game on Blu-ray Combo Pack is the only real competition.
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March 20th, 2018
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It is a slow week with less than a dozen releases in the main section, and that includes two late reviews. There’s no more than that for the secondary Blu-ray releases. That said, a high percentage of these are worth picking up with many Pick of the Week contenders. For example, the biggest release of the week, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, is one of the best, as is one of the smallest releases, Miss Kiet’s Children. However, in the end, I went with Coco, which technically came out a couple of weeks ago, but the screener arrived late and it really deserves the title of Pick of the Week.
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March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning.
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February 18th, 2018
Black Panther is riding a waving of positive feedback all the way to record territory this weekend, with Disney projecting a $192 million three-day, and $218 million four-day weekend, as of Sunday morning. That gives the film three outright records right off the bat: biggest weekend in February, biggest three-day Presidents Day weekend, and biggest four-day Presidents Day weekend. In each case, the film is topping the jaw-dropping-at-the-time opening of Deadpool in 2016.
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February 14th, 2018
Fifty Shades Freed made its international debut in 57 markets, earning first place in 54 of them. Overall, it earned $96.5 million internationally for a worldwide debut of $135.2 million. The film’s biggest market was Germany, where it earned $10.36 million on 731 screens. It earned similar openings in France ($8.90 million on 700 screens) and the U.K. ($8.22 million in 603 theaters). Add in more first place openings in Italy ($7.29 million on 517 screens); Russia ($6.99 million on 1,430); and Brazil ($6.26 million on 650), and the film was much stronger internationally than domestically. The studio’s share of the worldwide box office is already $60 million, which is more than the film cost to make. Assuming the film gets to $300 million worldwide, which is almost guaranteed at this point, the film will make a healthy profit before it reaches the home market.
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February 13th, 2018
Fifty Shades Freed topped our prediction by a tiny margin earning first place over the weekend with $38.56 million. Peter Rabbit also beat expectations with $25.01 million. Then there’s The 15:17 to Paris. Overall, the box office rocketed up 49% from last weekend to $140 million. Unfortunately, this wasn’t enough to compete with this weekend last year, as 2018 was 26% lower. That sounds devastating, but remember, there is a misalignment in holidays, so next weekend 2018 will bounce back. Likewise, because of the misalignment in holidays, the year-to-date comparison isn’t particularly useful. 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by 5.0% or $65 million at $1.22 billion to $1.28 billion. However, by this time next week, that entire deficit could be erased.
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February 11th, 2018
Fifty Shades Freed caps the Shades franchise this weekend with a solid $38.805 million debut, according to Universal’s weekend estimate. That’s down from Fifty Shades Darker’s $46.6 million opening, but nowhere near the drop between the first and second movies—Fifty Shades of Grey came out the gate with $85 million back in 2015, although it was helped by Valentine’s Day falling on Saturday.
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February 8th, 2018
As the weekend approaches, there’s only one film that everyone is talking about: Black Panther. The film’s reviews are nearly 100% positive and Fandango announced its presales are the best for any pre-summer release. Unfortunately, it doesn’t open until next weekend. This week we have to settle for Fifty Shades Freed, Peter Rabbit, and The 15:17 to Paris. Fifty Shades Freed is widely expected to be the biggest hit released in 2018, at least so far. On the other hand, its reviews and the Fangirl Effect strongly suggest very short legs. Peter Rabbit is a family film and even though it has direct competition next weekend, it should have the best legs on this week’s list. Finally there’s The 15:17 to Paris, which is not living up to expectations with critics and this will likely hurt its box office chances. This weekend last year was Presidents Day long Weekend. 2018 is going to get absolutely destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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February 7th, 2018
Maze Runner: The Death Cure remained in first place with $35.5 million in 80 markets for totals of $143.2 million internationally and $183.2 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was Mexico, where it earned first place with $3.20 million. Its best market overall was China, where it added $5.17 million over the weekend to its running tally, which now sits at $38.67 million.
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February 6th, 2018
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle earned first place for the fourth time over the weekend with $10.93 million, while Maze Runner: The Death Cure was a close second with $10.47 million. This left Winchester in third place with $9.31 million, but it could have been much worse. Overall, the weekend fell 33% from last weekend with $95 million. More importantly, is 3.6% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018 lost its small lead over 2017 before the weekend and it is now 0.8% or $8 million below last year’s pace at $1.04 billion to $1.05 billion. It’s going to get a lot worse next weekend, due to the misalignment in holidays, but I think 2018 will quickly recover after that.
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February 4th, 2018
In spite of a decent opening, Winchester is proving to be no match for Jumanji this weekend. The holiday holdover returns to top spot on the chart in its seventh weekend with $11 million, down 32% from last time out. That makes it four weekends at the top of the chart for Jumanji, after opening in second place back on December 20. One needs to go back the best part of 30 years to find a film that matches that performance.
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February 1st, 2018
It’s Super Bowl weekend and the only film attempting to compete with the sporting event is Winchester. Unfortunately, its nearly noon on Thursday and there are still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. This means Maze Runner: The Death Cure and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will be in a race for first place over the weekend, while Winchester will have to settle for third place. This weekend last year, Rings was the biggest new release of the week. It wasn’t a hit, but it was bigger than any film this week will be, preventing 2018 from winning the year-over-year competition.
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February 1st, 2018
The Greatest Showman’s box office life has almost mirrored that of a cliché Broadway musical. Before release, no one believed in its dreams: an $84 million circus musical starring Hugh Jackman and Zac Efron that was mocked by the bullies on film Twitter. It even had its darkest moment when it debuted at #4 with just $8.8 million, a definite sign of a total bomb. But then the rallying moment, as the film defied the odds and just kind of stuck around at #4 (and, on one weekend, #5) for 5 weeks straight, each weekend making more than its opening. Now the film’s soundtrack has reached #1 on the Billboard Top 100 albums, #1 on iTunes, and has over 200 million plays on Spotify. Two of the songs (“This is Me” and “Rewrite the Stars”) have been listened to over 50 million times each on Spotify (in comparison, the Spanish version of “Remember Me” from Coco has been listened to 12 million times). The film has earned a Golden Globe for Best Song and an Academy Award nomination for the same song. And, of course, it has shockingly earned over $100 million domestically. It currently stands at $128.2 million, which makes it the 15th-highest-grossing musical of all time, and it will climb higher on that list.
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January 30th, 2018
Maze Runner: The Death Cure beat expectations by a little bit with $24.17 million. In fact, every film in the top five this this weekend, except one, topped expectations, including the other new release, Hostiles. This helped the overall box office rise 2.6% from last week. It did fall 0.8% from last year, but 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by $18 million or 2.1% at $908 million to $890 million.
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January 28th, 2018
The delayed final film in the Maze Runner trilogy, The Death Cure, will open with $23.5 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning estimate. With another $82 million overseas so far, the film will have earned a little over $100 million by the end of the weekend, and its early international pace looks a little better than The Scorch Trials, which amassed $78 million over its first two weekends back in 2015. (Scorch Trials had a more staggered release, making a direct comparison difficult.)
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January 25th, 2018
Maze Runner: The Death Cure, is the final installment of the Maze Runner trilogy and is the only wide release of the week. It is guaranteed first place, unless something horrible happens, but there’s almost no chance it will live up to the other two installments. Hostiles is expanding wide, but I don’t have a lot of faith in the film’s box office chances. It is almost the exact wrong time to expand. This weekend last year, Split had a surprisingly good hold earning $25 million, while four other films earned more than $10 million at the box office. That’s not going to happen this year, so 2018 will lose in the year-over-year comparison. It shouldn’t be a complete blowout, on the other hand.
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January 23rd, 2018
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations.
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January 23rd, 2018
Nearly every film we talked about in our predictions beat expectations over the weekend. This includes Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which earned first place with $19.51 million. All three wide releases did better than expected, with 12 Strong leading the way with $15.82 million. The overall box office still fell 15% from last weekend to $135 million. A 15% drop-off for a post-holiday weekend isn’t bad. Compared to this weekend last year, 2018 was down by 7.0%, which isn’t good, but it could have been much worse. Year-to-date, 2018 still has a small lead of 2.9% or $20 million at $725 million to $704 million. Granted, it is still way too early for this to matter, but an early lead means you won’t need to fight back late in the year like we did last year.
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January 21st, 2018
Jumanji will win at the box office for a third straight weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Its weekend total of about $20.04 million is down just 29% from its MLK Holiday numbers, in spite of losing over 100 theaters (its theater average is off just 26%). With $317 million to date, it is now Sony’s most successful non-Spider-Man movie at the domestic box office, not accounting for ticket price inflation. Inflation-adjusted, it’s at number 8 for the studio, and should end up their fifth-best ticket seller ever.
Jumanji’s strength is far from the only good news this weekend.
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January 18th, 2018
The post-holiday weekend is rarely a good week to release a movie and none of the three new releases are expected to be box office successes. 12 Strong is the biggest release and it is also earning the best reviews, although its Tomatometer Score is just 50% positive. Den of Thieves isn’t opening as wide, while its reviews are not as good. It also shares its target audience with 12 Strong, which will hurt its box office chances even more. Finally there’s Forever My Girl, which is barely opening semi-wide and will likely miss the top ten. This weekend last year, Split had a shockingly big opening. In fact, the second place film, xXx: Return of Xander Cage, opened with just over $20 million, which is more than any film is expected to earn this weekend. 2018’s mini-winning streak is about to come to a painful end.
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January 16th, 2018
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle continues to surprise analysts earning $35.18 million over the MLK long weekend. At this point, I would be shocked if it didn’t finish with $350 million domestically, while I assume Sony has a planned trilogy in the works. The best “new” release of the week was The Post, which expanded into second place with $23.06 million, while the best truly new release of the week was The Commuter at $15.80 million. Overall, the box office fell 4.7% from last weekend, earning $165 million over the the three-day weekend. This was still 5.9% higher than the same weekend last year, and that’s the more important number. It is still very early in the year, extremely early, but 2018 does have a $27 million / 5.1% lead over 2017 at $553 million to $526 million. 2018 could lose that entire lead next weekend, but I chose to focus on the positive for now.
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January 14th, 2018
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will come out an easy winner at the box office this MLK weekend. Over three days, the family adventure is headed for an estimated $27 million, for $283 million to date. With another $8 million or so on Monday, the film will finish the holiday on the threshold of $300 million domestically. Partly helped by the long weekend, it will record the 10th-best fourth weekend of all time—remarkable strength for a movie that ran the risk of being over-shadowed by The Last Jedi when it came out at Christmas.
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January 10th, 2018
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Ex Files 3: Return of the Exes roared into first place with $86.96 million over the weekend for a 13-day total of $200.43 million. Its weekend total was double last weekend’s haul, while every other holdover at the top of the Chinese chart fell by more than 50%.
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January 9th, 2018
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle held on strongly during the first weekend of 2018 earning $37.23 million. Insidious: The Last Key opened with $29.58 million, earning a solid second place. Overall, the box office pulled in $165 million, which is 15% lower than last weekend; however, last weekend was a holiday weekend, so this is a better than expected hold. More importantly, this is 21% better than the same weekend last year. 2018 has a small lead over 2017 at 7.1% to $306 million to $285 million. It has been a while since we’ve seen a lead in the year-over-year comparison, but obviously it is far too early for this lead to be meaningful.
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January 7th, 2018
The Golden Globes winners were announced on Sunday and there were a few surprises worth talking about, starting at the top. I was not expecting Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to be the big winner of the night, but it was with four wins. Only two other movies, The Shape of Water and Lady Bird, won more than one award during the night.
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January 4th, 2018
It is the first weekend of 2018 and Insidious: The Last Key is the only true wide release, although Molly’s Game is expanding semi-wide. The Last Key isn’t expected to compete with Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle or Star Wars: The Last Jedi for first place, but if it can open with more than $15 million, it should at least help the year get off to a good start. This weekend last year, Underworld: Blood Wars opened in fourth place, while Hidden Figures expanded into first place. Both Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Star Wars: The Last Jedi should top Hidden Figures and while 2018 won’t have the same depth, it should still earn a victory in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 3rd, 2018
We’ve been tracking Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s international numbers on a daily basis, since it debuted, so talking about the weekend numbers would actually be behind our most recent report. Just a quick recap: The film earned $68.0 million in 54 markets for totals of $523.3 million internationally and $1.040 billion worldwide. The film is on pace for $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion worldwide, including China, where it opens on Friday.
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January 2nd, 2018
It was a really close weekend with Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both earning around $67 million during the four-day weekend. In fact, Jumanji beat The Last Jedi on New Year’s Day. Overall, the box office grew 11% from last weekend to $194 million, which was 4.3% more than the same weekend last year. It’s going to take a bit before we have the final numbers for all studios to compare how 2017 did compared to 2016, but it is safe to say 2016 will come out on top.
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December 30th, 2017
The last year to have Christmas and New Years Days on a Monday was 2006. Using that year as a guide and adjusting for changes in the market, specifically how much more front-loaded films tend to be, I was expecting a slight improvement for Star Wars: The Last Jedi from Thursday to Friday. That didn’t happen. In reality, the film lost 2.2% of its daily box office to hit $19.06 million on Friday. Granted, the film already has $483.76 million domestically and will likely hit first place for the year by the end of business today, surpassing Beauty and the Beast. Even with a slightly reduced weekend estimate of $54 million / $70 million, it is on pace for $600 million domestically with relative ease, making it a shoo-in for the sixth-highest-grossing domestic film of all time.
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December 28th, 2017
As per usual, the weekend after Christmas has no new wide releases. This means there will be almost no changes in the top five from last weekend, meaning Star Wars: The Last Jedi will win with ease, while Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will be in a comfortable second place. This weekend last year, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Sing were neck-and-neck with just over $90 million combined. The Last Jedi and Jumanji should top that, giving 2017 one last win in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 26th, 2017
We still don’t have final numbers for the weekend or Christmas day, and because of the holidays, we likely won’t get them until January 2nd. This means were are stuck with weekend estimates for Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and other films and no information for Monday. Star Wars: The Last Jedi outperformed estimates with $71.57 million for a four-day total of $99.03 million. Its 11-day total is $395.63 million and it will take just 12 days to get to $400 million. That’s not the record, but it is the third best result and that's still very impressive.
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December 24th, 2017
It’s a very crowded weekend, to say the least, in theaters, with five new wide releases already playing, and another joining the fray tomorrow. The Last Jedi is unperturbed by the competition, and will come out an easy winner, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Its $68.486 million projected 3-day gross takes it to $365 million after 10 days in release. Among its new records this weekend, it became the 3rd-fastest film to earn $350 million at the domestic box office, and will have the 3rd-best Christmas weekend. All this is in spite of the fact that takings are expected to be down significantly today as everyone prepares for, or starts celebrating, the holiday.
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December 23rd, 2017
This weekend complicated, as Christmas Eve lands on a Sunday and Christmas Day technically makes it a four-day weekend. Although with so many schools closed for the holidays, you could almost call it a eleven-day weekend. This makes interpreting Friday’s box office numbers more difficult than usual. Star Wars: The Last Jedi earned $24.68 million on Friday, putting its running tally to $321.28 million. It tied Jurassic World for second-fastest to $300 million at just 8 days. On the other hand, this is a little bit lower than our predictions. It still has a real shot at over $100 million during the four-day weekend, but it could have to wait until Tuesday to get to $400 million.
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December 22nd, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi bounced back 5% from Wednesday, earning $17.8 million on Thursday for a week-long total of $296.5 million. It is impossible to compare the film to The Force Awakens, as the seventh day in that film’s run was Christmas Eve and it fell 28% as a result. Rogue One grew a lot more, up 12% to $16.7 million. I was expecting the film to bounce back more than this. That said, it is already in seventh place on the 2017 domestic chart and will be in fourth place by the end of the weekend. Add in Christmas and it will be at over $500 million by the end of the year.
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December 21st, 2017
This is technically Christmas Weekend, so it should come as no surprised that there are a lot of movies vying for that lucrative Christmas family audience. Two of them, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman, opened yesterday, and we’ve already talked about how well they did on their opening day. On Friday, they will be joined by Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing, and Father Figures, none of which are earning good reviews and only one of which is expected to be a box office hit. This should leave Star Wars: The Last Jedi on top of the chart with room to spare. This weekend last year, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominated the box office, while Sing was the only release that was a major hit.
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December 21st, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi had to deal with competition for the first time in its run, as both Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman debuted in theaters on Wednesday. It didn’t have much of an effect. The Last Jedi earned $16.9 million yesterday for a six-day total of $278.8 million domestically. This was only the 32nd-biggest Wednesday ever, although 12th-biggest for a film not opening on that day. The film fell 17% from Tuesday, compared to a 2% gain by The Force Awakens and a 15% drop by Rogue One. It overtook Despicable Me 3 for seventh place on the 2017 domestic chart and it is eyeing Thor: Ragnarok for sixth place. It won’t get there tomorrow. It will certainly get there sometime on Friday.
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December 20th, 2017
Five films are opening wide this week, two of which, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman, debut on Wednesday. We will have full predictions at the usual time, but we should at least discuss these two films before everyone has a chance to see them.
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December 11th, 2017
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. Sort of. (WGA announced the nominations for TV, radio, etc., but not their theatrical nods.) It is still very early in the year, so it is hard to say if there are any real snubs, or if there are any real favorites. The Shape of Water led the way with seven nominations, while The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were right behind with six a piece.
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December 1st, 2017
The box office was mostly as expected during November. Granted, Thor: Ragnarok over-performed and Justice League underperformed, but overall there were no real surprises. This means the month started slow, but we got a couple of wins in the end and that bodes well going into the final month of the year. That said, December is a weird month. There are five weekends, but only seven films that I’m sure are opening truly wide. Additionally, five of those seven films are opening Christmas weekend. I’ve never seen a month this lop-sided. There are no real wide releases the first two weeks of the month, so we will likely start slow again, but when The Last Jedi debuts, we should see explosive growth at the box office. It will open with more than any film last December made and that should help 2017 cut into 2016’s lead. 2017 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but the month could do well enough to cut 2016’s lead to under $250 million. That’s my goal. If that happens, I will be happy.
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November 13th, 2017
Musical starring Hugh Jackman, Zac Efron, Rebecca Ferguson, and Michelle Williams opens December 20 ... Full Movie Details.
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July 11th, 2017
Drama starring Hugh Jackman, Zac Efron, Rebecca Ferguson, and Michelle Williams opens December 25 ... Full Movie Details.
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