Weekend estimates: top three stay the same as bevy of new releases fight over the scraps

October 31st, 2021

There was something for everyone in movie theaters this weekend, but the combination of Halloween falling on the weekend and too much competition made going tough for the six films either opening, expanding, or being re-issued in wide release. The competition hit Dune a touch harder than our model expected, but it will easily remain the top film at the box office, with $15.53 million taking it to $69.4 million in total after 10 days. With another $21.4 million from international markets, it now has $292.1 million worldwide so far. More...

Weekend predictions: moviegoers spoilt for choice this weekend

October 29th, 2021

After four straight weekends with a movie opening to over $40 million, the market is taking a bit of a breather this weekend, at least in the sense of there being a “must see” film for general audiences. However, with no less than six films either opening or expanding wide, the number of options available to moviegoers is the largest its been in a long while. Our model thinks three new releases and the one wide expansion will land in the top ten, but Dune is the overwhelming favorite to win the weekend, even if it does fall fairly sharply from its $41-million opening. More...

Weekend predictions: F9 eyeing a $70-million opening

June 25th, 2021

There’s no question which film will top the box office this weekend. F9: The Fast Saga has long been anticipated as a landmark release as theaters reopen around North America, pandemic restrictions are lifted, and audiences regain their appetite for sitting in an enclosed space with hundreds of strangers. It doesn’t even have much competition—$6 million might be enough for it to win the weekend, and it already earned more than that in previews last night. The real question is how much it will bring in this weekend. Given its pedigree and buzz, the minimal benchmark for success is the $47.6 million earned by A Quiet Place: Part II on its Friday–Sunday opening weekend over the Memorial Day holiday. All the signs are that it will go much higher than that.

Here’s what our model has to say this morning… More...

Weekend estimates: Spiral repeats as market braces for Memorial Day

May 23rd, 2021

With no new films opening in over 1,500 theaters, this weekend was always going to be a modest one at the box office as the industry prepares for a make-or-break Memorial Day session. Spiral will repeat at the top of the chart with a projected $4.55 million, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday-morning projection. Its 48% decline from opening weekend is a bit better than expected, and several other films are also holding on well, which means the weekend as a whole looks more solid than feared. It’s still fair to say that A Quiet Place: Part II and Cruella will face virtually no competition when they open this coming weekend. More...

Weekend estimates: Wrath of Man posts solid $8.1 million opening

May 9th, 2021

Wrath of Man will pull off an easy win at the box office this weekend, according to Sunday morning’s projection from United Artists. It’s easily outperforming our model’s prediction with $8.1 million expected for the full weekend. Its strength probably had an adverse effect on the numbers for Demon Slayer, Mortal Kombat, and Godzilla vs. Kong, all of which failed to live up to expectations. With Here Today also struggling, we’re looking at a slightly down week at the box office. More...

Weekend predictions: Wrath of Man and Here Today take a shot at leading duo

May 7th, 2021

Two new wide releases, Wrath of Man and Here Today, enter the fray this weekend, and will be hoping to capitalize on the rapidly-declining audiences for Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer to take them to the top of the chart. While Here Today has the least overlap with the other films audience-wise, our model thinks Wrath of Man will fair the better of the two on debut.

Here’s what the model has to say about each movie… More...

Weekend estimates: Demon Slayer projected to top the chart, but joins Mortal Kombat in a steep second-week decline

May 2nd, 2021

Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugan Train and Mortal Kombat are both experiencing precipitous declines at the box office this weekend after openings that significantly outperformed expectations. FUNimation is claiming a win for the weekend with a projected $6.421 million for Demon Slayer, but Mortal Kombat is expected to bring in $6.235 million, according to Warner Bros.. That’s a rounding error away, and the performance of each film today will determine who comes out on top when the final numbers are tallied. More...

Weekend predictions: Demon Slayer is a slight favorite to win the weekend

April 30th, 2021

After last weekend’s fireworks, business will be much quieter at the box office this time around, with horror movie Separation the only new wide release, and the winner of the weekend almost certainly down to which of Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train falls the least from their strong opening weekends. Our model thinks that Separation will find a place in the top six, but it’ll be well behind the reigning champions. Demon Slayer is marginally favored to top the chart in its second weekend, but the race will be close. More...

Weekend estimates: Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer knock it out the park

April 25th, 2021

After a few pleasant surprises in recent months, this looks like the weekend that the theatrical business has been looking for. Not only is Mortal Kombat beating expectations with a weekend projected to hit $22.5 million, per Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning numbers, but Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train is headed for the second-best opening for an anime movie ever, behind 1999’s Pokemon: The First Movie, with a projected $19.5 million. What’s more, both films are R-rated, meaning that they firmly fall outside the family-film space that has been the brightest spot in the market recently. More...

Weekend predictions: Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer go head to head

April 23rd, 2021

This weekend is shaping up to be a real David and Goliath battle, with indie distributor FUNimation going up against the might of Warner Bros., and looking likely to come out with their heads held high, even if a weekend win looks out of reach. More...