Weekend Predictions: Will Audience Love Sonic and the Other New Releases?
February 13, 2020
Valentine’s Day and Presidents Day combine into one long weekend. It’s a great early weekend of the year and there are four films hoping to take advantage of the holiday to get off to a fast start. Unfortunately, four films is too many for all of them to succeed and it looks like one or two will fall between the cracks. Sonic the Hedgehog is the biggest release of the week and will likely earn more during its opening weekend than any of the three other films will earn in total. This includes The Photograph, the only new release that is earning overwhelmingly positive reviews. It looks like Fantasy Island will have some of the worst reviews of the year. Finally, Downhill has the quietest buzz and that’s going to kill it more than its mixed reviews will. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Alita: Battle Angel opened with $28.5 million, while The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part earned $20.8 million during its sophomore stint. Sonic the Hedgehog should top that with ease. In fact, there are some who think it will top those two films’ combined weekend hauls. If so, then 2020 will return to its winning ways.
If Sonic the Hedgehog is a box office smash hit, then it will be great news, but also surprising news. The film was plagued by bad PR since the first art was revealed. It got so bad that the studio decided to spend the extra money and redesign Sonic to make him look more like the cartoon character than whatever they were thinking before. The change in the design helped the pre-release buzz, but it was the film’s surprisingly strong reviews that could help it become a serious box office hit. The film’s box office chances have risen to at least $40 million over the four-day weekend, while I’ve seen some talk about $50 million over three days. I don’t think it is going to hit $50 million over the four-day weekend, but it should come relatively close with $48 million. That’s a fantastic start and a blessing for Paramount, which has been in an extended slump.
Birds of Prey missed expectations last weekend, but should hold on relatively well this week, thanks in part to the holiday, but also because of its reviews, which are among the best in the top ten. The film should come close to $20 million over the four-day weekend and I’m going with a prediction of $19 million.
The Photograph should be right behind with $18 million. On the positive side, it is earning the best reviews of the weekend and it is a romance opening on Valentine’s Day. On the negative side, its buzz isn’t particularly loud and it is a smaller movie with a smaller advertising budget. That said, $18 million over four days is a fantastic start for a film that reportedly cost about $10 million to make.
Fantasy Island is on the opposite end when it comes to its reviews, at least so far, as there are precious few reviews to talk about. Additionally, low-budget horror movies have really struggled this year and we’ve hit market saturation, further hurting this film’s chances. That said, the film only cost $7 million to make and it could double that during its four-day opening weekend. I’m not that bullish, but a $12 million debut isn’t bad.
Bad Boys for Life and 1917 will be in a close race for fifth place, both earning close to $10 million over the four-day weekend.
That brings us to Downhill, the latest movie made by Fox prior to their merger with Disney. There’s very little buzz here, suggesting the studio has no faith in the project. Furthermore, its reviews are not going to make a positive impact either. I fear this film will miss the Mendoza Line over the three-day weekend. In fact, it might earn less than $5 million over the four-day weekend. I think it will avoid that, but barely with just over $5 million.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Bad Boys For Life, Sonic The Hedgehog, 1917, Fantasy Island, Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn), Downhill, The Photograph, Ben Schwartz