Weekend Predictions: Halloween Gives Way to the Holiday Season

October 31, 2019

Terminator: Dark Fate

It’s the first weekend of November, which is the unofficial start of both the Christmas blockbuster season and of Awards Season. There are four films hoping to take advantage of time of year to create some box office success. Of these, only Terminator: Dark Fate is expected to be a true box office hit. It will likely earn more during its opening weekend than any of the rest of the new releases earn in total. I think Harriet will do okay and could even crack $10 million during the weekend. On the other hand, Arctic Dogs still has no reviews and that’s a really bad sign. Finally there’s Motherless Brooklyn, which is opening in well under 2,000 theaters. This weekend last year, Bohemian Rhapsody opened with more than $50 million and even the high end predictions don’t have Terminator: Dark Fate earning that much. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019 in the year-over-year competition.

Terminator: Dark Fate is the sixth film in the Terminator franchise, but only the first two films earned overwhelmingly positive reviews. It’s kind of amazing that the franchise is still going nearly 30 years after its last truly great installment. This film is earning good reviews, but not great ones; it’s in a battle with Rise of the Machines for the third-best reviews in the franchise. Unfortunately, the last few films have been so bad that I think a lot of fans of these films have just given up and it will take really strong word-of-mouth to get them to come back. I’m not sure that’s going to happen. Expectations for this film range from just under $30 million to just over $40 million. I’m going with $34 million, but if it tops that figure by even a small amount, then it will be on pace to earn $100 million domestically, thanks to the upcoming holidays.

Joker should be next with just over $12 million. This won’t be enough to get to $300 million over the weekend, but it is very close.

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil will be in a very close race for second place; in fact, I think it will switch places with Joker over the course of the weekend. That said, it will likely finish in third place with just under $12 million, keeping it on pace for over $100 million domestically.

Harriet was clearly made to win Oscars. It is a biopic about Harriet Tubman and period pieces about inspirational people standing up to adversity is something Awards Season voters love. However, despite a lot of praise for Cynthia Erivo in the titular role, the overall reviews are not great. It could reach the Certified Fresh rating, as it is only a single percentage point away from that title. As for its box office chances, it has a shot at $10 million during its opening weekend and even though I don’t think it will quite get there, it should be close with just over $9 million.

The Addams Family should be next, even if it will suffer from the post-Halloween slump. It is a horror-inspired film, after all. If it can get close to $8 million over the weekend, then it will have a 50/50 chance to get to $100 million in the end. It might need a push from the studio to get to that milestone, on the other hand.

Arctic Dogs is a third-tier animated film with no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and very little buzz to compensate. UglyDolls had more going for it and that film opened with just $8.60 million. I fear this film could open below the Mendoza Line by earning less than $2,000 per theater. At best it could sneak into the top five with $8 million, but I think $6 million is more likely.

Motherless Brooklyn is the smallest release of the week, as it debuts in 1,342 theaters, and, as we saw last weekend with The Current War: Director’s Cut, opening in so few theaters is risky. I don’t think this film will do as poorly during its opening weekend, but its reviews strong suggest it won’t do well enough to expand significantly either. Look for an opening weekend of $5 million.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Motherless Brooklyn, Arctic Dogs, The Current War: Director’s Cut, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Terminator: Dark Fate, The Addams Family, Joker, Harriet, Terminator, Cynthia Erivo