Weekend predictions: The Nun II looking good for opening weekend in the 30s
September 8, 2023
The Nun II looks likely to scare up an opening weekend somewhere between $30 million and $40 million, with our model predicting on opening around $35 million. That will give it the best opening weekend for The Conjuring franchise since The Nun, which opened with $53.8 million back in 2018. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 will meanwhile debut with less than $10 million, based on its tepid previews on Thursday. Bollywood movie Jawan should be the third new release to hit the top ten this weekend.
Our model’s analysis of the potential opening for The Nun is based on the performance of all movies from The Conjuring franchise, which is, by the way, the top-grossing horror franchise of all time.
Films in the series have fairly consistently topped $30 million opening weekend (particularly if one adjusts the opening of The Devil Made Me Do It for the effects of the pandemic). The Thursday previews were right in line with that kind of expectation for the weekend:
At this point, $35 million seems like a fairly safe bet, with something in the 30s looking like it’s just about a lock.
The preview numbers look weak though. The most pertinent comparison is probably Book Club: The Next Chapter, another Focus Features release aimed at a similar demographic and part of an established franchise:
The model adjusts for the underlying strength of the franchise in its final prediction, which boosts the number to $8.6 million. I think something closer to $6.5 million is quite likely though.
The final analysis for the week is for Jawan, which opened on Thursday. That’s not uncommon for a Bollywood movie, and we have enough data to predict its weekend based on the performance of other Bollywood movies that had a release on Thursday:
The is a fair amount of uncertainty around this one, but a place in the top 10 looks quite likely.
Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.
As the remaining Summer movies fade at the box office (at least for now), The Nun II will be doing the heavy lifting to give us an up weekend at the box office. The days of $100-million weekends for the market as a whole are long behind us though, and it’ll most likely take the arrival of Taylor Swift in mid-October to get us back above that number.
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For Greek Wedding 3, the model looks to franchise releases from the last decade, which gives it just one film to look at:
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Barbie, Blue Beetle, The Nun II, The Equalizer 3, Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story, Book Club: The Next Chapter, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3, Jawan, The Conjuring