Friday Estimates: Aquaman Rises with the Tides

December 29, 2018

Aquaman

The Friday box office estimates are almost exactly as predicted, with most films out-pacing expectations by a small amount. At least as far as the top five is concerned. The lower films struggled more. For example, Aquaman led the way with $17.1 million putting it on pace for $52 million over the weekend. The film will become Warner Bros.’ second film released in 2018 to get to the $200 million mark (A Star is Born quietly got there before Christmas.) but it might have to wait till the new year to get there. Internationally, the film has already cracked $500 million with a running tally of $511.8 million as of the end of business on Friday.

Mary Poppins Returns bounced back a little better than expected with $10.62 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $32 million over the weekend. I was expecting just under $10 million, so this isn’t a complete shock, but it does bode well for its legs during January. It will easily match its $130 million production budget domestically and as long as it doesn’t really struggle internationally, it should still break even sooner rather than later.

It looks like Bumblebee will hold onto third place thanks in part to a better than expected hold. It earned $6.82 million on Friday, putting it on pace for between $20 million and $21 million over the weekend. It will top $100 million domestically, unless something weird happens over the next couple of weeks. If it does hit this mark, and ts international numbers continue to be solid, then it will break even early in its home market run. It probably won’t take that long for Prime to get an official release announcement.

Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse is the only film in the top five to miss expectations, and it missed them by the tiniest of margins. The film pulled in $6.44 million on Friday, meaning it will likely earn just over $19 million over the weekend vs. the $20 million we predicted. Into The Spider-Verse matched its $90 million production budget on Friday and should top $100 million on Saturday. This is a great result, but I can’t help but think it should be doing better given its reviews. I fear too many members of its target audience think, because it is animated, it is for kids only.

Up next is The Mule with $3.97 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $12 million over the weekend, which would push its running tally to just over $60 million.

Vice will come within a rounding error of expectations with $2.73 million on Friday and just over $8 million over the weekend. The word-of-mouth is helping this film, not when it was clearly made to win Oscars, as the Busted Oscar-bait label can hurt.

At least it’s not Holmes and Watson. The film fell to seventh place with $2.67 million, meaning it will finish the weekend with between $7 million and $8 million. This is shocking for a film that many thought would earn a spot in the top five. Although not that shocking when you look at its reviews.

Second Act only managed ninth place on Friday with $2.42 million, putting it on pace for just over $7 million over the weekend. Again, it only cost $15.7 million to make, so this is enough to break even.

On the other hand, Welcome to Marwen will miss the top ten, and our low expectations, with just $763,000 on Friday. It will barely top $2 million over the weekend and I wouldn’t be surprised if it lost most of its theater count next Friday.

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Aquaman, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse 3D, Bumblebee, A Star is Born, Vice, Holmes & Watson, Welcome to Marwen, Second Act, The Mule