Weekend estimates: Shang-Chi enjoys fourth (and last) weekend win, Dune holds well internationally
September 26, 2021
As expected, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will remain at the top of the domestic box office chart this weekend, although its fourth-weekend decline of 39% is larger than expected. Dear Evan Hansen will post a decent $7.5-million opening in second place, and is getting good reviews from its target audience. Internationally, Dune is making waves, with strong holds in several territories continuing its strong start.
Dune will remain in top spot in Russia, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, among others, this weekend. Warner Bros. is also touting very good holds in the Netherlands (-12%), Denmark (-17%), Finland (-22%), and Germany (-23%). The film will generate a projected $26.3 million this weekend in 32 international markets and on 7,679 screens for a running total of $76.5 million.
Top markets so far are Russia, with $15.0 million; France, $13.4m; Germany, $10.2m; Italy, $5.1m; and Spain, $4.9m. On opening weekend in the Middle East, Dune bagged a good $1.0 million in the UAE and $969,000 in Saudi Arabia. On IMAX it will take in $3.1 million from 167 screens for $8.2 million in total so far.
Dune will arrive in North America on October 22, and will hopefully bolster the domestic box office, which is looking particularly anemic this weekend…
Although Shang-Chi will win the weekend quite comfortably, it’ll be down more than expected. $13.285 million will take it to an excellent total of $196.5 million, and it will soon become the first film released during the pandemic to top $200 million at the domestic box office. It has now earned $166.9 million internationally, and remains number one in some key markets where Dune has yet to arrive: Australia, Brazil, Mexico, and the UK. Its biggest overall market is the United Kingdom, where it has now grossed a total of $25.3 million.
In second place domestically, Dear Evan Hansen is projected to earn $7.5 million, per Universal this morning. That’s actually a tad better than our model’s prediction, but a little behind the pace that it set out at on Thursday evening. The studio can point to an excellent A- CinemaScore as evidence that it will enjoy long legs in theaters, although it will have some challenges holding on to screens with big films coming out every weekend in October. The audience is 62% female, 59% Caucasian, 21% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 7% African-American, and 5% “other”. 17% of the crowd is under 18, 30% 18–24, 24% 25–34, 13% 35–44, and 16% 45 and older. The stand-out number among that list is the 62% female share, which is the highest we’ve seen during the pandemic (although reporting on demographics has been very patchy).
Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Dune, Dear Evan Hansen, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings