Weekend predictions: three new movies in the top five, but Mario will win for fourth weekend straight
April 29, 2023
No less than four films open wide this weekend, and Return of the Jedi gets an anniversary re-release, but none of them will come close to knocking The Super Mario Bros. Movie off the top of the box office chart.
CinemaCon travel has played havoc with our schedule this week, so I’ll only have time to give the briefest of rundowns of the three new releases most likely to hit the top 10:
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret is looking like it may well miss out on $10 million this weekend, which will put it somewhere just behind (or possibly just ahead of) Evil Dead Rise
Finnish action thriller Sisu is a surprise favorite for fourth place on the chart
The model didn’t expect the film to do especially well, but its preview numbers point towards a good weekend for this quite unusual film.
Finally, Big George Foreman looks like it’ll struggle, with particularly poor preview earnings on Thursday.
Here’s what that model thinks the top 10 will look like.
It looks like an easy win for Mario again, with the more interesting question being whether any of the newcomers can top Evil Dead Rise on its second weekend. My hunch is that Evil Dead Rise will fall a little faster than the model predicts. That might not be enough for any of the newcomers to snag second place though. Are You There God? has the best shot, particularly if word-of-mouth picks up for that film over the weekend.
One final note: we don’t have predictions yet for the re-release of Star Wars: Return of the Jedi, Polite Society and Ponniyin Selvan: Part II, all of which have a shot at making the top ten this weekend. I’ll add them for the report on Sunday morning if any of those films do good business.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Star Wars Ep. VI: Return of the Jedi, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Big George Foreman: The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World, Evil Dead Rise, Polite Society, Sisu, Ponniyin Selvan: Part II (பொன்னியின் செல்வன்: பாகம் 2)