Weekend Predictions: Can Christopher Robin Survive the Fallout?

August 2, 2018

Christopher Robin

There are four films opening wide or semi-wide during the first weekend of the August. This includes the only potential $100 million hit, Christopher Robin. The Spy Who Dumped Me’s roller coaster ride on Rotten Tomatoes appears to be coming to an end at the mediocre end of things, but that’s not bad compared to the average August release. On the other hand, bad is the best way to describe The Darkest Minds, while calling Death of a Nation “bad” is a glorious understatement. While most of the new releases are not expected to make an impact at the box office, there could be a close race on top between Christopher Robin and Mission: Impossible—Fallout. This weekend last year, The Dark Tower opened in first place with just under $20 million. This year, the top two films should beat that with ease. Last year’s depth was better, but 2018 should still win in the year-over-year comparison.

Christopher Robin is very likely the last big hit of summer. Its reviews are weaker than expected, still in the overall positive level. Let’s face facts, a Tomatometer Score of 63% is lower than what Disney usually manages, but it is miles ahead of the reviews of most other August releases. Additionally, it is the only film earning a significant amount of buzz and that should help it earn first place with about $33 million. With little to no competition throughout the rest of the month, the movie should have long trailing legs and $100 million domestically will be within reach with an opening like that. It will be a close, on the other hand.

Mission: Impossible—Fallout earned stellar reviews, an A from CinemaScore, and has no direct competition this weekend. On the other hand, it is also an action blockbuster, so falling more than 50% seems likely. I think it will be really close to the 50% mark, giving the film a solid second place weekend with just over $30 million and a two-week total of nearly $120 million.

There haven’t been a lot of comedies to come out this summer, and that could help The Spy Who Dumped Me at the box office. I can tell you for certain that its reviews won’t help. After dropping into the high 20s and then rising to 60% positive, its Tomatometer Score has again fallen to 40% positive. This isn’t that bad for this time of year. I’m a little worried the film will have a Rough Night-like opening, while even on the high end, it has almost no chance of topping $20 million this weekend. I think Lionsgate will be happy with any result in the midteens, so a $14 million debut should be enough.

The Darkest Minds is turning out exactly as I feared it would on the monthly preview, only worse. Its reviews are terrible with a Tomatometer Score of just 16%, while a lot of critics are saying the film would have been okay five years ago, but we’ve seen far too many similar movies come out over the years. At best, the film might compete for third place with just over $10 million, but it could also easily open outside of the top five. I’m going with fourth place with $8 million, but it will be close.

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! has earned a lot during the midweek and that’s boosting its chances at getting to $100 million. This weekend it should fall about 50% to between $7 million and $8 million over the weekend. That could be enough for fifth place, or it might earn fourth, depending on how well The Darkest Minds does.

Death of a Nation is the latest “documentary” from Dinesh D’Souza. It currently has zero positive reviews and its average is just 1.2 out of 10. I don’t think I’ve seen a lower average score before. The film is only playing in just over 1,000 theaters and it could struggle to earn a spot in the top ten with between $3 million and $4 million. If it can’t at least make as much as Hillary’s America, then it will be seen as a disappointment financially. That said, I think it was made for reasons other than money.

- Christopher Robin Comparisons
- The Spy Who Dumped Me Comparisons
- The Darkest Minds Comparisons
- Death of a Nation Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Darkest Minds, Christopher Robin, Mission: Impossible—Fallout, The Spy Who Dumped Me, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Death of a Nation, Dinesh D'Souza