Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for September 11th, 2018

September 10th, 2018

It is not a very busy week on the home market. Ocean’s 8 is the biggest release of the week, but it is not a Pick of the Week contender. In fact, there was only one real contender for that title, Hearts Beat Loud on Blu-ray. That said, Ocean’s 8 is worth picking up, as is Modern Family: Season Nine. More...

Weekend Estimates: Labor Monday Update

September 3rd, 2018

We have some Monday morning updates for the weekend box office and as expected, Crazy Rich Asians continued to dominate at the box office. It earned $6.21 million on Monday for a four-day total of $28.31 million and a three-week total of $117.04 million. It became just the fourth film released by Warner Bros. this year to get to the century mark and it will quickly become the studio’s biggest hit of the year so far, as it will overtake Ocean’s 8 shortly. More...

Weekend Estimates: Crazy Rich Nearly Matches Opening Weekend with $25 million

August 26th, 2018

Crazy Rich Asians led the way over the weekend with $25.01 million for a two-week total of $76.82 million. This is way more than expected and actually in line with our opening weekend prediction. Its sophomore stint decline was just a 6% from its opening three-day weekend; it’s just a 29% decline from its opening five-day weekend. On the downside, this is such an amazing hold that it is hard for analysts to figure out where it will go from here. We can safely say it will continue to pull in millions of dollars for weeks to come, but we don’t know if it will soar past $150 million or not. If it has a more normal decline next week, we will be able to be more sure. Regardless of what it does over the rest of its domestic run or how well it performs internationally, it will be a massively profitable movie and one of Warner Bros.’ biggest hits of the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Crazy Getting Richer over the Weekend

August 19th, 2018

Crazy Rich Asians beat expectations and easily came out on top of the box office over the weekend. The film earned $25.24 million between Friday and Sunday, for a five-day opening of $34.00 million, which is amazing for a film that cost $30 million to make. It not only beat our original prediction, but its weekend estimates have grown since it debuted on Wednesday, which is a very good sign that the word-of-mouth is helping ticket sales. Its 92% positive reviews and its A-rating from CinemaScore back up that explanation. With this opening, the film would have to have terrible legs and completely bomb internationally to not break even. Having terrible legs seems unlikely, but we will know more about that next weekend. As for its international numbers, the film hasn’t opened in any major international markets, so it is too soon to tell. It does debut in Australia before the end of the month, so that will be the film’s first big test. More...

International Box Office: Fallen Remains Tops, but Ant-sized Competition Looms

July 4th, 2018

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom remained on top of the international chart for the fourth and final time. This past weekend, it earned $57.3 million in 68 markets for totals of $669.2 million internationally and $934.9 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend and has no major market opening next week as well, before closing out its international run in Japan on the 13th. The film’s biggest market of the weekend was China, where it earned $14.81 million on approximately 10,000 screens over the weekend for a three-week total of $230.67 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dinos Help the Box Office Hold On

July 3rd, 2018

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom was within a rounding error of our prediction with $60.91 million over the weekend. Additionally, both new releases, Sicario: Day of the Soldado and Uncle Drew, beat expectations, as did every other film in the top five helping the overall box office reach $178 million. Granted, this weekend still plummeted 36% from last weekend, but last weekend was the biggest ever weekend in June, so falling from that figure isn’t disappointing. In fact, it is 4.8% higher than the same weekend last year, which is higher than the rate of inflation, so I would call that a significant margin. Year-to-date, 2018 has pulled in $6.15 billion, making it the fastest year to get to the $6 billion mark. This is also $560 million or 10.0% higher than the same pace last year. I’m going to make a prediction that is the the peak lead 2018 will have over 2017, at least in terms of percentage. More...

Weekend Predictions: Putting a Hit out on the Box Office

June 28th, 2018

After two monster hits in a row, the weekend crashes back down to Earth. Neither Sicario: Day of the Soldado nor Uncle Drew are expected to do much at the box office, but they are expected to open with similar amounts and there’s no consensus which film will do better, so at least there’s something to talk about. This weekend last year, Despicable Me 3 opened with $72.43 million. We will be relying almost entirely on holdovers to win in the year-over-year comparison. I think we’ve got an excellent shot of doing that by a significant margin. More...

International Box Office: $100 million Threepeat for Fallen Kingdom

June 27th, 2018

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom completed the hat-trick with $107.6 million in 67 markets for three-week totals of $561.5 million internationally and $709.5 million worldwide. The film’s biggest opening was in Mexico, where it earned $10.14 million over the weekend for a total opening of $12.09 million. It also did well in South America with $9.28 million during its opening in Brazil, while in neighboring Argentina, the film earned $2.51 million over the weekend for a total opening of $2.75 million. It earned $7.63 million on 734 screens during its opening in Australia. The film fell 69% in China earning $33.96 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $202.07 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Jurassic World and Incredibles Combine for Biggest June Weekend

June 26th, 2018

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom beat expectations with $148.02 million over the weekend, but it wasn’t the only monster hit in theaters. Incredibles 2 added $80.35 million during its second weekend of release, which helped the overall box office become the biggest June weekend of all time. The overall box office rose just 2.3%, but that was enough to break the record with $277 million. This is also 98% higher than the same weekend last year. 2018 has had a string of hits that have dominated their 2017 counterparts, even if they missed expectations, so it is no surprise that 2018 has a lead over 2017 in the year-over-year comparison. However, that lead is surprisingly larger. It has grown to 9.1% or $490 million at $5.85 billion to $5.36 billion. No year has started as fast as 2018 has, and even its estimated ticket sales are the best in the 2010s. More...

Weekend Estimates: Fallen Starts Out on Top

June 24th, 2018

Sequels usually start faster but fall quicker, when compared to their predecessor. However, no one expected Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom to follow suit. In fact, many thought it would collapse. That wasn’t the case, as Fallen Kingdom opened with $150 million over the weekend. Granted, this is nearly 30% lower than Jurassic World’s opening weekend, but it could have been much worse. On the downside, its reviews are almost exactly 50% positive, which suggests weak legs. It did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, so audiences did like the film more than critics did, so we have mixed signals about what the movie will do going forward. Internationally, the film added $106.7 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $561.5 million. This includes a $12.3 million debut in Mexico. More...

Friday Estimates: Dinosaurs Dominate, Incredibles Still Doing Good

June 23rd, 2018

Despite earning mixed reviews, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’s opened on Friday with $58.68 million. It also earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so audiences liked it more than critics, and that should help it over the rest of the weekend, earning about $144 million. Granted, this is significantly lower than what Jurassic World opened with, but it didn’t fall as much as anticipated, so Universal should be happy with this result. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Dinosaurs Stomp the Competition?

June 21st, 2018

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is the only wide release of the week and it was expected to dominate the box office. That was until Incredibles 2 broke records last weekend. Furthermore, Fallen Kingdom’s reviews have fallen below the overall positive level. Now there might be a race at the box office, at least on the daily charts. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Transformers: The Last Knight missed expectations with just $45 million over the weekend and $70 million in five days. Fallen Kingdom had better earn $45 million on Friday alone, or it is in serious trouble. More...

International Box Office: Fallen Kingdom Falls compared to Jurassic World

June 19th, 2018

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom remained in first place with $173.6 million in 51 markets for a two-week total of $370.0 million worldwide. It opened in first place in China with $111.31 million over the weekend, for a total opening of $113.42 million. This is better than the $100.10 million opening Jurassic World managed in that market. While this is good news, there are some issues. The film suffered an average of 60% decline in holdover markets. This includes a 63% decline in South Korea ($5.44 million on 1,230 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $37.74 million.) and in Russia ($2.78 million on 1,541 screens for a running tally of $15.16 million there.) It did hold on better in the United Kingdom, down 51% to $9.38 million in 656 theaters for a total of $33.75 million so far. The film has yet to open in Australia, Brazil, and Mexico, where it opens this weekend. Meanwhile, the film doesn’t open in Japan till next month. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Incredible Doesn’t Even Begin to Describe It

June 18th, 2018

Incredibles 2 became the first potential monster hit since Infinity War to beat tracking numbers, opening with a mind-numbing $182.69 million. It is hard to describe how amazing this opening is. It has rewritten the record book when it comes to animated films and it gives Disney the top three openings of 2018 and four of the top five. This is twice as much as the rest of the box office earned over the entire weekend. There were other new releases this week, with Tag doing fine. Its $14.95 million opening is nothing special, but it should break even sometime on the home market. SuperFly, on the other hand, was a disappointment. The overall box office grew by 126% from last weekend, with Incredibles 2 earning about 50% more than the entire box office pulled in last weekend. The film was just shy of the same weekend last year, while the overall box office rose by 43%. Year-to-date, 2018 continues to have a lead over 2017, and it has grown to a commanding lead of 6.6% or $340 million at $5.44 billion to $5.10 billion. Granted, we are barely halfway through the year, but 2018 is in a great position to break the all-time yearly box office record. More...

Weekend Estimates: $180 million Opening is Beyond Incredible

June 17th, 2018

Incredibles 2 was widely expected to dominate the box office over the weekend, but after the two previous potential monster hits missed high expectations, I thought it was wise to be a little more pessimistic. I was wrong. Incredibles 2 opened with an estimated $180 million. This is not only the best opening for a Pixar film, and an animated film in general, it is the 8th biggest opening weekend of all time. (It could slip a little in tomorrow’s final numbers, putting it in 9th place behind Captain America: Civil War.) The film is already the 50th biggest animated hit of all time and unless its legs are shorter than expected, it will quickly race to the top of that chart. Speaking of legs, Incredibles 2 has the best reviews in the top ten and earned a stunning A plus from CinemaScore. To be frank, perhaps stunning isn’t the right word. Perhaps “expected” is a better term, as Pixar has earned 7 A plus ratings out of its 20 films and has never once slipped below an A minus. Internationally, the film opened in second place with $51.5 million in 25 markets and earned a Pixar-best opening in Mexico ($12.3 million) and Argentina ($3.0 million). In fact, it was outstanding in all of Latin America. It is also the fasting opening Pixar film in Australia with $7.7 million, while it managed the studio’s second biggest opening in Russia with $5.4 million. Granted, the film is not doing as well internationally as it is domestically; however, it is still on pace for $1 billion worldwide, so there’s no way the studio isn’t celebrating this opening. More...

Friday Estimates: Incredibles Smashes Animated Records

June 16th, 2018

Incredibles 2 opened with $71.55 million on Friday. To put this in perspective, it is already the biggest digital animation of 2018 and even if it doesn’t sell a single ticket on Saturday and Sunday, this would still be the fifth biggest opening weekend for a Pixar film and the 13th biggest opening for an animated film. Assuming its 93% positive reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore help its legs, it could top Solo: A Star Wars Story’s running tally by the end of the weekend. On the other hand, an opening weekend of $180 million seems like a solid goal after an opening day like this and that will put it on pace for over $500 million domestically. More...

Weekend Predictions: How Incredible can the Incredibles Open?

June 14th, 2018

Incredibles 2 leads a group of three wide releases coming out in theaters this week. It should open with more than the rest of the box office combined. Tag is a film that many will find a little unbelievable, even though it is based on real-life events. Its reviews suggest a moderate opening, but nothing too special. The buzz surrounding SuperFly is really quiet, but it is being aimed at its target audience in a much more focused ad campaign, which makes judging said campaign’s effectiveness more difficult. Ocean’s 8 should have no trouble earning second place, while it could avoid falling 50%. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Cars 3 opened with $53.69 million, while Wonder Woman added $41.27 million over the same weekend. I would be shocked if Incredibles 2 doesn’t open with more than those two films earned combined. 2018 should win in the year-over-year comparison with relative ease. More...

Theater Averages: 2001 is Louder than the Competition

June 12th, 2018

2001: A Space Odyssey returned to the top of the theater average chart earning an average of $18,969 in 5 theaters. The best new release was Hearts Beat Loud, which was right behind with an average of $18,631 in four theaters. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? was next with an average of $16,394 in 29 theaters. It won’t need to expand to earn more than $1 million domestically, and it will expand over the coming weeks. The final film in the $10,000 club is the overall box office leader, Ocean’s 8, with an average of $10,038. More...

International Box Office: Fallen Kingdom Falls compared to Jurassic World

June 12th, 2018

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opened in first place on the international chart with $150.9 million in 48 markets. The film’s biggest market was South Korea, where it set the opening day record with $9.7 million, but its overall weekend was not quite as impressive, as it earned $15.17 million for a total opening of $26.57 million. That three-day total is better than Jurassic World, but its a drop from the opening day to its weekend total. This could be a sign of weak word-of-mouth and that’s troubling as its reviews have slipped below the overall positive level. The film also cracked $10 million in both the U.K. ($19.20 million in 662 theaters) and in France ($10.91 million in 700), but this is lower than the predecessor managed in both those markets. Overall, the film will have little trouble earning $1 billion worldwide, but it very likely won’t live up to Jurassic World. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Ocean’s 8 has Franchise Best Opening with $41.61 million

June 12th, 2018

The weekend was very kind to Ocean’s 8, as it opened with $41.61 million. This is not only the top result this weekend, it is the best opening weekend in the franchise. Hereditary also opened on the high end of expectations, leaving just Hotel Artemis as the only disappointment of the weekend. Overall, the box office rose 13% from last weekend to $120 million. More importantly, this was 17% lower than the same weekend last year. That said, it could have been worse and 2018 still has a 5.1% / $250 million lead over 2017 at $5.11 billion to $4.86 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Ocean’s 8 Tops Chart, Franchise

June 10th, 2018

Ocean’s 8 matched expectations with $41.5 million over the weekend. If it can maintain this figure, then it will open in the $10,000 club, while even if its final numbers slips a little, it still would be on pace for $100 million domestically. Its reviews have settled to 67% positive, and it managed an acceptable B plus from CinemaScore, so its legs should be average. Fortunately, with a start like this, it only needs average legs to break even early in its home market run. More...

Friday Estimates: Ocean’s 8 Opens With $15 million, Fallen Kingdom Will Steal its Thunder

June 9th, 2018

Two of the three new releases opened well on Friday. Ocean’s 8 open with $15.8 million, putting it on pace for an opening weekend of $42 million. This is the best opening in the franchise. It is also the cheapest installment in the franchise with a $70 million production budget, so it won’t need amazing legs to break even during its initial push into the home market. Its reviews are 69% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore. Neither of those results are particularly good, but they are no reason to panic either. Unfortunately, it won’t have the same legs as its predecessors, as the market has changed in the past decade. Furthermore, films with predominately female casts don’t do as well internationally, so the film will rely a little more on its domestic numbers to break even. That said, Warner Bros. should be happy with this result. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Ocean’s Splits $4 million Opening

June 8th, 2018

Ocean’s 8 opened with $4 million during its previews. By comparison, the most recent gender-bent remake, Ghostbusters, earned $3.4 million during its previews on its way to a $46.02 million opening weekend. The two films also have very similar reviews, so they could have similar legs. However, we have seen a number of films over-perform during previews only to come back down to earth over the weekend, so I’m not willing to change our $40 million prediction, at least not yet. More...

Weekend Predictions: Ocean’s 8 Looks to Steal Top Spot

June 7th, 2018

Ocean’s 8 leads a trio of new releases this week and it might be the only one to reach the top five. It is certainly the only one competing for first place. Hereditary is earning amazing reviews, but it is an art house horror movie and those tend to struggle at the box office. Finally there’s Hotel Artemis, which is earning the quietest buzz of the three releases. Solo: A Star Wars Story and Deadpool 2 should remain strong helping the overall box office. However, while this year’s new releases are better than last year’s new releases, with Wonder Woman’s sophomore stint, 2018 is going to suffer another loss. Next week will be better. More...

2018 Preview: June

June 1st, 2018

This May was an odd month, as Avengers: Infinity War opened on the last weekend of April, rather than the first weekend of May. This meant May started out slowly, but Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story did well enough to give 2018 a healthy lead over 2017. Looking forward, there are two potential monster hits this month, Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and another $100 million hit, Ocean’s 8. Last June, there were four $100 million hits, led by Wonder Woman, which pulled in over $400 million. I think 2018 and 2017 will be an even match at the top, so 2018 will have to rely on depth to improve upon its lead over 2017. More...

Ocean’s 8 Trailer

December 19th, 2017

Thriller starring Sandra Bullock, Cate Blanchett, Anne Hathaway, Helena Bonham Carter, Rihanna, Sarah Paulson, Mindy Kaling, and Awkwafina opens June 8, 2018 ... Full Movie Details. More...