February 23rd, 2015
Once more, entrants in The Numbers Predict the Academy Awards Contest did an impressive job of predicting winners, in spite of a volatile Awards Season. Overall, the top voter-getters in 18 out 24 categories went on to win the Oscar on the night, including all acting awards, all but one of the technical awards, and all the short films.
Our biggest misses were actually in the biggest categories: Best Picture was won by Birdman, not Boyhood; Alejandro Inarritu beat Richard Linklater for Best Director; and Big Hero 6 prevailed over How to Train Your Dragon 2.
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February 22nd, 2015
The Oscar ceremony is tonight and we will be live-blogging the winners... assuming I don't get bored and wander away. On a serious note, while my job is all about movies and I love watching movies, I love paying attention to box office numbers, I even love Awards Season. I hate ceremonies. As per usual, here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions / wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers. If I predicted a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don't think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award were not even nominated, plus a few I don't have a real opinion on.
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February 22nd, 2015
The polls are closed in our 18th annual Predict the Academy Awards contest, and it has turned out to be the most exciting two-horse race in the history of the contest.
After weeks of intense debate among our voters, we have a virtual tie in the biggest categories of all: Best Picture and Best Director. The predicted Best Picture winner is, in fact, a statistical dead heat. Boyhood garnered 47% of the total vote, and Birdman 46%, giving the Linklater epic the tiniest of edges.
Best Director is a clearer contest, but still close, and still a bout between Boyhood and Birdman. Richard Linklater is favorite to win Best Director, perhaps in part because he’s more “due” for the award than Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. As noted, though, “favorite” is strong, given the closeness of this category, with Linklater getting 55% of the votes and Inarritu taking a 46% share.
The other big story about this year’s contest is just how much of a two-horse contest it really is. With 93% of the Best Picture vote going to Birdman and Boyhood, the remaining nominees were left to split the other 7% of the vote. American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything each gathered a handful of votes from The Numbers readers, and Selma and Whiplash are given virtually no chance at all.
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February 4th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Feature-Length Animated Film. For a while, it looked like The LEGO Movie would be the favorite to win the Oscar, then it wasn't even nominated. Because of that, it is a little hard to know what will happen going forward. There is one film that looks to be the favorite, but that was true before the nominations and nearly every expert got it wrong before.
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January 17th, 2015
The Oscar nominations were announced early in the morning, when all sensible people were asleep. There were some surprises, as well as some results that would have been surprises had it not been for the previous Awards Season nominations. Seventeen films earned two or more nods, led by Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which picked up nine nominations, while The Imitation Game was right behind with eight.
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January 12th, 2015
We are still waiting for the DGA nominations to be announced, but we had the first major awards show on Sunday. The Golden Globes winners were announced Sunday night and while there were not a lot of surprises, there are some things worth talking about. Leading the way with three wins was Boyhood, while Birdman and The Theory of Everything each picked up a pair of wins.
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January 11th, 2015
The BAFTA nominations were announced yesterday and unlike most other Awards Season voters, the BAFTA voters gave us some real surprises. For instance, Birdman didn't lead the way. In fact, it was a comedy, The Grand Budapest Hotel, that earned the most nominations at 11. Granted, Birdman and The Theory of Everything were tied for second place with ten each, but it is still strange to see a comedy leading the way.
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January 10th, 2015
The Producers Guild of America nominations were announced and there's not a lot of surprises among the three categories. Birdman, Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and others continue to get accolades, but there are also some films that are being passed over too often.
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December 11th, 2014
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning, at three in the morning, because the people at Golden Globes are under the delusion that news announced at 3:00 a.m. is somehow more important if it is announced before anyone is awake. As for the actual nominations, like with the Independent Spirit Awards and the SAG nominations, Birdman led the way. It earned seven nominations, while Boyhood and The Imitation Game tied for second with five apiece. Starting to notice a pattern here? This could be a really dull Awards Season with very few surprises. On the other hand, predictable means less work for me. Plus, predictable probably means the Awards Season voters are making the right choices, as surprises usually mean someone made the wrong choice.
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November 26th, 2014
This Thursday is Thanksgiving, which means this is Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. In some ways, this is better than last year, as there were a wider number of big releases that would make great gifts. However, in other ways it is much weaker. I can't think of a single big franchise box set that came out this year. There are some smaller ones, like the Halloween Box Set, but while the franchise has lasted ten installments and 30 years, how many can you really say are worth repeated viewing? Fortunately, there were plenty of great films to come out this year, starting with what is currently the biggest hit of the year.
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November 10th, 2014
It is not a very deep week on the home market. Leading the way is How to Train Your Dragon 2 on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack or 3D Combo Pack. The film failed to live up to high expectations at the box office, but it earned Oscar-worthy reviews. If it doesn't at least earn a nomination for Best Feature-Length Animated Film, I would be shocked. So it should come as no surprise that the Pick of the Week is The Compleat Al, which is making its DVD debut this week.
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September 9th, 2014
The weekend box office was an unmitigated disaster. Guardians of the Galaxy was the only film to crack $10 million over the weekend and there were no other releases that came close. The only new "wide" release was The Identical, and it missed the top ten. Overall, the box office fell 40% from last weekend to just $66 million. It goes without saying that this is the worst box office of the year so far. In fact, it is the fifth worst box office weekend since 2000 running 23% lower than the worst weekend from last year. The worst weekend from last year was this weekend last year, so that makes the comparison so much easier. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $7.15 billion, which is 5.1% lower than the last year's pace. Things better turn around soon, or we can say goodbye to any chance to catch up to last year.
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September 4th, 2014
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes rose from eighth to first place thanks to its debut in China. Overall, the film made $51.2 million in 29 markets for totals of $408.0 million internationally and $613.3 million worldwide. It dominated the box office in China with $45.13 million and if it has any legs in this market, it will reach $500 million internationally and $750 million worldwide is within reach after its run in Japan.
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August 28th, 2014
Lucy rocketed to first place with 34.0 million in 42 markets for totals of $104.4 million internationally and $218.1 million worldwide. Its biggest opening of the weekend came from Taiwan, where the movie opened with $6.2 million on 88 screens. The film also opened in first place in the U.K. with $5.10 million on 486 screens and in Spain with $3.32 million on 387. More impressively, it remained in first place in France with $4.43 million in 615 screens over the weekend for a total of $29.93 million after three weeks of release.
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August 20th, 2014
How to Train Your Dragon 2 debuted in first place in China with $26.32 million. This helped the film earn first place on the international chart with $37.7 million in 28 markets for totals of $366.0 million internationally and $537.2 million worldwide. The film is already ahead of its predecessor internationally and worldwide, so the studio should be happy, even if it didn't earn as much domestically.
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August 13th, 2014
Guardians of the Galaxy remained in first place with $47.1 million in 50 markets over the weekend for a total of $138.8 million internationally and $315.3 million worldwide after just two weeks of release. It is already ahead of the lifetime total of The Incredible Hulk and should pass another Avengers film or two by this time next week. The film finished in first place in Australia with $6.08 million on 586 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.24 million. The film was pushed into second place in Russia with $6.01 million on 2,097 screens over the weekend for a total of $24.32 million after two weeks of release. It had a very similar result in the U.K. with the film landing in second place with $5.59 million on 561 screens over the weekend for a total of $23.24 million.
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August 6th, 2014
Guardians of the Galaxy opened in first place internationally with $67.4 million in 42 markets. This includes a number of major markets, led by Russia with $12.90 million on 2,097 screens and the U.K. with $10.70 million on 554 screens. It also earned first place in Brazil with $5.27 million on 472 screens. It wasn't as strong in South Korea with $3.83 million on 575 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.78 million. There was a massive local release in that market, so that partially explains that result. The film also opened in second place in Australia with $2.15 million on 244 screens, but this was just the film's previews.
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July 30th, 2014
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes rose to first place on the international chart with $54.8 million on 12,247 screens in 61 markets for a total of $186.7 million after three weeks of release. Worldwide, the film's running tally rose to $359.2 million, which is still about $120 million away from topping the previous installment, but at this pace, it is practically inevitable that it will get there. This week, the film earned first place in Brazil with $6.86 million on 453 screens for a total opening of $9.10 million, or a two-week total of $9.10 million, depending on what sources you look at. Likewise, it either opened in first place in Mexico, or rose to first place in Mexico earning $6.90 million on 2,392 screens over the weekend for a total of $12.99 million. The film remained in first place in the U.K. with $6.37 million on 574 screens for a two-week total of $28.90 million.
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July 24th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction continues its lock on top spot earning $84.6 million in 58 markets for totals of $662.6 million internationally and $889.6 million worldwide. It is about a week away from becoming the first film released in 2014 to hit the $1 billion mark and it will top Dark of the Moon's international numbers in the process. This weekend, the film opened in first place in Germany with $11.16 million on 645 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $12.84 million. It also pulled in first place in France with $8.91 million on 890 screens. It earned first place in Italy with $3.87 million on 850 screens over the weekend for a total of $5.24 million. Its "biggest" opening of the weekend was in Brazil where it made $16.13 million, but that was with previews. Over the weekend it made $5.71 million on 504 screens. That's a lot of previews. The film's biggest market to date is China, where it has pulled in $306.28 million, including $26.08 million over the past week. However, it has been knocked out of top spot by a local hit.
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July 17th, 2014
There are a trio of wide releases coming out this week looking to dethrone Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. The Purge: Anarchy is the most likely film to come out on top, but the original didn't win over many moviegoers. It opened big, but collapsed very quickly after that. Planes didn't perform much better with moviegoers, but there hasn't been an animated family film released wide since How to Train Your Dragon 2, so Planes: Fire and Rescue could benefit from the lack of competition. Sex Tape is the only non-sequel opening wide this week and that could help it do well. Or the fact that it is not based on a previous movie could hurt it. There is one last film that might reach the top ten, Persecuted, which is opening in 700 theaters. It would only need a per theater average of just over $4,000 to reach the top ten, which is doable. This year, we should have four films that earn more than $20 million. Last year there were only three. However, last year, The Conjuring earned more than $40 million, a milestone no film this year will reach, while seven films earned more than $10 million. This year there will be only four films earning more than $10 million. Again, it looks like 2014 is going to get crushed at the box office.
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July 16th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction remained in first place with $100.3 million in 50 markets for totals of $543.5 million internationally and $752.3 million worldwide. This makes is the biggest worldwide hit of the year so far. Granted, half of the film's international total came from China where it has made $279.75 million so far, including $56.36 million this past week, and the studio gets a very small share of the box office revenue from that market. As for new markets, the film debuted in first place in the U.K. with $20.11 million on 533 screens, including previews. This is the biggest opening of the year in that market so far. The film also did well in Mexico with $8.26 million on 3,131 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $15.84 million.
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July 14th, 2014
As expected, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes earned first place and it finished on the high end of reasonable expectations. Unfortunately, it crushed the competition earning more than four times more than the second place film, Transformers: Age of Extinction. It made almost as much as the rest of the box office combined made, so the overall box office was still soft for this time of year at just $149 million. Granted, this is 13% higher than last weekend, but more troublesome, it was 23% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 is now more than $200 million lower than 2013's pace at $5.57 billion to $5.78 billion.
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July 10th, 2014
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is the only new wide release of the week and since last week's new releases underperformed, it will dominate the box office this weekend. In fact, it will dominate the box office, even if it barely managed to live up to its predecessor. Transformers: Age of Extinction will be well back with less than $20 million, while Tammy might not reach $10 million. By comparison, this weekend last year, there were two films that earned more than $40 million (Despicable Me 2 and Grown Ups 2) and a total of six films earned $10 million or more. 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 9th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction remained in first place with $95.8 million in 37 markets over the weekend for totals of $400.9 million internationally and $576.3 million worldwide. Its best market remains China, where it added $120.61 million for the full week giving it a total of $222.74 million after two. These numbers are important for two reasons. Firstly, revised totals in China put the film's opening there ahead of its debut in North America. Stunning. Secondly, the film is already ahead of Avatar's final figure in that market. Granted, it's barely above Avatar's pace, as that film pulled in $221.9 million after ten days of release, but that is still great news. It held up better than most films do in South Korea earning $8.05 million on 1,096 screens over the weekend for a total of $34.62 million. In Russia, the film added $7.04 million on 2,171 screens over the weekend for a total of $35.38 million after two. The last major market was Australia, where it pulled in $4.54 million on 623 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $17.32 million.
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July 7th, 2014
As expected, Transformers: Age of Extinction won the race to the top of the box office chart and did so with ease. However, that film, and practically every film in the top five, failed to live up to expectations. Tammy still took second place with ease, but it was the only other film to earn more than $10 million over the Independence Day long weekend. Overall, the box office pulled in $132 million over the weekend, which is 27% less than last weekend. Compared to the same weekend last year, the box office was 42% lower this year. Ouch. To put this into perspective, even if you take out Despicable Me 2 from last year's box office, 2014 would have still failed to match 2013's weekend numbers. Year-to-date, 2014 is now $130 million or 2.4% below 2013's pace at $5.35 billion to $5.48 billion. It is still too early to panic, but if things don't turn around soon, the panic button will be pushed.
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July 3rd, 2014
There are three wide releases and a wide expansion this week all hoping to take advantage if the Independence Day long weekend. (There was to be one more wide expansion, but Begin Again is expanding to less than 200 theaters.) Tammy is the biggest of these wide releases and it is the latest Melissa McCarthy vehicle and might be a surprise $100 million hit. Deliver Us From Evil and Earth to Echo were in a close battle for third place on Wednesday, but I think their futures will be quite different. Finally, America: Imagine a World Without Her is expanding to over 1,000 theaters. This isn't enough to compete with the new releases, but it could compete for a spot in the top ten. While there are a lot of new releases, Transformers: Age of Extinction will win the race for top spot in the box office chart, unless something surprising happens. The only thing more surprising than Age of Extinction getting knocked out of top spot would be if the overall box office was stronger that the same weekend last year when Despicable Me 2 opened with more than $80 million during the three-day weekend.
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July 2nd, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction earned top spot on the international chart with $201.3 million on 10,015 screens in 37 markets. This includes a record $99.81 million opening in China, which is basically a rounding error away from its North American debut. It also broke the record in Russia with $21.23 million on 2,171 screens. Its opening in South Korea was nearly identical with $15.88 million on 1,597 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $21.98 million. The final major market of the weekend was Australia, where it pulled in $8.30 million on 623 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $9.56 million. The film likely cost about $300 million to make and advertise, so it still needs work to break even, but this is an amazing start.
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June 30th, 2014
As expected, Transformers: Age of Extinction easily won the race for the top of the box office chart and became the first film released in 2014 to earn more than $100 million during its opening weekend. Granted, it barely made it, but we will take it. This helped the overall box office climb by 20% to $190 million over the weekend. Unfortunately, this was still 8% lower than the same weekend last year when Monsters University repeated at the box office champion. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $5.11 billion, which is 0.3% below 2013's pace of $5.13 billion. This is still close enough that we shouldn't panic, but the trajectory is going in the wrong direction.
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June 26th, 2014
There is only one wide release of the week, but it is a potential monster hit. It is also potentially the last in a very profitable franchise. Transformers: Age of Extinction is the fourth film in the Transformers franchise, a franchise that has averaged more than $350 million at the box office. However, they have also averaged well below 50% positive reviews and the poor critical response could finally be taking its toll. It will still crush the competition this weekend, but it likely won't live up to past installments in the franchise. It will also beat last year's new releases and more than double the first place film; however that might not be enough to save 2014. Last year there were five films that pulled in $20 million or more. This year there will be only one. In fact, there will be only four films that pull in $10 million or more.
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June 25th, 2014
Maleficent rose to first place with $47.9 million in 54 markets for totals of $340.8 million internationally and $526.7 million worldwide. It became the first live-action film in Angelina Jolie's career to reach the $500 million mark. The film opened in first place in China with $22.01 million. Up next for the film is Japan and if it does well there, it could top Kung Fu Panda 2 as Angelina Jolie's biggest hit.
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June 24th, 2014
This weekend was a disaster. Think Like a Man Too couldn't even live up to the original's opening, which is terrible for a sequel. Jersey Boys opened on the low end of lower expectations. Unfortunately, the holdovers weren't able to take advantage of the weak openings and the overall box office plummeted 22% to just $146 million. Compared to last year, the overall box office was down 39%. That's a disaster. There's no other way to describe it. Last year's number one film, Monster University made more money during its opening day than Think Like a Man Too made during the full weekend. It made more during its opening weekend than the top three films this year made. Even worse, 2014 has lost its lead over 2013. Granted, it is still close at $4.86 billion to $4.88 million, or just 0.3%, but it wasn't that long ago that 2014 was on a record-setting pace. Transformers: Age of Extinction should help turn things around next weekend, but I don't think that film will help in the long run.
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June 22nd, 2014
Mid-Summer weekend will produce a near tie at the box office, according to estimates released on Sunday, with Sony in first and second place. Think Like a Man Too will come out top with about $30 million, according to the studio—basically in line with the $33 million earned by the first film in the franchise. That portends a total that will fall short of the $91.5 million earned by the previous outing domestically, and with limited international appeal, this installment will be solidly, but not spectacularly profitable. Enough for a third film? Probably.
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June 19th, 2014
There are two wide releases coming out this week, but none of them are expected to be monster hits. Think Like a Man Too could eventually get to $100 million, while Jersey Boys might become a midlevel hit, but no more than that. There are a couple of holdovers that should be very big players at the box office, as both How to Train Your Dragon 2 and 22 Jump Street will earn close to $30 million over the next three days. On the other hand, this weekend last year there were two monster hits, Monster University and World War Z, as well as a holdover, Man of Steel, that will make more than either of the two new releases this year will make. 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 18th, 2014
There were three films that were in a virtual tie for top spot on the international top ten. Godzilla squeaked out a win with $38.4 million in 62 markets for totals of $248.7 million internationally and $440.2 million worldwide after a month of release. This includes a $37.00 million opening weekend in China. Needless to say, it earned first place in that market. The film finishes its international run in Japan at the end of July and it should jump over $500 million worldwide when it does.
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June 18th, 2014
The winners of our Training Wheels contest were determined and they are...
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June 18th, 2014
There were three films in the $10,000 club, including the top two on the overall chart. 22 Jump Street led the way with an average of $17,263. The Rover was wedged between the two wide releases with an average of $13,860 in five theaters. Next up was How to Train Your Dragon 2 with an average of $11,627. This is good, but lower than expected.
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June 17th, 2014
How to Train Your Dragon 2 missed lofty expectations and that allowed 22 Jump Street to earn first place. Both films opened well and their respective studios should be happy, while the overall box office rose by 15% compared to last weekend hitting $187 million. Unfortunately, this is still 8% lower than this weekend last year. Had How to Train Your Dragon 2 matched higher expectations, 2014 would have won on the year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2014 has earned $4.64 billion, putting it 3.0% ahead of 2013's pace of $4.50 billion, so this weekend's loss isn't a big deal.
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June 15th, 2014
Moviegoers are spoiled for choice this weekend, with the two major openers both scoring over 90% positive reviews, and a wealth of returning films that are definitely worth watching. Top of the heap will be 22 Jump Street, which is set to post a $60 million opening weekend—well ahead of the $36.3 million debut posted by the first film in the franchise. With foreign territories also doing significantly better than last time around, 23 Jump Street is surely just a matter of time (my money’s on two years).
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June 13th, 2014
This weekend, there are two potential monster hits coming out. How to Train Your Dragon 2 and 22 Jump Street both look to improve upon the box office numbers their respective predecessors managed. Thanks to the sequel effect, they should both start fast. Additionally, both should have better legs than most sequels, thanks to their incredible reviews. The rest of the top five should all earn more than $10 million helping the overall box office. This weekend last year there were only three films to earn more than $10 million. One of them was Man of Steel, which earned more than $116 million by itself. No film this weekend will match that total, but the depth this year is much better. It should be strong enough for 2014 to win in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 5th, 2014
Next weekend we could have the biggest hit of the year opening wide. How to Train Your Dragon 2 likely won't have the biggest opening of the year, but it could become the first film of the year to reach $300 million, eventually. It should certainly open better than 22 Jump Street will, which is the film's only competition next weekend. As such, it is the choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for How to Train Your Dragon 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Hitler & The Nazis on DVD, as well as one previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 1st, 2014
It is too soon to tell how May will end, as this story will be published before the weekend estimates came out. (Maleficent had an excellent start on Friday, unlike A Million Ways to Die in the West.) Overall, it was a good month with at least three movies that are on track to hit $200 million, but there was no really big winner for the month. It was nice and balanced. Unfortunately, last May there was a monster hit, Iron Man 3, and 2014 could not compete with that, so it lost ground to 2013. June hopes to turn things around and there are some reasons to be optimistic. All four weeks there is at least one film opening that at least has a shot at $100 million. There are even two films that at least have a shot at $300 million. Transformers: Age of Extinction should win the monthly box office race while How to Train Your Dragon 2 is a long shot to win, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if it did. Additionally, 22 Jump Street, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, and Think Like a Man 2 are all contenders for the century club. Not all of them will get to that milestone, but all of them at least have a short. Last June, there were three films that reached $200 million, including Man of Steel, which nearly reached $300 million. It looks like June of 2014 will be about as strong as June of 2013, more or less. If all films reach their potential, it could win the year-over-year comparison. Unless there are some shocking bombs, it shouldn't struggle so much that 2014 loses its lead over 2013 entirely.
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