Weekend predictions: Bullet Train favorite to top slow weekend

August 12th, 2022

The dog days of Summer are upon us. While there are three new wide releases this weekend, none of them are likely to challenge Bullet Train at the top of the chart. In fact, there’s a decent chance that the top seven will be identical to last week, with the new releases struggling to break into the top 10. There’s quite a bit of uncertainty though, and the new films could surprise, particularly given the lack of competition and their potential to reach niche audiences. More...

Weekend predictions: Doctor Strange set for easy second-week win, $62.6 million the target

May 13th, 2022

There’s really no competition at the box office this weekend for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which will cruise to a comfortable win in its second outing. Our model is predicting a steep decline from its $187-million debut, with a fall in ticket sales of around two thirds, and a $62.6-million weekend on the cards. The two new wide releases won’t come anywhere close to that, although they both come from production houses with excellent records in their particular niches. More...

Weekend predictions: The Bad Guys headed for good weekend

April 22nd, 2022

It’s a busy weekend at the box office, with three new wide releases already reporting Thursday preview results and headed for the top 10, plus the return of two films that grossed over $70 million between them last weekend, and the continued expansion of indie breakout Everything Everywhere All at Once. Going into the weekend, our model thought The Bad Guys should come out on top, and it looks on track to do so. The good news is that all three newcomers are outperforming the model’s expectations so far. More...

Weekend predictions: Secrets of Dumbledore should land in the high 40s

April 15th, 2022

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore posted $6 million in preview earnings last night, a figure that’s remarkably close to the $6.25 million Sonic the Hedgehog 2 made from previews last week. The 11th outing from the Harry Potter franchise is unlikely to come close to Sonic’s $72-million opening though, with our model expecting something in the high $40-millions. More...

Weekend projections: Sonic racing to $71-million debut

April 10th, 2022

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 is having a rip-roaring start to its theatrical run this weekend, with Paramount Pictures projecting a $71 million opening on Sunday morning, easily topping the $58 million earned by Sonic the Hedgehog when it debuted in early 2020. With Everything Everywhere All at Once also posting excellent numbers as it expands into wide release, and Ambulance holding its own on its first weekend, we’re headed to the second-best weekend of the box office this year. More...

Weekend predictions: Sonic 2 set to top Sonic 1

April 8th, 2022

Two long years ago, Sonic the Hedgehog posted an excellent $58-million opening weekend. A few weeks later, theaters were shut across North America, and it would be more than a year before another film (F9 in June, 2021) earned more than $50 million on opening weekend. This weekend, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 will become the third franchise film, after Venom: Let There Be Carnage and Spider-Man: No Way Home, to have a bigger opening than its predecessor since the start of the pandemic. Maybe the history books will record this weekend as the unofficial “end” of the pandemic era at the box office, with Sonic neatly bookending its beginning and end. Even if we have a few more bumps ahead, though, Sonic 2 should cruise past the first Sonic film, and could earn as much as $70 million this weekend. More...

Weekend estimates: Morbius set for disappointing $39.1-million opening

April 3rd, 2022

We’re still at the point where new releases are graded on the pandemic curve, but even so Morbius is heading for an opening weekend just on the low side of decent, with Sony projecting this morning that it will make $39.1 million on debut. That’s notably lower than Uncharted’s $44-million opening in February, and breaks a streak of great openings for Sony’s standalone Marvel movies, in particular Venom: Let There Be Carnage, which made $90 million in October last year, when even Disney’s Marvel movies were landing in the $70-million to $80-million range. More...

Weekend estimates: The Lost City tops with $31 million, RRR makes the top 3

March 27th, 2022

The Lost City looks as though it’ll post a weekend right in line with expectations, with Paramount projecting it’ll earn $31 million at the domestic box office this weekend. That’ll be enough for a comfortable weekend win, ahead of The Batman’s $20.5 million or so. Bollywood blockbuster RRR: Rise, Roar, Revolt will land in third with an impressive $9.5-million projected weekend. More...