Weekend predictions: The Woman King kicks off Fall Season with a $20-million opening in its sights

September 16, 2022

The Woman King

After a long end-of-Summer lull, The Woman King is kicking off the Fall Season in movie theaters this weekend, and Sony will be hoping that it becomes the first film to hit $50 million at the box office since Bullet Train, which was released by the same studio all the way back on August 5. Woman King doesn’t look like it will be challenged at the top of the chart, but an incredible nine new releases have some sort of shot at opening in the top ten.

That means a lot of number-crunching in this week’s prediction column.

First up, here’s what our model thought of The Woman King’s prospects before we had Thursday preview numbers…

Non-sequel action movies tend to land around the mid-20 millions on opening weekend traditionally, with some notable hits and misses in the list above. With our pandemic adjustment now sitting at a healthy 94%, the model thought something in the low 20s was in its sights, given a very healthy theater count. Our audience tracking confirms a number somewhere in that region.

The preview numbers say much the same thing…

A film like this can hope to do something over 10 times its preview number on opening weekend. Anything less than $17 million would be a clear miss at this point, and $20 million is well within the film’s sights.

Pearl is the sequel/prequel to X, which opened with $4.3 million back in March. Given the recovery in the market since then, and a start in around 3,000 theaters, Pearl could do a little bit better. Personally, I’m doubtful that it can hit $5.7 million, but the model has proven me wrong many times. Matching its predecessor with around $4 million is probably a good benchmark.

I’m more confident that the model is being overly optimistic about the chances for See How They Run. Murder mysteries are back in fashion at the moment, and the film is getting decent reviews, so it could do reasonably well. I feel like $3 million is a safer target than $5 million though, and the model is being skewed by the breakout success of Knives Out and Murder on the Orient Express, among others.

I hesitate to say that we have a prediction for the David Bowie documentary Moonage Daydream, but the above analysis does at least give a sense of what the film might do in its weekend in IMAX theaters. A place in the top 10 is definitely on the cards, although it might be a stretch given how many films are coming out this weekend. I think the film should top $1 million though.

Here’s what our model thinks the top 10 as a whole will look like…

The three biggest new releases have a shot at filling out the top three spots on the chart, but, as noted above, See How They Run might have to settle for something a little lower. What seems certain is that The Woman King will come out on top.

The number above for Clerks III is a bit of a shot in the dark because opening on a Tuesday is so unusual. I should also note that God’s Country could sneak into the top 10. It’s only the second film that IFC Films has opened in over 500 theaters, which suggests they are feeling confident about its chances. Running the Bases might also find a place in the top ten, thanks to a release in 1,080 theaters. However, this is the first release for its distributor, UP2U Films, which means anything between $500,000 and $1 million would be a decent result.

With Confess, Fletch from Paramount Pictures debuting in 516 locations, and The Silent Twins from Focus starting out in 279 movie houses, there’s plenty to choose from this weekend. Some of these new films will get lost in the crush of course, but one or two of them could surprise, and we’ll definitely have a new-look top ten this weekend.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Silent Twins, Bullet Train, The Woman King, Clerks III, X, God’s Country, See How They Run, Confess, Fletch, Moonage Daydream, Running The Bases, Barbarian, Pearl