Weekend predictions: Fast X could be speeding towards $70-million plus opening

May 19, 2023

Fast X

Another weekend, another film from a venerable franchise. Technically, no super heroes are involved this time, but there’s certainly an element of the unreal in the Fast and Furious franchise, which draws up to the starting line for either the tenth or eleventh time, depending on how one’s counting, this weekend. Fast X will win the weekend comfortably, and our model thinks it could make a fast start.

Here’s what our model thought of Fast X going into the weekend:

One critical question when judging the strength of Fast & Furious films is how to look at the $70-million opening for F9: The Fast Saga back in June 2021. At the time, that was the best opening for a film since theaters were shut down due to the pandemic, and the model thinks it’s equivalent to a $137 million in pre-pandemic earnings. If you believe the model, that made it the second-strongest debut for a film in the series, and to my mind debunks the notion that the franchise has been in a decline since 2015’s Furious 7, which earned over $350 million domestically and $1.16 billion worldwide.

After the weak openings of Book Club: The Next Chapter and Hypnotic last weekend, the model thinks the market is only at 70% of its pre-pandemic strength. That brings the prediction down quite a bit for Fast X, but that puts it right in line with the audience enthusiasm we’re seeing for the film.

Thursday’s preview numbers look a shade worse, but still in the ballpark…

Based on what we’re seeing so far, a $75-million opening looks on the cards for Fast X. There may be some franchise fatigue, and the preview numbers could be deceptive if they have significantly come from the franchise’s fan base. But these films have generally played fairly well into the weekend, and I’d be a little surprised if this one doesn’t top $70 million this weekend.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

The model is feeling bullish towards Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3, which had a strong hold last weekend and is still playing in 4,450 theaters in its third weekend—that’s generally a good sign that theater owners are seeing consistent enthusiasm for a film.

Likewise, The Super Mario Bros. Movie is expected to have another weekend with over $10 million in earnings, which will take it close to $550 million in total.

The rest of the top 10 is fading, and won’t add much to the overall total. But a weekend over $140 million would still be a good outcome. It just requires Fast X to maintain its momentum through the weekend.

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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Fast X, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Hypnotic, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3, Book Club: The Next Chapter, Fast and the Furious