Weekend predictions: have we reached rock bottom?
December 11, 2020
In this week’s prediction column, we could focus on the wreckage of the current theatrical market, or look ahead to better times to come. Let’s look ahead, shall we?
There are actually three pieces of good news going in to this weekend. The first, and really the biggest, is that a COVID-19 vaccine should be approved in the next few days, and will probably start being administered next week. Although experts expect it to take a while for the vaccination program to bring the pandemic under control, its start is an important step towards the two things that the theatrical business needs: a low-enough case count for authorities to allow full re-opening of theaters, and public perception of the safety of gathering indoors increasing the number of people who are willing to visit theaters. As of today, our model estimates that 33% of potential moviegoers are willing to risk going to see a movie in a theater. That figure has been trending lower in recent weeks, and is unlikely to rise until the number of cases is coming down substantially.
The second and third pieces of good news are the wide releases of Fatale and Monster Hunter next weekend. Fatale was previously scheduled for the first quarter of next year, and Monster Hunter for December 25. These changes, along with Roadside Attractions releasing Pinocchio wide on December 25, fatten the pipe of new releases, and makes it likely that this weekend will be the low point of the theatrical recovery. It also marks the welcome return of Lionsgate and Sony Pictures to theatrical distribution after a period where, among the major studios, only Universal has been releasing films wide.
So, in that context of hopeful news for the future, here are our model’s predictions for the awful weekend we’ve already started.
With no new wide releases, Croods: A New Age will win by default, and no other film is likely to top $400,000. Perhaps the most interesting question is whether Freaky will squeak past Half Brothers to claim second place on the chart.
If the top six can only muster $4.6 million between them, as seems likely, we will be looking at the worst weekend at the box office since August 14—the weekend before Unhinged became the first wide release in North America after theaters started reopening.
Things can only get better, right?
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Monster Hunter, The Croods: A New Age, Unhinged, Freaky, Half Brothers, Pinocchio