December 16th, 2013
It's a busy week with eight or so first-run releases. (It depends on if you count the The Sound of Music Live! as a first-run release.) However, none of them were big hits at the box office. Some of them made enough money to break even sometime on the home market, others struggled more than that, but none were breakout hits. Some of these are still worth picking up. For others, there's a reason they struggled. There are also a few TV on DVD releases this week that are worth picking up, as well as a few limited releases that are strong. All in all, it's a good week on the home market with many DVD and Blu-rays that are worth picking up, some of which I'm looking forward to reviewing... when they show up. This time of year, getting screeners on time tends to be a little harder. I think Burn Notice: Season Seven is the top selection, but I'll have to wait for the screener to make sure. On a side note, next Tuesday is Christmas eve, so there won't be a DVD and Blu-ray Release report. There's only four films worth talking about anyway, so I'm including them on this list. Of next week's films, More Than Honey on DVD or Blu-ray is the Pick of Next Week.
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October 3rd, 2013
Young Detective Dee: Rise of the Sea Dragon opened in China with $17.0 million earning first place in that market and on the overall international chart. The original earned a limited release here and was a great movie, so I'm hoping this film will also get a release here. I'm certainly looking forward to seeing it.
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September 25th, 2013
There was an international film leading the way on the international chart this week. Gwansang jumped into first place internationally with $15.27 million on 1,239 screens in South Korea, lifting its total in that market to $46.58 million after just two weeks of release. It isn't the best South Korean film of the year, at least not yet, as Snowpiercer has made $62.1 million in that market. Meanwhile, Iron Man 3 earned about $65 million there.
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September 19th, 2013
The Smurfs 2 rose to first place on the international chart with $17.52 million on 12,965 screens in 70 markets for totals of $219.56 million internationally and $288.51 million worldwide. It opened in first place in China with $9.93 million on 8,053 screens. It also opened in first place in Australia with $1.89 million on 462 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.04 million.
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September 13th, 2013
Elysium remained in first place with $21.31 million on 10,731 screens in 52 markets for totals of $127.46 million internationally and $212.57 million worldwide. Of that, $11.75 million came from 6,253 screens in China, which was enough for first place there. Not this weekend, but next weekend, the film opens in Japan, Brazil, Mexico, and other markets, so it should be a player on the international market for a few weeks, but it will need help on the home market to break even.
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September 6th, 2013
Elysium returned to first place with $17.89 million on 5,056 screens in 55 markets for an international total of $97.87 million. The film earned second place in South Korea with an estimated $5 million on 588 screens, including weekday numbers. It earned first place in Italy, albeit with a lower opening of $2.06 million on 404 screens. The film has yet to open in Japan, Brazil, Mexico, and other markets, but it will need a lot of help to break even any time soon.
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August 28th, 2013
Jurassic Park earned first place in China with $32.08 on 3,000 screens, but that was for the full week. Over the weekend, the film's international weekend haul was $28.9 million on 3,373 screens in 11 markets for a total of $43.37 million during its 3-D re-release. Even with the tiny studio share in China, it makes sense to release films like this in 3-D there, because they didn't get a chance to see it in theaters the first time around.
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August 23rd, 2013
Elysium rushed to top spot with $24.04 million on 4,588 screens in 41 markets for an early total of $40.08 million. This week it opened in France with $4.16 million on 466 screens, which was enough for first place. It also debuted in first place in Australia ($3.38 million on 317 screens); and in Germany ($3.20 million on 584); and Spain ($3.04 million on 450). It was pushed into third place in Russia with $2.98 million on 976 screens for a total of $12.50 million after two weeks of release. It fell 58%, which is actually better than average for a sophomore film in Russia.
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August 20th, 2013
It turns out Lee Daniels' The Butler was the strongest of the four wide releases. In fact, given its reviews and its target demographic, it could hit $100 million. Kick-Ass 2 really stumbled, which is not that surprising given its reviews, but a lot of analysts failed to predict this result. Jobs missed the top five by a wide degree, while Paranoia missed the top ten. The overall box office fell 12% to $139 million. This is higher than the same weekend last year, but by a barely perceivable 0.2%. Year-to-date, 2013 is ahead of 2012, but by a tiny 0.25% margin. Still, compared to where we were earlier in the year, this is a massive victory.
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August 16th, 2013
Summer blockbuster season has officially ended, but there are four films hoping to grab a share of the limited box office dollars left. Kick-Ass 2 is the clear favorite among analysts, but it is being beat up by critics. Lee Daniels' The Butler is the only other film with a shot at first place. It is earning good reviews, but not great reviews, and I think it will be remembered as busted Oscar bait. Neither Jobs nor Paranoia have a real shot at the top five, nor are they earning critical praise. There were also four films that opened wide this weekend last year. All four of them earned $10 million or more, led by The Expendables II with $28.59, while there were three holdovers with $10 million or more. There's a slim chance Kick-Ass 2 will match The Expendables II, but I wouldn't bet on it. Plus the depth this year is weaker that last year's depth was. That's bad news for the year-over-year comparison.
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August 15th, 2013
The Smurfs 2 rose to top spot with $35.57 million on 11,102 screens in 65 markets for a total of $111.01 million internationally. Its biggest market of the weekend was Germany, where it added $3.16 million on 1,075 screens over the weekend to its total, which now sits at $8.78 million. There is a virtual tie for biggest market overall with Russia and the U.K. sitting at $9.94 million and $9.87 million respectively. Getting to the century mark internationally so quickly is good news for the studio. That said, it is behind the first film in most markets and I don't think it will finish with a profit, at least not on its own. Perhaps merchandizing will push it into the black.
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August 15th, 2013
The winners of our It's Better Up Here were determined and they are...
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August 13th, 2013
There were four films that opened wide last week and while none of them were monster hits, three of the four of them were solid openings. Elysium opened in first place, but landed on the lower end of expectations. We're the Millers was a bit of a surprise hit, earning more over five days than it cost to make. Disney's Planes had the best opening for an animated film in August. There's not a lot of competition for that record. Finally there was Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, which will cost the studio a fortune. With four new releases taking the top four spots, it should be no surprise that the overall box office was strong. In fact, it rose 16% from last weekend to $159 million. No film was able to match last year's winner, The Bourne Legacy, but we had a lot better depth this time around. This helped 2013 win the year-over-year comparison by 12%. Meanwhile, 2013 has completed the comeback and now has a 3.6% lead over 2012 at $6.85 billion to $6.61 billion.
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August 11th, 2013
The waning days of the Summer season are seeing a glut of films as distributors try to find one last hit. Four films opened in wide release this weekend and, even though they played to quite different demographics, they will ultimately all fall somewhat short of expectations (or, more accurately, hopes). Topping the pack will be Elysium, which is expected to earn $30.5 million by Sunday evening -- a solid enough performance, but not enough to make a serious dent in its $120 million production budget. Good legs and an impressive international run will be needed for this one to turn a profit. We're the Millers will land in second place for the weekend with about $26.5 million, but will arguably have had a better start, with $38 million earned in total since it opened on Wednesday (not to mention a much lower production cost). Planes will be third with $22.5 million or so, which is OK for a film that was originally destined for a direct-to-video release. The real bomb of the weekend is Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, with $14.6 million expected Friday to Sunday and $23.5 million in total over five days.
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August 9th, 2013
The Dog Days of summer have begun; in fact, they began last weekend. There are four films trying to find an audience that is distracted with other concerns like back-to-school, or the last family outing before back-to-school, etc. Will any of the films find an audience? Elysium has the best chance. It is earning the best reviews of the week. We're the Millers opened on Wednesday and did quite well, earning first place, but it's far from a monster hit. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters cost $90 million to make, but barely topped The Smurfs 2's Wednesday opening from last week. That's not a good sign. Finally there's Disney's Planes, a film that started production as a direct-to-DVD film and the reviews reflect that. The Bourne Legacy opened this week last year with $38.14 million, which is something Elysium might match.
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August 2nd, 2013
There are a number of new releases opening wide next week, but only Elysium is seen by a majority of analysts as being a box office player. Some think Disney's Planes will be a hit, but I don't think that will be the case. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters will likely be an expensive miss. Meanwhile, We're the Millers could be a sleeper hit. Elysium will likely open in first place and as such, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Elysium.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Ice Road Truckers: Season 6 on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Mountain Men: Season 1 on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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August 1st, 2013
July was hit and miss at the box office, mostly miss. In fact, only two films really topped expectations, Despicable Me 2 and The Conjuring. That said, 2013 has nearly closed the gap with 2012 and it won't take much to pull ahead. Looking forward to August, we find that it is a very busy month with 16 or so films opening wide over five weeks. Of course, the closer you get to September, the more likely these films will struggle to find an audience, and more often than not, there are simply too many films opening wide to suspect they will all find an audience. On the high end, 2 Guns could be the biggest hit of the month with just over $100 million. The Smurfs 2 and Elysium could pull in $100 million. All three of those films are opening in the first two weeks of the month. After that, most of the new releases will be lucky if they reach $50 million during their theatrical runs. By comparison, last August was not as busy with 14 wide releases. Of those, only one film, The Bourne Legacy, topped $100 million, although a couple came reasonably close. Hopefully we will have more $100 million hits this time around and 2013 will be able to complete the comeback.
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