Weekend estimates: Spider-Man cruises past $600 million with a $52.7-million weekend
January 2, 2022
Spider-Man: No Way Home continues to pulverize its competition at the box office this weekend with another $52.7 million taking it past the $600-million mark in the domestic market. With another $644.9 million overseas, Spidey has now amassed a breath-taking $1.255 billion after 17 days in theaters. It’s now in the top ten films of all time at the domestic box office and the top 20 worldwide, with plenty of gas in the tank as it heads into the New Year.
Here’s how the numbers look this morning…
How far can No Way Home get? Although the Holiday Season makes an apples-to-apples comparison impossible, it looks like a great bet for eventually becoming the third-highest-grossing film of all time at the domestic box office, behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avengers: Endgame. Here’s how it stacks up so far against those two and the current third- and fourth-place holders, Avatar and Black Panther.
The bad news in all of this is that No Way Home’s success has to some extent come at the expense of other potential holiday blockbusters. The biggest disappointment of the lot is The Matrix Resurrections, which won’t get far past $30 million. Our model expected well over $100 million for that film, and its simultaneous release on HBO Max doesn’t fully account for the gap (although it’s a perfect fit for the streaming platform). Sing 2 should top $100 million at the box office, but is falling well short of the $180 million our model predicted. Likewise, The King’s Man, which will pass $20 million early in the week, but was predicted to earn $74 million.
This all raises some challenging questions as we go into the New Year. The performance of No Way Home makes it look on the surface like the market has returned to something like normal. The performance of literally every other film playing in theaters suggests we have a long way to go. Another Sony Marvel movie, Morbius, will be coming out on January 28th. With relatively minor films coming out between now and then, it’ll be a while before we get a clearer picture of the lay of the land. Spider-Man might have several more weeks at the top of the chart ahead of it…
Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Sing 2, The King’s Man, The Matrix Resurrections, Spider-Man: No Way Home