Home Market Releases for May 8th, 2018

May 8th, 2018

It is a terrible week on the home market. Of the new releases getting full mentions, only two of them would be included in an average week, while most of the rest would be relegated to Secondary Blu-ray releases. Why is it so bad this week? Because Black Panther is coming out on Video on Demand and it is scaring away all of the competition. Fortunately, it is the Pick of the Week, but I would wait for the DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack to come out next week to buy it. The next best option is Gun Crazy on Blu-ray. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Uprising Wins, but Falls Compared to Original

March 27th, 2018

Pacific Rim: Uprising opened in first place over the weekend. In fact, it opened better than expected with $28.12 million. Unfortunately, that’s nowhere near enough compared to its production budget, so it will need international numbers to thrive. Black Panther was finally removed from top spot, but it also held on better than expected with $17.10 million. As for the rest of the new releases, they ranged from serious disappointments like Sherlock Gnomes and Paul, Apostle of Christ, to complete bombs like Midnight Sun and Unsane. The overall box office slipped just 2.0% from last week earning $129 million. However, this is 36% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018’s lead has completely evaporated and it is now $60 million or $2.1% behind 2017’s pace at $2.64 billion to $2.69 billion. I don’t see that improving this coming weekend. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up

March 20th, 2018

As predicted, Black Panther remained in first place on the weekend chart. Tomb Raider had an okay opening in second place, while I Can Only Imagine was the biggest positive surprise of the weekend. Love, Simon had a solid opening, especially compared to its production budget. The less said about 7 Days in Entebbe, the better. Overall, the weekend box office was down 4.8% from last weekend to just $132 million. This is 49% lower than this weekend last year. A 49% decline usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays, but in this case it’s due to Beauty and the Beast’s debut. 2018 is still ahead of 2017, albeit by a fraction of last week’s lead at just $66 million or 2.8%. In fact, with a margin of just $2.46 billion to $2.39 billion, it is very likely 2018 will lose its lead before the next weekend begins. More...

International Box Office: Operation Red Sea Dives into a Sea of Green with $107 million

February 28th, 2018

Operation Red Sea climbed into first place with $107 million in five markets for an international total of $336 million. Of this, the film earned $107.02 million in its native China for a two-week total of $335.81 million there. Amazingly, this was 46% higher than its opening weekend. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Another Week, Another Set of Records for Black Panther

February 26th, 2018

Almost everyone expected Black Panther to earn first place over the weekend. I doubt there were many people who expected this. The film fell just 45% earning $111.66 million for a ten-day total of $403.61 million, helping the film make appearances on a number of record charts, including; second biggest second weekend of release, second fastest to $400 million, etc. The new releases matched expectations, more or less, with Game Night earning second place and coming within a rounding error of our prediction. Overall, the box office earned $192 million. This is 33% lower than last weekend; however, this is a good hold for a post-holiday weekend. Compared to last year, the box office was up by 55% and this is a much more important number. Year-to-date, 2018 has a 14% / $230 million lead over 2017, at $1.88 billion to $1.65 billion. This is great news at this point of the year, but we really need to stretch that lead to over $300 million in the next two plus weeks, before we are dealing with Beauty and the Beast, if we can’t, then this lead could evaporate before the end of March. More...

Weekend Predictions: Are the New Releases Brave Enough to Take On Black Panther?

February 22nd, 2018

Three wide releases are attempting to take on Black Panther at the box office; none will be successful. Game Night is the widest release of the week and its reviews are amazing. Annihilation is barely opening in 2,000 theaters, but its reviews are even better. Then there’s Every Day, which is just hoping to not get lost in the crowd. All three new releases combined won’t earn half as much as Black Panther will earn this weekend, so the real competition for the returning box office champ is this weekend last year. Get Out debuted with $33.38 million, while the total box office was $123.61 million. Black Panther won’t get to $123.61 million, but it should do well enough to keep 2018 significantly ahead of 2017. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Black Panther Re-Writes the Record Book

February 20th, 2018

Black Panther destroyed expectations over the Presidents Day long weekend earning $202.00 million / $242.16 million over the 3-day / 4-day weekend. The list of records this film broke seems endless, but we will get to that in a bit. Unfortunately, the two other new releases, Early Man and Samson, both bombed. On a more positive note, the total box office rose 103% from last weekend reaching $285 million. This is the third-biggest weekend of all-time, and the biggest non-December weekend. This is also 92% higher than the same weekend last year. Even if we use Presidents Day of last year, 2018 was still 51% higher. More importantly, 2018 completely erased the small deficit it had and is now ahead of 2017 by $120 million or 8% at $1.62 billion to $1.50 billion. More impressively, 2018 is even ahead of 2017 in terms of ticket sales at 178 million to 172 million. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Panther Powers to $218 Million Long Weekend

February 18th, 2018

Black Panther is riding a waving of positive feedback all the way to record territory this weekend, with Disney projecting a $192 million three-day, and $218 million four-day weekend, as of Sunday morning. That gives the film three outright records right off the bat: biggest weekend in February, biggest three-day Presidents Day weekend, and biggest four-day Presidents Day weekend. In each case, the film is topping the jaw-dropping-at-the-time opening of Deadpool in 2016. More...

Friday Estimates: Black Panther Crushes Expectations, Headed over $200 million for Weekend

February 17th, 2018

As expected, Black Panther crushed the competition on Friday. However, it beat all but the most enthusiastic predictions to earn $75.81 million for the day. Add in 97% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and an A+ from CinemaScore, and the film should have good legs over the weekend. On the negative side, it is a monster hit thanks in part to the deafening hype, so that’s going to result in shorter legs. More...

Weekend Predictions: Black Panther is About to Bring In a Lot of Green

February 15th, 2018

It’s Presidents Day long weekend and there are two-and-a-half films trying to take advantage of the holiday with wide releases. However, the only film opening this weekend that people are actually talking about is Black Panther. This film is earning more buzz than any film opening until Infinity War and is widely expected to break records. Early Man’s reviews have been overwhelmingly positive, but it is just hoping to reach the top five. Finally, there’s Samson, which is only opening semi-wide. This weekend last year was the weekend after Presidents Day long weekend, so it is not a fair comparison and 2018 will crush 2017. Compared to Presidents Day of last year, 2018 will still crush the competition. More...

International Box Office: Fifty Shades Earns more than Fifty First Place Finishes

February 14th, 2018

Fifty Shades Freed made its international debut in 57 markets, earning first place in 54 of them. Overall, it earned $96.5 million internationally for a worldwide debut of $135.2 million. The film’s biggest market was Germany, where it earned $10.36 million on 731 screens. It earned similar openings in France ($8.90 million on 700 screens) and the U.K. ($8.22 million in 603 theaters). Add in more first place openings in Italy ($7.29 million on 517 screens); Russia ($6.99 million on 1,430); and Brazil ($6.26 million on 650), and the film was much stronger internationally than domestically. The studio’s share of the worldwide box office is already $60 million, which is more than the film cost to make. Assuming the film gets to $300 million worldwide, which is almost guaranteed at this point, the film will make a healthy profit before it reaches the home market. More...

Theater Averages: Exits is Golden with $11,719, Fifty Shades Freed Settles for Silver

February 13th, 2018

Golden Exits earned first place with $11,719 in its lone theater. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Fifty Shades Freed with an average of $10,234. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Freed Falls to $38.56 million

February 13th, 2018

Fifty Shades Freed topped our prediction by a tiny margin earning first place over the weekend with $38.56 million. Peter Rabbit also beat expectations with $25.01 million. Then there’s The 15:17 to Paris. Overall, the box office rocketed up 49% from last weekend to $140 million. Unfortunately, this wasn’t enough to compete with this weekend last year, as 2018 was 26% lower. That sounds devastating, but remember, there is a misalignment in holidays, so next weekend 2018 will bounce back. Likewise, because of the misalignment in holidays, the year-to-date comparison isn’t particularly useful. 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by 5.0% or $65 million at $1.22 billion to $1.28 billion. However, by this time next week, that entire deficit could be erased. More...

Weekend Estimates: Fifty Shades Finishes with $38.8 Million

February 11th, 2018

Fifty Shades Freed caps the Shades franchise this weekend with a solid $38.805 million debut, according to Universal’s weekend estimate. That’s down from Fifty Shades Darker’s $46.6 million opening, but nowhere near the drop between the first and second movies—Fifty Shades of Grey came out the gate with $85 million back in 2015, although it was helped by Valentine’s Day falling on Saturday. More...

Friday Estimates: Freed Costs Moviegoers $18.5 million on Friday

February 10th, 2018

Fifty Shades Freed dominated the box office on Friday, earning $18.5 million. This is 14% lower than Fifty Shades Darker earned during its opening day. The two films should have similar legs, as they have similar reviews and both films earned B pluses from CinemaScore. Plug the numbers into that equation and we get an opening weekend of a little more than $40 million, enough to put it on pace for $100 million domestically. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Freed Starts Strong with $5.6 million

February 9th, 2018

Fifty Shades Freed got off to a fantastic start with $5.6 million from its previews on Thursday. This is nearly identical to the $5.72 million earned by Fifty Shades Darker. Add in the slight improvement in Tomatometer scores and I think we might have been a little pessimistic in our prediction. We will get a better idea where the film is at tomorrow, but for now, I’m bumping our prediction from $38 million to $42 million. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the Final Grey Film Open in the Black?

February 8th, 2018

As the weekend approaches, there’s only one film that everyone is talking about: Black Panther. The film’s reviews are nearly 100% positive and Fandango announced its presales are the best for any pre-summer release. Unfortunately, it doesn’t open until next weekend. This week we have to settle for Fifty Shades Freed, Peter Rabbit, and The 15:17 to Paris. Fifty Shades Freed is widely expected to be the biggest hit released in 2018, at least so far. On the other hand, its reviews and the Fangirl Effect strongly suggest very short legs. Peter Rabbit is a family film and even though it has direct competition next weekend, it should have the best legs on this week’s list. Finally there’s The 15:17 to Paris, which is not living up to expectations with critics and this will likely hurt its box office chances. This weekend last year was Presidents Day long Weekend. 2018 is going to get absolutely destroyed in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Estimates: Jumanji and Greatest Showman in Record Territory

February 4th, 2018

In spite of a decent opening, Winchester is proving to be no match for Jumanji this weekend. The holiday holdover returns to top spot on the chart in its seventh weekend with $11 million, down 32% from last time out. That makes it four weekends at the top of the chart for Jumanji, after opening in second place back on December 20. One needs to go back the best part of 30 years to find a film that matches that performance. More...

2018 Preview: February

February 1st, 2018

2018 got off to a good start and January more or less held its ground when compared to 2017. There were some misses, but surprise holdovers made up the difference. Looking forward, February will be dominated by Black Panther. In fact, it will very likely make more during its opening weekend than the second place film, Fifty Shades Freed, will likely make in total. Black Panther likely won’t break records, but it could come close, while Fifty Shade Freed and Peter Rabbit both have a 50/50 shot at $100 million. Last February, The Lego Batman Movie both earned $175 million, while Fifty Shades Darker earned over $100 million. Black Panther will easily beat any film from last February; in fact, it could earn more than the top two films earned combined. As long as the rest of the box office isn’t a complete disaster, February should help 2018 earn a significant edge over 2017 in the year-over-year comparisons. More...

Fifty Shades Freed Trailer

November 6th, 2017

Erotic drama starring Dakota Johnson and Jamie Dornan, opens February 9 ... Full Movie Details. More...