Home Market Releases for April 17th, 2018

April 17th, 2018

It’s a slow week on the home market, which is common for this time of year. The biggest release of the week, The Post, is also one of the best and one of only three contenders for Pick of the Week. In the end, I went with MST3K: Season 11 and awarded it the honor. More...

Home Market Releases for April 3rd, 2018

April 3rd, 2018

It’s a short week for one reason: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which came out last week, but it is still scaring away top-notch releases. There are only a couple of first-run releases coming out this week, Father Figures and Insidious: The Last Key. However, there are also a few films in the main section that wouldn’t even be included in the secondary releases on a normal week. There are a trio of Pick of the Week contenders, including Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, but that’s a late review. The best of this week’s releases are Jane and My Hero Academia Season Two, Volume One. Both are absolutely worth picking up, but in the end, I went with My Hero Academia. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Red Sparrow Pulls In $1.2 million, Death Wish not as Lively

March 2nd, 2018

Red Sparrow had a respectable start at the box office with $1.2 million during Thursday night previews. Although this is an acceptable start; although it is lower than the $1.52 million earned by Atomic Blonde. However, that film was a summer release and opening in the summer helps midnight showings. I’m still comfortable with our $18 million prediction. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases Can’t Outshine Jumanji’s $19.51 million Weekend Haul

January 23rd, 2018

Nearly every film we talked about in our predictions beat expectations over the weekend. This includes Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which earned first place with $19.51 million. All three wide releases did better than expected, with 12 Strong leading the way with $15.82 million. The overall box office still fell 15% from last weekend to $135 million. A 15% drop-off for a post-holiday weekend isn’t bad. Compared to this weekend last year, 2018 was down by 7.0%, which isn’t good, but it could have been much worse. Year-to-date, 2018 still has a small lead of 2.9% or $20 million at $725 million to $704 million. Granted, it is still way too early for this to matter, but an early lead means you won’t need to fight back late in the year like we did last year. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Jumanji Nears $300 million after $35.18 million MLK Long Weekend

January 16th, 2018

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle continues to surprise analysts earning $35.18 million over the MLK long weekend. At this point, I would be shocked if it didn’t finish with $350 million domestically, while I assume Sony has a planned trilogy in the works. The best “new” release of the week was The Post, which expanded into second place with $23.06 million, while the best truly new release of the week was The Commuter at $15.80 million. Overall, the box office fell 4.7% from last weekend, earning $165 million over the the three-day weekend. This was still 5.9% higher than the same weekend last year, and that’s the more important number. It is still very early in the year, extremely early, but 2018 does have a $27 million / 5.1% lead over 2017 at $553 million to $526 million. 2018 could lose that entire lead next weekend, but I chose to focus on the positive for now. More...

Weekend Estimates: Jumanji Rules MLK Weekend

January 14th, 2018

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will come out an easy winner at the box office this MLK weekend. Over three days, the family adventure is headed for an estimated $27 million, for $283 million to date. With another $8 million or so on Monday, the film will finish the holiday on the threshold of $300 million domestically. Partly helped by the long weekend, it will record the 10th-best fourth weekend of all time—remarkable strength for a movie that ran the risk of being over-shadowed by The Last Jedi when it came out at Christmas. More...

Friday Estimates: Post Nearly Ties Jumanji $6.13 million to $5.9 million

January 13th, 2018

There was a two-horse race on the Friday box office chart. In the end, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle came out on top with $6.13 million, for $262.26 million after 24 days of release. Because it is a holdover, it should have better legs over the rest of the weekend, putting it on pace for just over $30 million over the weekend, matching our prediction perfectly. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Mixed Results for New Releases

January 12th, 2018

The Post led the way during previews with $775,000. Dramas aimed at a more mature target audience tend to not do as well in previews as most other films, so this is a good sign. Additionally, the film’s reviews are right on the border of award-worthy, so the word of mouth should be strong. This is right in line with our prediction, so I’m happy with this result. More...

Weekend Predictions: Paddington and Post take on Jumanji over MLK Long Weekend

January 11th, 2018

It is the first long weekend of 2018 and we have four films trying to take advantage of the MLK holiday. However, only Paddington 2 and The Post have a real shot at box office success. The Commuter’s buzz is so quiet that its box office chances have taken a real hit. Worse still, Sony’s treatment of Proud Mary is almost bizarre. I’ve seen limited releases with more marketing push than Proud Mary is getting. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle’s legs will likely remain really long, helping it repeat as box office champion. More importantly, it should help the 2018 box office get a sizable win in the year-over-year comparison. This weekend last year, there were seven films that earned more than $10 million over the long weekend, but only one film, Hidden Figures, earned more than $20 million. This year, not only will we match that number of $10 million films, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle should top $30 million, while Paddington 2 and The Post should top $20 million. More...

2018 Preview: January

January 1st, 2018

2017 wasn’t a good year. It started out well and ended on a high note, but the summer was a disaster and that proved to be too much for the rest of the year to overcome. Fortunately, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle are still doing very well and will help January get off to a fast start. Unfortunately, the biggest new release of January is Paddington 2 and it isn’t expected to match its predecessor at the box office; it certainly won’t top $100 million domestically. It is unlikely any of the Oscar contenders will hit the century mark in January either. This is really bad news, as last January, we had a new release, Split and an Oscar contender, Hidden Figures, which both topped that milestone with ease. 2018 should get off to a faster start in the first two weeks, but overall, this month will end with a loss. More...

The Commuter Trailer

December 5th, 2017

Thriller starring Liam Neeson opens January 12 ... Full Movie Details. More...