Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Weekend predictions: Eternals’ $9.5 million in previews points to weekend in the mid-70s

November 5th, 2021

Disney’s Eternals, the latest outing for the MCU, got off to a strong start on Thursday evening, with $9.5 million in preview earnings, according to the studio. That’s a bit more than Shang-Chi’s $8.8 million, but somewhat less than the $13.2 million earned by Black Widow. That points to an opening weekend in the mid-$70 millions. More...

Weekend estimates: top three stay the same as bevy of new releases fight over the scraps

October 31st, 2021

There was something for everyone in movie theaters this weekend, but the combination of Halloween falling on the weekend and too much competition made going tough for the six films either opening, expanding, or being re-issued in wide release. The competition hit Dune a touch harder than our model expected, but it will easily remain the top film at the box office, with $15.53 million taking it to $69.4 million in total after 10 days. With another $21.4 million from international markets, it now has $292.1 million worldwide so far. More...

Weekend predictions: moviegoers spoilt for choice this weekend

October 29th, 2021

After four straight weekends with a movie opening to over $40 million, the market is taking a bit of a breather this weekend, at least in the sense of there being a “must see” film for general audiences. However, with no less than six films either opening or expanding wide, the number of options available to moviegoers is the largest its been in a long while. Our model thinks three new releases and the one wide expansion will land in the top ten, but Dune is the overwhelming favorite to win the weekend, even if it does fall fairly sharply from its $41-million opening. More...

Weekend estimates: Dune lands with $40.1 million stateside, hits $220 million worldwide

October 24th, 2021

While Dune isn’t quite living up to the most optimistic predictions, it’s doing enough to be considered a success so far, with Warner Bros. projecting it will earn $40.1 million domestically by close of business today. That includes $9.03 million from 404 IMAX screens, which amounts to 22.5% of the nationwide total—one of the highest opening-weekend shares for IMAX in history. Clearly a segment of the population is keen to see it in all its glory on the biggest screen possible. All told, it’ll do $17.8 million in business from IMAX screens around the world this weekend. More...

Weekend predictions: Dune earns $5.1 million from previews, and heads to $40-million or so opening weekend

October 22nd, 2021

Dune, one of the longest-awaited films in recent history, finally makes its domestic theatrical debut this weekend, and Warner Bros. will be anxiously awaiting results to see if it has the potential to launch a major franchise—something that doesn’t happen very often in this business. With a reported $5.1 million from previews on Thursday night, the news is good so far. While that’s somewhat behind the best starts of the pandemic era, it’s a very respectable score for a non-sequel, and sets the film on a path towards something around $40 million this weekend. That’s better than what our model expected, given its simultaneous release on HBO Max. More...

Weekend estimates: Halloween kills it with $50.4-million debut

October 17th, 2021

Halloween Kills is continuing the good run of results at the domestic box office this weekend with a very solid opening, which Universal is projecting will just clear $50 million. That’s easily ahead of Friday morning’s predicted $41.2 million, and the second-best weekend for the 43-year-old franchise, only surpassed by the 2018 incarnation. It also means a hat-trick of $50-million-plus weekends to start October. More...

Weekend predictions: Halloween Kills headed to weekend win

October 15th, 2021

Halloween Kills, the 12th installment in the virtually un-killable Halloween franchise, should comfortably top the box office chart this weekend, even it falls well short of the $76.2-million opening weekend earned by its predecessor, simply titled Halloween, back in 2018. It has already banked a respectable $4.850 million from previews in 2,950 theaters on Thursday, and adds another 755 locations today. Here’s what our model has to say about its likely opening, based on what we know so far. I’ll also dig into the prospects for The Last Duel, and see how the weekend as a whole is stacking up. More...

Weekend estimates: No Time to Die lands with solid $56 million domestically, hits $300 million worldwide

October 10th, 2021

After posting record-breaking preview numbers on Thursday, No Time to Die has shown surprisingly weak legs over the remainder of the weekend, and United Artists is projecting it will earn $56.007 million this weekend. While that’s below what seemed possible as of Friday morning, it’s a very solid number for the pandemic era, and almost exactly the same as our model’s original prediction of $56.8 million. That counts as a victory at the end of the day, albeit one that feels a bit diminished given its strong start. Curiously, by almost every measure, it looks like a film that should have performed well through the weekend, and it might yet prove to have long legs. More...

Weekend estimates: Venom delivers pandemic-era-record $90 million as No Time to Die and Dune both top $100m internationally

October 3rd, 2021

Venom: Let There Be Carnage will set a new pandemic-era benchmark this weekend, with Sony Pictures projecting a stellar $90-million opening weekend as of Sunday morning, easily eclipsing the $80-million debut of Black Widow back in July. That number also represents a very solid 7.8 times the movie’s Thursday-evening preview number, which suggests good word of mouth. The good news doesn’t stop there, with this weekend’s other domestic openers, The Addams Family 2 and The Many Saints of Newark both doing better than predicted, No Time to Die opening with spectacular (for the pandemic era) numbers internationally, and Dune continuing to do well around the world.

First, here’s how the domestic numbers look this morning… More...

No Time to Die Trailer 2

September 3rd, 2020

Spy thriller starring Daniel Craig, Rami Malek, and Lea Seydoux opens internationally on November 12, and in the US and Canada on November 20 ... Full Movie Details.

Bond has left active service and is enjoying a tranquil life in Jamaica. His peace is short-lived when his old friend Felix Leiter from the CIA turns up asking for help. The mission to rescue a kidnapped scientist turns out to be far more treacherous than expected, leading Bond onto the trail of a mysterious villain armed with dangerous new technology. More...

No Time to Die Trailer

December 4th, 2019

Spy thriller starring Daniel Craig opens April 8 ... Full Movie Details. More...