Weekend predictions: Lightyear sets off for chart-topping weekend

June 17, 2022

Lightyear

After a painful hiatus from theaters since Onward debuted in March, 2020, Pixar returns in full force this weekend with an exclusive theatrical release for Lightyear. Although its $5,200,000 in previews spread between Wednesday and Thursday nights is well short of infinity and beyond, the animated adventure should top the chart this weekend, in spite of strong competition from Jurassic World: Dominion and Top Gun: Maverick.

Here’s what our model thought of Lightyear’s prospects before we had its preview numbers:

Our pandemic adjustment is now at 71%, the highest it has ever been, and our audience tracking for the film boosts its prospects by a further 14%. Its release in 4,255 theaters is technically the widest for a non-sequel Pixar film, but Lightyear falls in the “spin-off” gray area—not really a sequel, but not new IP either. When all is said and done, the film should be opening somewhere between $60 million and $75 million based on its pedigree.

Its preview figures give much more concrete evidence of its potential, and they look good for the Pixar film:

The issue with this analysis is that Pixar’s previews are all over the map, with Toy Story 3 earning nearly 30 times its previews over its opening weekend, while Toy Story 4 earned a smidgeon over 10 times its previews. Obviously the market has changed a lot since 2013, when Toy Story 3 was released, and the wide range of results suggests we shouldn’t put too much stock in Pixar’s prior results.

The figures for family movies released since the pandemic are probably more indicative:

A multiplier somewhere between 7 and 13 seems like a good bet, with the model settling around 11.5. That would mean an opening weekend of $60 million based on post-pandemic previews. Averaging across all the models gives a consolidated opening weekend prediction of $72.7 million for Lightyear, with something between $60 million and $90 million all being within the bounds of possibility in my opinion.

One thing that’s fairly certain is that Lightyear will top of the chart, although Jurassic World: Dominion could run it close. If the dino movie drops 61% it’ll post $57.3 million this weekend, and something between $50 million and $60 million seems likely.

There are two unusual factors at play this weekend. First, Fathers Day on Sunday could boost turnout for some of these films. At a guess, that’s likely to benefit Top Gun: Maverick the most. If it has another sub-30% hold it will end the weekend with something around $460 million at the domestic box office and easily top $500 million in total.

The second unusual factor is the Juneteenth holiday on Monday. Since this is a new federal holiday we don’t have any historical data to tell us whether it’ll boost box office. My guess is that it will a bit on Sunday compared to a normal weekend, and also help Lightyear post good matinée numbers on Monday, but it’s really an unknown quantity at this point.

All in all, a weekend that’s down from last weekend looks most likely, and it’ll be a struggle for the market to land much over $175 million. But at least we have three films that will be filling theaters this weekend. Sadly, behind that group, there’s not much left.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Top Gun: Maverick, Jurassic World: Dominion, Lightyear