Weekend predictions: next three nights belong to Freddy’s
October 27, 2023
After a couple of weeks of uncertainty at the box office, we can be sure of one thing this time around: Five Nights at Freddy’s will win the weekend. That looked very likely based on ticket pre-sales, but Thursday’s previews—a mighty $10.3 million—sealed the deal.
Here’s what our model thought about Five Nights at Freddy’s going into the weekend…
Audience tracking was already looking good going into the weekend, but an opening somewhere around $30 million to $35 million seemed the most likely given the type of film—a PG-13 film based on a video game. That would be a very respectable number, especially given that the film is getting a simultaneous release on Peacock.
The Thursday preview numbers blow that out the water though:
Even if Thursday proves to be a bit of an aberration, Five Nights should earn at least $60 million this weekend. If we use only the preview numbers, $85 million is in reach, but the model puts the final weekend at $72.2 million. That’s a great weekend—probably enough to give it the sixth-biggest weekend of all time in October. Once more audiences are embracing a new film based on existing IP.
This is a really tough film to predict. It’s not the first faith-based documentary to get a wide release, but it’s getting by far the widest release for a film like this. Angel Studios had a monster hit with Sound of Freedom, but that doesn’t give us much of a clue how this film will do.
The model ends up with a prediction of $5.8 million, taking into account all the usual factors. That seems like decent guidance, although honestly the film could land anywhere.
Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.
Five Nights at Freddy’s looks as though it will take the wind out of quite a few sails this weekend. I think there’s quite a bit of uncertainty though, given the Halloween factor (which could help or hurt horror movies this weekend, given Halloween itself is on Tuesday), the Taylor Swift factor, and, of course, the Martin Scorsese factor. The director has a history of strong holds and long legs in theaters. While Killers of the Flower Moon will almost certainly end up in third place, it could have a much better hold that is shown here.
What’s most remarkable about this weekend is that we’ll top $100 million. That wasn’t something we were expecting to see a few weeks ago.
- The Numbers Business Report has box office predictions for all films being released over the next 12 months
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Another contender for box office glory this weekend is the latest from Angel Studios, the documentary After Death…
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Sound of Freedom, Killers of the Flower Moon, Five Nights at Freddy’s, After Death