Weekend predictions: will Don't Worry, Darling’s strong previews translate into a great opening weekend?

September 23rd, 2022

After a months-long (social) media frenzy, Don’t Worry, Darling finally hits theaters this weekend, and Warner Bros. and theater owners had enough confidence in the film to book it in 4,113 movie houses, the widest opening since Bullet Train at the beginning of August. That film earned $4.6 million in previews on its way to a $30-million opening weekend. Now, Don’t Worry, Darling is off to a promising start itself, with $3.1 million in previews, which includes special event IMAX screenings on Monday. Will that translate into a big opening weekend? Here’s what our model thinks… More...

Weekend predictions: The Woman King kicks off Fall Season with a $20-million opening in its sights

September 16th, 2022

After a long end-of-Summer lull, The Woman King is kicking off the Fall Season in movie theaters this weekend, and Sony will be hoping that it becomes the first film to hit $50 million at the box office since Bullet Train, which was released by the same studio all the way back on August 5. Woman King doesn’t look like it will be challenged at the top of the chart, but an incredible nine new releases have some sort of shot at opening in the top ten. More...

Weekend predictions: Barbarian the favorite going into brutally slow weekend

September 9th, 2022

The weekend after Labor Day is traditionally the slowest one of the year at the box office. But, to get the good news out of the way, there’s a good chance that won’t be the case this year, with the weekend of January 28 looking like it will hold on to that crown. The fact we’ll probably top the $34.8 million earned at the box office on the last weekend of January is down to three new wide releases, albeit ones that probably won’t set records at the box office. More...

Weekend predictions: a wide-open race for number one

September 2nd, 2022

This weekend at the box office is a forecaster’s nightmare, with a two new wide releases that are only playing in 1,880 and 1,184 theaters, a classic re-release that’s opening in 1,246 locations, and a recent blockbuster getting a re-release in 3,935 theaters. Making things even harder to predict is that tickets will only be $3 each at thousands of theaters on National Cinema Day on Saturday (see the Regal, Cinemark, and Marcus Theatres sites, and check your local listings—and note that the UK has National Cinema Day on Saturday too). There are four films that have a realistic chance of winning the weekend: Spider-Man: No Way Home, Bullet Train, Top Gun: Maverick, and (even though it’s a rank outsider) DC League of Super Pets. Any one of them would be a highly unusual box office winner, given how long all of them have been in theaters, but that’s mainly the result of a highly unusual lack of major new releases. More...

Weekend predictions: The Invitation favorite for narrow weekend win

August 26th, 2022

The theatrical market officially hits the doldrums this weekend, with no films looking likely to top $10 million, and a combined weekend for all films hovering somewhere around the $50 million–$60 million mark—the lowest figure since February. Hopes ride on The Invitation and Three Thousand Years of Longing, both of which look like they will appeal to niche audiences that are too small to propel them to big debuts. The Invitation has the edge as we go into the weekend. More...

Weekend predictions: Bullet Train favorite to top slow weekend

August 12th, 2022

The dog days of Summer are upon us. While there are three new wide releases this weekend, none of them are likely to challenge Bullet Train at the top of the chart. In fact, there’s a decent chance that the top seven will be identical to last week, with the new releases struggling to break into the top 10. There’s quite a bit of uncertainty though, and the new films could surprise, particularly given the lack of competition and their potential to reach niche audiences. More...

Weekend predictions: Bullet Train shooting for $30-million opening

August 5th, 2022

Two new wide releases hit theaters this weekend, each looking to find what might be described as a “big niche” audience. Bullet Train is looking to draw in fans of high-speed action, while Easter Sunday is the kind of family comedy that we’ve hardly seen in the last couple of years. With this Summer’s blockbusters beginning to play out, both of the new entrants could find a decent crowd, although Bullet Train will end up topping the chart and has already booked $4.6 million from Thursday previews. More...