Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Feature-Length Animated Film

February 15th, 2018

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. A lot of people call this Oscar the Pixar Award, and look at that, there’s a Pixar film on this list. Is Coco the overwhelming favorite? Or does another film have what it takes? More...

Home Market Releases for September 12th, 2017

September 13th, 2017

Apparently it is Halloween, because there are a lot of horror titles on this week’s list. Some of them are good, some are not. As for Pick of the Week contenders, there are a few of them. If you have kids, then Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Ultra Combo Pack is your best bet. If you are a fan of Sci-fi, then go with the final season for Orphan Black. However, in the end I went with Phenomena on Blu-ray. You can also buy the movie from the Official Site in a Steelbox with soundtrack and pamphlet. More...

Home Market Releases for August 29th, 2017

August 29th, 2017

It’s one of those weeks that are deceptively busy. The biggest new release of the week is Wonder Woman, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand. The biggest overall release is the The Lion King franchise on separate Blu-ray releases, but it’s at least a double-dip on Blu-ray. I think a triple-dip on Blu-ray. If it weren’t for these circumstances, they would be clear Pick of the Week contenders. Without those two movies, the next best is... My Cousin Rachel on Blu-ray. Its reviews are not quite Pick of the Week level, but it is the best of what we've got. More...

Weekend Predictions: Has Summer Ended?

August 3rd, 2017

August has begun, but I’m starting to think Summer has already ended. The Dark Tower was expected to be the big hit of the weekend, but its reviews are a lot weaker than anticipated. Kidnap is also opening wide and its early reviews were good, but that has changed as the day has gone on. Furthermore, it’s buzz is really quiet, so its box office chances are not good. Finally Detroit is expanding wide this weekend. Its reviews are among the best we’ve seen all summer, but it is tough to go from a limited release to a wide release, so I’m not overly optimistic. This weekend last year, Suicide Squad opened with $133.68 million. It is very likely the entire box office will be less than $133.68 million this weekend. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Atomic Nukes the Competition with $1.52 million

July 28th, 2017

Atomic Blonde easily topped The Emoji Movie during previews, earning $1.52 million. However, had the action flick not topped the family film, it would have been a disaster. Compared to other recent action films, Atomic Blonde underperformed Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets ($1.7 million) and Baby Driver ($2.1 million), but at least it topped King Arthur: Legend of the Sword ($1.15 million). This summer, the average action film has opened with just over 10 times what it made during its previews, which is bad news for Atomic Blonde, as it puts the film’s opening weekend at $15 million to $16 million. Its reviews are good, but not great enough to really change this trend. Even $20 million would be a boon after this start. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Cars Take the Checkered Flag?

June 15th, 2017

It’s a busy week with four truly wide releases, led by Cars 3. The latest film from Pixar is widely expected to earn first place at the box office, but it is part of the only Pixar franchise that isn’t a critical darling. Rough Night is playing in 3,000 theaters, but its early reviews are mixed and that's not going to help its box office numbers. All Eyez on Me is playing in 2,450 theaters, but its early reviews are even worse. Meanwhile, 47 Meters Down’s early reviews were 78% positive, but that has since changed for the worse. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases, Finding Dory and Central Intelligence, which earned a combined $170 million. There’s no way the four new releases coming out this week will match that. Even another strong hold by Wonder Woman won’t make a difference in the year-over-year competition and 2017 is going to lose. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Wonder Woman is the Spider-Man of Super Heroes

June 13th, 2017

The weekend box office had a few surprises, some positive and some negative. On the positive side, Wonder Woman had the best hold for a major super hero movie since Spider-Man and is on pace for $340 million to $375 million. On the negative side were all three new releases. The Mummy finished on the low side of already low expectations, while It Comes At Night pleased critics, but not moviegoers. Meanwhile, Megan Leavey missed the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office fell 22% from last weekend to $144 million. This is 5.7% lower than this weekend last year. Fortunately, since this time last week, 2017 expanded its lead over 2016 by about $20 million at $4.90 billion to $4.73 billion. We are almost halfway through the year, so a $175 million / 3.7% lead is solid. It isn’t impossible for that lead to evaporate, but it is enough to be cautiously optimistic about the final tally. More...

Weekend Estimates: Mummy’s $32 Million Debut No Match for Wonder Woman

June 11th, 2017

There are precious few crumbs of comfort to be found from Universal’s launch of The Mummy this weekend. The studio is projecting a $32.2 million opening this weekend from 4,035 theaters. That will be a fairly distant second to Wonder Woman, which is expected to earn about $57.1 million. Even the bright news—that this is Tom Cruise’s biggest global opening weekend—comes with an asterisk. More...

Friday Estimates: Wonder Woman Wows Again with $15.8 million

June 10th, 2017

At the beginning of the month, I assumed this weekend would be a close race between Wonder Woman and The Mummy. I assumed The Mummy would at least win on Friday, but that’s not the case, as Wonder Woman remains the number one box office draw. The film earned $15.8 million on Friday, which is 59% lower than its opening Friday. It should bounce back on Saturday and finish the weekend with $53 million, which is just a 49% sophomore stint drop-off. A super hero movie falling less than 50% during its second weekend of release is simply stunning. Granted, its reviews are among the best of the year, so having better than average legs was expect. That said, a 49% drop-off is still an amazing performance and should lead to more than a few movie executives to look for ways to copy its success. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Mummy Bury the Competition?

June 8th, 2017

Last weekend was a great one at the box office with Wonder Woman earning over $100 million during its opening. This weekend isn’t expected to be nearly as potent. The biggest new release is The Mummy, which is supposed to be the start of the Dark Universe, but its reviews suggest this combined universe will be short-lived. It Comes At Night could become A24’s biggest hit, although that’s not a particularly high bar. Finally there’s Megan Leavey. It isn’t expected to open truly wide, but it only needs about $2 million to reach the top ten. This weekend last year was similar in terms of box office strength. The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist led the way with barely more than $40 million, while there were two other new releases to top $20 million. This year’s crop of new films is nowhere near as good as that; however, the holdovers should make up the difference leaving 2017 ahead in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Wonder Woman’s Wonderful $103.25 million Start

June 6th, 2017

The overall box office bounced back after a weak Memorial Day thanks to two critically acclaimed movies. Wonder Woman led the way with $103.25 million, while Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie was way back with $23.85 million. Overall, the weekend box office pulled in $185 million, which is 31% more than last weekend. It is also 37% more than the same weekend last year. This helped 2017’s lead over 2016 grow by nearly a full percentage point to 3.5% at $4.69 billion to $4.52 billion. More...

Friday Estimates: The DCEU has $38.85 million Reasons to Feel Wonderful

June 3rd, 2017

As expected, Wonder Woman led the way on Friday; however, its box office was a little lower than I would have liked with $38.85 million. (I was expecting $42 million on Friday.) This still gives the film a slim shot at $100 million, although it will likely fall a little short. Fortunately, there are some positive signs we should focus on, including the reviews, which ticked up a point to 94% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. Meanwhile, the film earned a solid A from CinemaScore, which should also help its legs. It could still hit $100 million, if it does exceptionally well during matinees on Saturday. We will know this time tomorrow when the weekend estimates are released. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Wonder Woman has Wonderful $11 million Start

June 2nd, 2017

Wonder Woman had the third best previews for 2017 so far at $11 million. Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($17.0 million) and Beauty and the Beast ($16.4 million) have topped it, while it is double what Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned just last weekend. This represents the biggest previews for a movie directed by a woman, surpassing Fifty Shades of Grey and I'm very happy this film took away a record from Fifty Shades. So what does this tell us about the film’s box office chances? Sadly, not much. It is right were most people were expecting, so I don’t feel the need to adjust our prediction, but there are a lot of unknown factors that could affect the weekend number. Firstly, the film’s reviews are 93% positive and the word-of-mouth should be just as strong. However, the Fangirl Effect could frontload the film’s box office numbers, thus hurting its legs. There have not been enough female led superhero movies to come out to make a judgment at this time. At the moment, $100 million seems safe, but that could change this time tomorrow when the Friday estimates come in and that number could drop to $90 million or rise to $120 million. Hopefully it is the latter. More...

Weekend Predictions: New Releases are Going to be Wonderful

June 2nd, 2017

It’s the first weekend of June and it looks like it could be a monster weekend. Wonder Woman could earn over $100 million during the weekend, while Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie is hoping to hit $100 million in total. Both have a great chance of getting there. Add in some solid holdovers and this weekend should earn close to $200 million. By comparison, this weekend last year was nowhere near as strong with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earning first place with just $35.32 million. Wonder Woman will earn more than that opening day. There’s a chance Wonder Woman will earn more over the weekend than the top five earned this weekend last year. More...

2017 Preview: June

June 1st, 2017

May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead. More...

Contest: Wonder Why

May 25th, 2017

Next weekend is the first weekend of June and Wonder Woman is hoping to get the month off to a very fast start and should become one of the biggest hits of the year so far. (Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie is just hoping to thrive in a counter-programming role.) I’m not saying Wonder Woman will open with $100 million, but it could earn more during its opening weekend than the top four did the same weekend last year. Because it is going to dominate the box office so much, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Wonder Woman.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release). Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Captain Underpants Trailer

April 26th, 2017

Animated adventure with the voices of Ed Helms, Kevin Hart, and Thomas Middleditch opens June 2 ... Full Movie Details. More...