Weekend predictions: Freaky set to stay top as theaters suffer from new pandemic shutdowns
November 20, 2020
Vanguard will attempt to dislodge Freaky from its perch atop the domestic box office chart this weekend. Even though the new release stars Jackie Chan and earned around $45 million in its native China, our model thinks it’ll struggle to do so. But that skirmish is a sideshow this weekend as theaters are taking another blow from the surging pandemic and related lockdowns.
Before we get into the effects of the pandemic, let’s see what our model thinks of the prospects for Vanguard.
Since the film is being released by Gravitas Ventures, the comps we’re using this week come from other action movies with wide releases from independent studios.
This is easily Gravitas’ widest release ever, although they did launch Shortcut (an Italian import) in 725 locations back in September. That film earned $279,125 on its opening weekend, so our predicted $804,000 for Vanguard would represent an improvement for the distributor. If Vanguard has the same theater average as Shortcut, it would make $530,000 this weekend. That’s perhaps the low end of what we might expect, but the pandemic situation could further erode earnings.
Last weekend, our pandemic adjustment, which estimates how many people are willing to go to theaters right now, had ticked up to 36%. The relatively weak performance of Freaky has reduced it back down to 34%. That’s a fairly minor change, but it does trim about $90,000 off the prediction for Vanguard. What really harms its chances though is the fact that it has found only 1,376 theaters to play in. That’s due to the fact that many theaters are closing down this weekend due to new pandemic restrictions. That’s a change that is very clear in our predictions for returning films:
Freaky will be playing in 415 theaters fewer than it did last weekend, in spite of coming off a chart-topping debut weekend. Since films are usually booked for two weeks, the most likely explanation for this decline is that those 415 theaters have closed due to new lockdowns. All the other films in the top six are losing similar numbers of theaters. If we assume Freaky’s loss of theaters is solely due to lockdowns, about 17% of North American movie theaters are being closed this weekend. Add in an expected weak debut for Vanguard and we have a recipe for a sharp decline at the box office overall, and a worrying start to the Thanksgiving season.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Freaky, Ji Xian Feng, Shortcut, Jackie Chan