Weekend predictions: Mean Girls eyeing opening in the high 20s

January 12, 2024

Mean Girls looks set to post a peppy opening weekend somewhere in the high $20-millions, based on our model’s assessment of its $3.25 million in previews on Thursday. That will give it an easy weekend win, although The Beekeeper also looks as though it’ll post good numbers this weekend, and several Holiday holdovers are still bringing in respectable business.

Here’s what our model thought of Mean Girls based on its fundamental characteristics:

The main thing working against the movie is that the market is exceptionally weak at the moment, according to the model. Most holiday releases did middling business, and Night Swim was disappointing last weekend. That puts the model’s current measure of market strength at just 59% compared to the average pre-pandemic level.

Mean Girls’ preview numbers are quite encouraging though:

Based purely on the previews, the model thinks something over $30 million is possible, but overall it thinks something in the high twenties is the best bet.

The Beekeeper had all the makings of a $10-million opening weekend according to the model’s pre-release analysis.

Thursday’s $2.4 million in previews is a very good start, and there’s a decent chance the film will top $20 million this weekend:

Again, the weakness of the overall market drags the model’s prediction down.

The final new wide release of the weekend is The Book of Clarence. This is an unusual film, and the model had a hard time coming up with good comparable films before finally settling on a expectation of around $7.4 million this weekend.

The film’s preview numbers suggest Clarence will struggle to hit $5 million this weekend:

The Book of Clarence is a film that isn’t for everyone, and is getting mixed reviews. It could pick up some word of mouth this weekend, but has a mountain to climb.

The other “new” wide release this weekend, Disney’s Soul, isn’t predicted to hit the top 10, but it’s such an unusual release that the model just shrugged its shoulders and said “let’s call it $1 million.” The film could do much better than that, partly because of the long weekend. Likewise, The Color Purple could come out of its tailspin due to MLK Day.

Also of note is Anyone But You, which was number one during the week and has been pulling steadily ahead of Wonka. The long weekend should help the family musical, but maybe the competition between two musicals (three if you count The Color Purple) will give the romantic comedy a shot at third place this weekend.

- Help support The Numbers with a monthly or one-time donation, or by subscribing to our monthly magazine, The Numbers Business Report.

Bruce Nash

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Soul, The Color Purple, Mean Girls, Wonka, The Book of Clarence, Night Swim, Anyone But You, The Beekeeper