Friday Estimates: Bad Boys Beat Up Newcomers

February 1, 2020

Bad Boys for Life

If Friday’s estimates are any indication, then the weekend will be a little weaker than anticipated. Bad Boys for Life will easy lead the way after pulling in $5.19 million on Friday. Sony is projecting $17 million based on this result, which is a little lower than our $19 million to $20 million prediction, but still a great hold for a mainstream action film on Super Bowl weekend. This won’t be enough to get the movie to $150 million by the end of the weekend and it likely ends the film’s chances at $200 million domestically. That said, it is still going to be the biggest hit in the franchise by the end of Saturday, so there’s still plenty of reasons to celebrate.

1917 is holding up better than anticipated with $2.81 million, putting it on pace for just over $9 million. That’s so close to our prediction that I’m willing to call it a victory.

Gretel and Hansel earned third place on Friday, but it won’t stay there long. It opened with $2.3 million, which is likely not enough to avoid the Mendoza Line. The film is more front-loaded than expected, so it is not going to do as well as the Thursday previews made it look like it would perform, and it didn’t have great previews. If I were a studio with a low-budget horror move coming out, I would start to panic. Granted, the film’s reviews are not good and its C minus from CinemaScore is mediocre, even for a horror movie, but there’s something more going on here. There is an overall weakness in the market.

Dolittle is projected to earn $8 million over the weekend after a $1.96 million Friday haul. This is on the very high end of our prediction, but not enough to save it at the box office.

The Gentlemen was next with $1.85 million on Friday, just ahead of Jumanji: The Next Level. Both films are projected to earn $6 million over the weekend.

Then there’s The Rhythm Section. This movie only managed $1.16 million on Friday, which means not only is it going to miss the Mendoza Line over the weekend, it isn’t even expected to get halfway there. It is so bad that it might set a record for worst saturation level opening weekend. The film’s reviews are certainly not helping, nor is its C plus from CinemaScore, but there’s more going on here than that. It’s being released by Paramount Pictures, a studio that’s been in a slump for nearly a decade. It has gotten so bad that I’m assuming the studio won’t exist if things don’t turn around soon. There’s already rumors that Netflix is looking to buy them and results like this will just make the asking price go down.

- Friday Box Office Chart
- Thursday Box Office Chart

- previews
- Weekend Predictions
- Theater Counts

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Bad Boys For Life, Dolittle, The Rhythm Section, Jumanji: The Next Level, The Gentlemen, 1917, Gretel & Hansel, Bad Boys