Weekend Predictions: Aquaman Will Celebrate the New Year on Top

December 28, 2018

Aquaman

It’s the weekend after Christmas and as is the holiday tradition, there are no new releases this week. I guess you could technically call Holmes and Watson and Vice new releases, but they’ve been out since Tuesday. This means there won’t be much new news to talk about. Aquaman will dominate, while Mary Poppins Returns will bounce back, as will most other family fair. I think the same five films that appeared in the top five last weekend will appear in the top five this weekend. Holmes and Watson might not collapse and could grab a spot in the top five, but I personally wouldn’t bet on it. This weekend last year, Star Wars: The Last Jedi barely stayed ahead of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, as both films earned more than $50 million. Aquaman has close to a 50/50 chance of earning $50 million, but the rest of the films will be well back resulting in 2018 ending on a losing note. That said, it should be relatively close and 2018 has already topped last year’s final box office by a significant margin.

Aquaman has made it clear that the grimdark era of the DCEU is over and that Warner Bros. will continue with the more positive tone for the franchise going forward. How am I so sure about that? Because by the end of this weekend, it will top Justice League’s worldwide total. As for its domestic haul, the film has nearly a 50% chance of getting to $50 million over the weekend and while I don’t think it will get there, I do think it will be close with $49 million.

Mary Poppins Returns got off to a slower than expected start, but it should rebound this weekend, as it is a family film playing on the final weekend of the year. It won’t have a monster increase like some of last year’s films had, because last year New Year’s Eve landed on a Sunday, but it doesn’t happen till Monday this year. However, it could still grow as much as 20% to $28 million. Even a 10% bump to $25 million would be enough to match its $130 million production budget, barely. Unfortunately, a lot of people thought it would be over $130 million already, so this is a disappointing run. Of course, Disney had a near record-breaking year at the box office, so they can afford to end the year on a disappointing note.

Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse is the biggest holdover in the top five, it is earning some of the best reviews of the year, and it is a family film. All of this strongly suggests it will have the best bounce in the top five. The film has already almost matched its $90 million production budget and I think it will add another $20 million over the weekend. It is not doing as well internationally, but it won’t matter in the end. This film will be profitable enough to warrant a sequel or two.

Bumblebee will slip to fourth place, because its target audience it more likely to rush out to see the movie opening weekend than some of the other films in the top five. That said, I think it will be close enough to Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse that it might switch places on the daily chart over the weekend, while it should finish with $19 million over the full weekend. Even a $17 million to $18 million sophomore stint will keep $100 million domestically within reach, while it is arguably doing better internationally. (It is too soon to really tell one way or another.) I think the next installment in the franchise, Prime, will get the go ahead if it doesn’t have it already, and the new soft reboot will be a success.

The Mule should round out the top five with between $10 million and $11 million over the weekend, lifting its running tally to close to $60 million.

Holmes and Watson will be next with just over $10 million. It should be doing better given its Christmas Day debut, but its reviews are just killing its word-of-mouth.

Vice will be next with $9 million. Its reviews are fine, but it only managed a C plus from CinemaScore, so its legs will not be long. It won’t last in theaters long enough to become a midlevel hit, especially without Awards Season accolades to boost its box office.

Second Act will be close behind with just over $8 million. The film only cost $15.7 million to make, so STX Entertainment should be happy with its run so far.

Welcome to Marwen will miss the top ten with under $4 million.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Aquaman, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse 3D, Bumblebee, Vice, Holmes & Watson, Welcome to Marwen, Second Act, The Mule, Transformers, DC Extended Universe